BiggerPockets

Should Investors Focus on Short Sales?

Monday, February 15

YES, because they will continue to be a VERY significant part of real estate investing for at least two years. It is all in the numbers, and “the numbers do not lie”.

Real estate website Zillow.com says one of every five U.S. home owners owe more on their mortgage than their home was worth in the fourth quarter. YES, One out of every Five – or 20% of all mortgages have some potential as short sale candidates or to enter the foreclosure process.  U.S. home values declined again in the fourth quarter, as the Zillow Home Value Index fell 5% year-over-year.  It was the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines.  "The prevalence of markets in or near a double-dip situation shows that we are not yet at the bottom, in terms of home values," according to Stan Humphries,  chief economist for Zillow. 

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) reports that the percentage of loans it insures which are at least 90 days past due hit 9.12% at the end of 2009. This is up from 6.82% one year earlier – a dramatic 34% increase.  For those not familiar, a 9-10% delinquency rate is of significant concern.  FHA currently insures about 30 percent of all new loans for home purchases.  AND, FHA just suspended for one year their 90 day no-flip rule; thus allowing Short Sale or REO investors to sell very quickly to an FHA buyer without using Hard Money.

According to DSNews delinquencies on prime Jumbo loans continue to climb.  Fitch Ratings Service also predicts they could reach 10 percent as early as next month, as serious delinquencies rose for the 32nd consecutive month.  According to Fitch prime Jumbos at least 60 days past due swelled to 9.6 percent in January, up from 9.2 percent in December 2009.  The company says delinquencies accelerated in 2009, nearly tripling over the course of the year.  States with the highest volume of prime jumbo loans outstanding are California, New York, Florida, Virginia, and New Jersey and comprise approximately two-thirds of the $381 billion Jumbo loan market.  So, 10% of $381 Billion equals $38 Billion in Jumbo loans in trouble.  Florida saw the biggest monthly jump of these states. It holds only 6 percent of the market share, but now has the highest serious delinquency rate at 16.6 percent. 

However, in my opinion of primary focus to investors and market values is the approximately $2 Billion per month of Option ARM’s scheduled to “recast” beginning in March 2010 and which will climb to $6 Billion in the month of October 2010.  From there “recasts” will gradually climb to a peak of approximately $13 Billion in October 2011 and will taper down to zero by September 2012.  A “recast” of an Option ARM is similar to a “reset” of a traditional ARM.  However, a major difference is that the likelihood of an Option ARM mortgage being underwater compared to actual value versus a traditional ARM is significantly higher.  Moodys has previously reported that 93% of Option ARM homeowners have chosen to make a minimum payment under their “four payment options” which adds principal to their mortgage balance every month, making a potential refinance very unlikely.  Moodys has also previously reported that the average payment increase at the time of a recast is 63%.  How many homeowners paying $1,000 per month can absorb a new payment of $1,630?  In my opinion Option ARM mortgages present significant profit potential for short sale investors while helping homeowners avoid foreclosure.

Short sales are not for all investors, as they can be complicated and time consuming.  However, the current numbers of short sales are presenting investor opportunity; and I believe their total numbers (and Foreclosures if a Short Sale is not accomplished) will continue to grow substantially until early 2012.  To avoid frustration and excessive time spent with banks I recommend that most, and especially new, investors outsource your short sale negotiations to experienced loss mitigation or short sale negotiation companies.  We can recommend experienced and successful negotiation companies if you do not have one.

Ted Akers and Investor Funding Alternatives, LLC provide 100% purchase financing plus closing costs for Short Sale or REO investors when you have an end-buyer under contract.  Investor financing for flip transactions can be accessed at the website www.InvestorFundingSite.com .

Comments

1. 

   James Ward Reply
   over 2 years ago

   Great post Ted! I think you are spot on.

2. 

   Ted Akers Reply
   over 2 years ago

   Thanks James. I do think the writing is on the wall.

3. 

   Nick J. Reply
   over 2 years ago

   I was asked this the other day by two individuals. One from Florida and the other from California.

   They are/were worried that they're getting into the 'Game' late because they're running into some snags, mostly that others are already doing what they want to be doing by flipping shorts.

   I can't stress enough the importance of making sure you take advantage of the opportunity while it still is present. Sure, maybe you're a little late to the party, but make it a fashionable entrance and you'll fit right in.

4. 

   Justin S. Reply
   over 2 years ago

   I have gotten the biggest discounts on shorts over all other property sources. In addition, as Nick has proved, most if not all of the work can be outsourced and you still turn a nice profit. If short sales are not part of your investment strategy, then you are missing out.

5. 

   Ted Harris Reply
   over 2 years ago

   The remaining 2 year windonw will be looked back upon as a golden era in real estate for many ....

6. 

   Rob Huxman Reply
   over 2 years ago

   The Short Sale industry is here to stay until I retire anyway! I agree with Ted. Do what you do best and outsource the REST!

   Great Blog Ted

7. 

   Rob Huxman Reply
   over 2 years ago

   The Short Sale industry is here to stay until I retire anyway! I agree with Ted. Do what you do best and outsource the REST!

   Great Blog Ted

8. 

   Des N Reply
   over 2 years ago

   Now what exactly does "outsourcing" entail? i'm receiving leads through my marketting for people who are upside down and 1-2 months behind on payments. I really don't want to spend time with all this as it is not part of my overall strategy but i would love to help these people. So if i can outsource the work, and provide the help the need; all while making some coin, i think everyone wins. Please advise. feel free to message me.

9. 

   Ted Akers Reply
   over 2 years ago

   Des, You are in a good position because you have leads coming in. I suggest you will want to do the work dealing with the client and gathering the documents needed for the short sale package. You can also hire/train someone to help with the information gathering and packaging. While short sales can offer strong spreads the flip side of that coin is that submitting to and negotiating with the bank can be frustrating and at times very slow. That is the main function I suggest outsourcing to the pros. In my oppinion companies negotiating full time every day are more likely to know individual bank processes, to get it done quicker, and to get a better price.

10. 

    Ted Akers Reply
    about 2 years ago

    Thanks Rob. Your reply could have been part of the Cat in the Hat series. I do believe outsourcing short sale negotiation is a wise decision for most short sale investors.

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