We are experiencing the most socially civilized/least violent decade in recorded history globally.

In any event, I'd be interested in seeing your arithmetic. Not that I don't agree with you, but I look at stats that disturb me like the increase in this country's prison population which is up 300% since the early 70's and wonder at what cost are we reaching this 'socially civilized society'? I also work with youth and I look at their work ethic and value system (along with that of their parents') compared to ours and our parents' and I'm almost alarmed. I also look at the eroding family structure of American families over the decades and am concerned that the heart of our civilized society, the family, is actually getting "weaker".

Those are some of my thoughts on the issue Lee.

Nathan Emmert

Multi-family Investor · South Jordan, Utah

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Dec 08 '11, 07:11 AM

I would say it makes sense.

All along, the PhD's have claimed if a higher life form ever found Earth, we really have nothing to worry about. Per their estimations, by definition, a higher life form is one of peace, not war. Civilization advances through collaboration and harmony. If they had achieved some higher level of being, they must therefore by definition have more harmony.

IMO, the world as we know it is becoming more civilized. More and more parts of the world which were once nomadic, tribal, and barbaric places are being pulled into the fold of the civilized world through globalization. As wealth and influence of the civilized world spreads, more and more of this planet will fall into a more peaceful existence. As the areas that are still trapped (by religion, ruler, or geography) continue to become educated and assimilated, you will see peace continue to spread.

James Vermillion

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Dec 08 '11, 07:19 AM

Nathan, those are some interesting thoughts but I am not sure that means this particular decade has been the most peaceful. Additionally, the definition of civilized is key to any discussion about this topic. I do not believe that nomadic or tribal necessarily equates less civilized.
It is true that globalization is taking hold, but I also feel it is creating a struggle as certain groups fight globalization and its effects. I think we will see, as you discussed, as more peaceful existence due to this phenomenon, but I am not convinced this decade was the most peaceful/least violent.

Jon Holdman

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Dec 08 '11, 07:29 AM

A couple of links:

NPR interview with Steven Pinker and Joshua Goldstein

Steven Pinker article

I heard just a bit of the NPR interview while getting lunch yesterday. Sounds like its a statistical argument. That is, the amount of violence might be higher than in the past (or not, I didn't catch what they were saying), but the population is much higher so the per-capita rate of violence is lower.

Jon Holdman, Flying Phoenix LLC

Don Hines

Real Estate Investor · Little Rock, Arkansas

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Dec 08 '11, 07:33 AM

This ain't pick on Nathan day. But, I was surprised to see that you are a "multi family" investor and can hold that opinion. I can show you some areas in SouthWest Little Rock that might change you tune!!
Don

James Vermillion

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Dec 08 '11, 07:38 AM

This just seems like an impossible statistic to measure and too many variables to account for.
What is considered violence?
How much violence goes undiscovered?
Does severity of violence play a role?
It is very interesting and when I get a chance I will listen to the arguments, but I rarely trust stats like this, as they are very easily manipulated in my opinion.

James Hamling

Real Estate Investor · Minnesota

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Dec 08 '11, 09:07 AM

Maybe the US, but GLOBALLY, no way not even close. UK, massive riots repeatedly with injuries and death. France, riots that lasted weeks on end and nearly resulted in revolution. Greece, teetering on the brink of total collapse and in months of riots, Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, Libya, China, Ukraine, the list goes on and on, this is JUST civil unrest and violence, that doesn't count our multi leg war program.... oh, sorry, police actions..... oh nope wrong again, I mean, "peace keeping missions", lol. Ever wonder how it is that we always convey "peace" upon someone via hellfire missiles?
In the US, absolutely, we are living in the age of "sheeple" here. In the rest of the world, it's either unraveling, fighting unraveling, or already completely come apart.

Jon Holdman

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Dec 08 '11, 10:36 AM

The statistics are global. They're just statistics. If you're the one getting mugged, it doesn't matter if mugging rates are going up or down, you still got mugged. Same on a global scale. There can be bad stuff on that affects large numbers of people. But the number of incidents, however they are defined, divided by the number of people may well be going down even if the number of actual incidents are going up. That's because the population of the world is going up.

Its also an illustration that what you see on TV and in the news gives you only a partial picture of what's happening. You could certainly get the impression the US is on the brink of chaos, too, with rioting groups occupying most of the major cities. Yet most people are totally unaffected by any of this.

These guys have done an actually statistical analysis and contend that the impression that all these contries are on the engulfed in rioting and violence is just wrong.

Its not unlike thinking cash flow is rent less PITI. Yes, that happens. If you own one unit for one year and have a good tenant, that might be your experience. Or, you could buy something and have a long, messy, expensive eviction. And you might think rentals are total disasters. But the statistics for large number of units over long periods of time tell a different story.

Jon Holdman, Flying Phoenix LLC

Brian Hoyt

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Dec 08 '11, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by Ibrahim S

Hi Lee. Did you finish your comment?

In any event, I'd be interested in seeing your arithmetic. Not that I don't agree with you, but I look at stats that disturb me like the increase in this country's prison population which is up 300% since the early 70's and wonder at what cost are we reaching this 'socially civilized society'? I also work with youth and I look at their work ethic and value system (along with that of their parents') compared to ours and our parents' and I'm almost alarmed. I also look at the eroding family structure of American families over the decades and am concerned that the heart of our civilized society, the family, is actually getting "weaker".

Those are some of my thoughts on the issue Lee.

I find the increase in prison populations appalling. However, I think there are a lot of people in prison, especially petty drug charges, that are contributing to the increase more than violent offenders. It is reported up to 30 percent of prisoners are there for drug related offences and of that maybe 75 percent are marijuana offences. Pretty ridiculous.

I agree that the state of the youth looks worrysome. But, what generation didn't think that about their successors. Kids aren't interested in work. Not really. I wasn't. I didn't like doing the chores and stuff I did as a kid, but then I look back and think I was such a hard worker, why don't all the kids today chomp at the bit to do yard work and homework