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Forums » Commercial Real Estate Investing Forum » How to value a property with no financial stmts

How to value a property with no financial stmts Subscribe to How to value a property with no financial stmts

14 posts by 8 users

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Real Estate Investor · Washington, Washington D.C.


Is there a way I can value an apartment building that doesn't have any financial stmts? A building in my area is on the market but it has been vacant about 8 years so there are no financial stmts to view. I think the building is overpriced. I think the seller is asking that much because it's located in a nice area. But I can't justify an offer on that.

Should I base the value off of proforma stmts? I'm a little weary about that so I wanted to know how to get a good valuation.

Also, the building needs to be rehabbed. I have an appointment to inspect it so I will know how much work needs to be done at that time. And this will affect the offer price.



Do not use proforma statements.

If it is a nice area, why has it been vacant for 8 years? The obvious followup question is why do you think you will be able to get tenants if the current owner can't?

Without operating statements you are left making an educated series of guesses to arrive at a number representing your risk in the purchase.

With every single step you take in this always remember you are buying a failed business. This business has no income and a lot of work and money will be expended on the rehab. Then you are going to have to market the heck out of it. A lot of challenges but tremendous opportunity.

Here is how I would approach it. I would try to determine the replacement value, that number will be the highest end of the range. Next, look at the comparables of complexes near yours. About the only metric you can use without totally driving yourself nuts with analysis would be cost per rentable square foot based on the last sales data. From that you can figure out the lower bound. Then I would take some number in between, cut it in half and deduct the estimated rehab costs. I would use that number to start my negotiations but I would be very careful about going too much above that number.


Real Estate Investor · Washington, Washington D.C.


Thanks for that Long Time. I will certainly ask the question as to why the owner hasn't done any work to the building. My assumption is that they purchased the building before the area was developed waiting to sell once all of the development was complet. The area used to be a neglected part of DC when I first moved here about 10 yrs ago. I would say in the last 3 yrs or so that area has seen tremendous growth.

How would I go about determining replacement cost? I heard this method can be quite extensive.

If I understand you correctly, once I find a good value I should reduce that number in half and then subtract repair costs. How do I justify cutting the number in half? I don't disagree with what you are saying. It makes a lot of sense, in fact I like that approach. I just want to make sure I have solid justification for the offer price if I get to the negotiating table. I don't want to appear that I am pulling a number out of thin air.



Originally posted by Damien Hall
How would I go about determining replacement cost? I heard this method can be quite extensive.

Yeah, if you needed an exact number it would be. Call your insurance agent and ask him what he would recommend as a ballpark coverage for the structure. He or she should know the approximate cost per square foot to replace the structures in the complex. You aren't looking for the exact number just something in the ballpark.

If I understand you correctly, once I find a good value I should reduce that number in half and then subtract repair costs. How do I justify cutting the number in half? I don't disagree with what you are saying. It makes a lot of sense, in fact I like that approach. I just want to make sure I have solid justification for the offer price if I get to the negotiating table. I don't want to appear that I am pulling a number out of thin air.

Well, to be honest you kind of are pulling it out of the air.

Typically, as you know, with apartments the seller/broker gives proforma numbers, we as investors say, okay but I need operational numbers. Then we make an offer get it under contract and then ask the seller to prove it in the due diligence process.

But, they have no proof because there are no operating numbers on the property. Again, it is a failed business endeavor. The process I described, btw, is what your lender will do to guesstimate the value for the loan and any appraisal will have a big old disclaimer as to any notion of accuracy because, well, there is no proof.

Real Estate Investor · Washington, Washington D.C.


Tim, thanks for the info!



I also forgot to mention, after eight years of sitting vacant I doubt they have a valid operating permit for it, that further justifies the lower offering price.


· OR


If you have experience landlording in the area, you should be able to estimate how much rent each unit will bring.

Keep in mind that it might take you a long time to fill an entire building with good tenants. You will have to support that building out of your own pocket while you are renovating and while you are finding tenants to fill it.

I suggest that you do not pay utilities, so if utilities are not separated, figure the cost of doing so into your expenses before you decide what you want to offer.

You should be able to get a close estimate of taxes from the assessor's office-- taxes will go up when you purchase, but taxes are usually a % of assessed value, so not hard to figure.

