http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#comments Comments from 'Why should you care about the type of Economic Recovery' in Thoughts for the New Investor at BiggerPockets.com http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_3606 http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_3606 Nice primer on the various types of economic recovery, and how each might affect the decisions of an investor. http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_3607 http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_3607 Thanks Joshua, as an investor I know how easy it is to get focused on your next deal and forget to look at the overall economy which can bite you ... http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_3610 http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_3610 Well written article. Thank you. http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_3616 http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_3616 You're welcome - Good Investing http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_8895 http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_8895 Mike, I'd be interested to hear where you think we are right now (6.11)in the cycle. AG http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_8896 http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_8896 Many people might think we are in the "W" pattern but I still feel very comfortable with my call for the "L" meaning we are bumping along the bottom and we have years to go until we get out of this. http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_8907 http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_8907 I don't know Michael - I think as all the overleveraging unwinds and all the shadow inventory gets released we're going to see another significant down leg of 15-20% before we hit bottom. I agree though that you've presented a great overview of the different scenarios. http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_8916 http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_8916 Thanks Dennis, my gut tells me if we see another serious down leg coming that the government will jump in again. They could do this by simply Increasing Investor Loan Limits from 10 to 100 (easiest and cheapest solution so they won't do this). They could do another Buyer Credit. They could force Loan Work Outs, they could do QE3, 4, etc Another large downleg would mean ALL large Banks are insolvent, Freddie and Fannie and FHA and many foreign governemtns will be Broke, etc But I will agree I only see two options at this point. It will be a long "L" or it could be a nasty "W" Good Investing http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_8917 http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/788/blog_posts/3617-why-should-you-care-about-the-type-of-economic-recovery#c_8917 From your lips to Geitner's ears on the loan limit increase. That would solve the problem in a year to 18 months tops. But you're right - it makes too much sense, and they are loath to put more money in the pockets of us greeeeeedy investors. I'm betting on (and planning for) some nasty asset deflation in the short term and then QE to infinity when that gets too painful for wall street.