BiggerPockets

I'm throwing out an opinion here (everyone has one) to get some opinions on this. I was perusing a couple threads on people asking when's the right time to buy or is now the right time to buy or when will be the right time to buy..... If you're a speculator, I'm guessing you have to worry about that. I wouldn't know, I'm not a good speculator.

If you're a cashflow investor, there really is no "time to buy" indicator of when you should be buying. Investing for cashflow is individual deal to individual deal. If the deal works, it is time to buy that deal. If it doesn't work, it is never time to buy that deal - doesn't matter what the market's doing.

There are seasons to cashflow. Late spring and summer are great times to buy as you can prep a property for tenants in time for summer moving. Winter yields good purchase numbers, but expect to lose some of that as your house sits empty till spring. I personally love buying at the beginning of March. 80-90% of investors have a job and are focused on April taxes and given that an accepted offer in March could easily close 30 days later, you're only 1-2 months out on spring/early summer movers. This probably isn't as much an issue in the south and I'm guessing your moving months probably avoid the summer heat more than winter cold.

In the end I'm learning more and more as I do this that cashflow REI has much less in common with the general public's perception of stock investing....and has a lot more in common with farming. Every year is a good year to seed. Some years yield more than others. The key to overall success though seems to be seeding the right season for your climate.

I agree also with the following distinctions~

*We always invest for cashflow, never speculation although one of our exit strategies might be to sell if we've miscalculated elsewhere so there must be enough meat on the bones to sell even in a down market if necessary

*During times of general appreciation, it can be harder to find properties that CF well-- so buying volume can be low and s-l-o-w. Doesn't mean it isn't *time* to buy, it just might take longer.

*Right now, bargains are plentiful, financing is not so those who can should scoop up as many, as fast as they can :cool: In that sense, *now* is the time to buy

*YMMV yadda, yadda :wink:

Mark,
You speak of exit strategy as selling only. Fair opinion but again, I'm not a good speculator, and frankly a person who buys cashflow properly doesn't need profit on the sale of the property. Not saying they should do that but frankly I'm getting my principle back on everything I buy in 5-10 years. I could afford to sell everything for what I paid for it and be ahead 100%. It would suck, and I would lose some cash to inflation but I could do it.

Originally posted by REHoldingsJax

Tim,

I agree with you for the most part; however I would warn some of the newbies to check the vacancy and unemployment rates in their market. If the vacancy is too high (IMO above 10%) I would caution a purchase. I'm a VERY conservative investor (hence I didn't buy anything while the market was going gangbusters); but I can't agree more with your seasons of cash flow analysis!

You're correct Jax, though with he current climate my area's numbers are skewed by vacant, boarded up, uninhabitable (no utilites on) property. While they may affect a census report, they don't hurt my rehabbed, clean, ready to live in occupancy percentages.
That is something for the newbies to keep in mind.