John, how can we verify the number 'most?' I'm willing to guess that it's easily 90% or higher that try and fail. Perhaps we can go to various sites where people discuss their success and failure and tally up the results? Shouldn't take long, a sample size of, say, 100 would probably give us an answer, right? I'm guessing 9 out of 10 will have failed. [and those temporary adjustable rate freezes Countrywide was mailing out last year don't count.] Fair enough?
Here's what the average borrower is up against. They have to deal with the loss mitigation department that won't talk to them unless they're behind in payments, and people usually find they've been dealing with collections agents half the time when they thought they were talking to loss mitigation. Some spend time trying to get their loan modified only to find out they have to be late to have a chance, and when they fall behind, the collection department tries to squeeze them for money telling them they can't get a modification unless they catch up on late payments or fees. Read all the abuse that happens while people try and go through this process.
When the borrower does finally send in their documents for the modification application (you can usually find what the servicer requires right on their website), much of it will be misplaced. Continuously. At some point, a 'negotiator' will be assigned to the loan, though there's no negotiating going on. When I was dealing with Saxon while trying to help an old woman so she could get a reverse mortgage, I never once was able to speak with the negotiator. He did return 2 emails, though, and couldn't be bothered to tell me whether they'd accepted my refinance offer until AFTER the foreclosure sale date!
For people lucky enough to have their modification package assembled, it has a shot. But they don't know what makes them a candidate for modification and what doesn't. Do you? I mean, can you look at the package and get an idea who will fail and who will succeed? Which person will see a greatly reduced payment, and which person has no shot at all?
Can you do a NPV calculation to make sure the "affordable payment" you're shooting for is not so low that foreclosure becomes the cheaper alternative for the sevicer/investor. Do you know which type of income can be ommited from the calculation or which expenses are often forgotten? Do you know when you need claim the spouse's income or when it isn't necessary? Can you look at the income and expenses and tell if the person is a good candidate or not?
If you can do all this, then there's no point is hiring a company like mine. Assuming you can submit the completed package and get it into loss mitigation, you stand every chance of getting the same result as us (over 96% success rate). I'm being charitable when I say the average person who tries has a failure rate of 90%. It's probably higher. And the modifications I see them get are often disappointing. The servicer is required to serve the interests of the investor, not the borrower.
Shall I do a quick accounting from a Wells Fargo forum or Countrywide forum to see what type of failure rate there really is? Either that or we need to call a lender and see if they'll tell us.
And just to let you know, it's not a magic process. It's based on selecting only candidates you know will be approved (it's all about reducing risk) and using the best processing company around, one that does hundreds of modifications a month for other modification companies like ourselves (they know the modification process backwards and forwards, and they have relationships with every lender and their mitigation agents) You do that and you'll increase your chances greatly, not only of success but achieving a significant modification.
So it is possible for the average Joe to achieve the exact same modification as we do given the same circumstance, but it's highly unlikely. Just as it's possible for me to beat Kobe Bryant in a game of basketball, but my chances are equally as unlikley.