I suggest you check with the local fire marshall to see if the building needs to be brought up to code. Fire supresion systems in commercial can be quite expensive.

Also check with the local health office to make sure the apartment hasn't been closed down for some sort of health or safety issue (sewer problems, mold, unsafe construction)


Real Estate Investor · Washington, Washington D.C.


P:

Thx for the advice. I'll look into those as well.


Real Estate Investor · Ohio


Damien,

I NEVER believe financial statements even when I do get them. Besides the fact that sellers lie (early and often), if you're buying from a distressed landlord, they often have not kept up with maintenance and have put a bunch of deadbeats into the building just to fill it up.

If I were evaluating this property, I would determine the monthly market rents for similar units in the immediate area and divide that by 2 (to account for the operating expenses). That would be the NOI once the building is up and operating. Then, I would subtract $100 per unit per month from the NOI (your positive cashflow). What's left is the amount you could spend on the debt payment. I would then determine the purchase price that would result in that payment. That gives you the maximum purchase price for an OCCUPIED building with no deferred maintenance, no code issues, etc.

From that number, I would subtract the repairs needed. Finally, since the building is vacant, I would subtract an additional amount to account for the start up costs: carrying costs while rehabbing, initial lease up period, etc. That amount would depend on the length of time estimated for the rehab and the length of time estimated to fill the building (based on rental demand in the area, etc).

As the others said, a thorough due dilligence is definitely needed. In my area, a building that has been vacant that long can revert to alternate zoning! The building could even be scheduled for demolition - that recently happened to a friend of mine and it cost him a bundle (they even charged him for the demolition - UGH!)

Good Luck,

Mike



Originally posted by Michael Rossi

If I were evaluating this property, I would determine the monthly market rents for similar units in the immediate area and divide that by 2 (to account for the operating expenses). That would be the NOI once the building is up and operating. Then, I would subtract $100 per unit per month from the NOI (your positive cashflow). What's left is the amount you could spend on the debt payment. I would then determine the purchase price that would result in that payment. That gives you the maximum purchase price for an OCCUPIED building with no deferred maintenance, no code issues, etc.

From that number, I would subtract the repairs needed. Finally, since the building is vacant, I would subtract an additional amount to account for the start up costs: carrying costs while rehabbing, initial lease up period, etc. That amount would depend on the length of time estimated for the rehab and the length of time estimated to fill the building (based on rental demand in the area, etc).

So, you buy proforma; a little risky for my taste.

But, different strokes and all.

Real Estate Investor · Laguna Niguel, California


Find comp sales in the area and find out the sales price per sq. foot. From the comps you should also be able to find out the expenses per sq. foot. After this process have a contractor or inspector give you a quick idea of the repairs needed. Don't forget to add in a vacancy factor. From this number you will have a potential value of the property. With it vacant for 8 years, I would offer no more than 50% of the proforma value. I think you will also have many more repairs than are found initially. 8 years is a long time for a property to be vacant without major damage being done to the property. This being said, I think you may also have a difficult time getting financing, in today's market, without a financial history on the property. Point this out to the seller. He has probably had many deals fall through over the years because of the vacancy. This may further encourage him to lower his price.


Foreclosure Specialist · San Jose, CA


Damian, you got some excellent advice. In this market, Bottomn line, be very, very careful. You know you can pick up apartment buildings that are bank owned. There are a lot of builder buy-out opportunities. Explore the reo world before you buy retail these days.


Real Estate Consultant · Southport, Connecticut


Damien - Consider looking at this as a development project using the "back door approach." If you believe you know the potential income stream once the property is re-habbed (i.e., you have a sense of the likely rent structure, operating expenses and financing costs), you capitalize this income stream to estimate the value of the property after re-hab. Then you subtract the cost to re-hab and that leaves you with the maximum value of the property before re-hab.

I have an article about this approach under the "Learn" tab at realdata.com. It's called, "Real Estate Project Feasibility - What's Behind Door #1?" I also discuss this at greater length in a case study in my one of my books http://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Real-Estate-Investment-Examples/dp/0981813801 Hope this helps.


Real Estate Investor · san jose, California


With apartment buildings there is no doubt that doing your own due diligence regarding comparable property rents, expenses and sale prices is the key. It's a lot of work but it will pay off.


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