Greg, I think this is a good question. I also feel I am in a good position to answer it as I am both a landlord and buy-sell guy.
I have some comments:
First of all, I don't know how realistic your numbers are. 80k total cost into 130k resale is 61.5%. That is a very hard number to reach consistently. But for sake of doing an analysis we can use it.
So let's say, 30k profit. You have to pay short-term tax on that. Let's say your effective rate is 40%. So 12,000 goes to taxes. You really only end up with 18,000.
If you get 1,200/month rent and assume it is free and clear. Let's say you self manage it and we will use the 50% rule, less 10% for management. $720/month in cash-flow. Let's say the improvements are valued at 75% of the total cost. 65,000 * 75% / 27.5 years you can depreciate sfh = 1,772 / 12 months = $147/month of depreciation.
$573 * 12 months = $6,876 * 60% factor in taxes = $4,125 after tax
$142 * 12 months = $1,704 depreciation add-back, tax free
After tax benefit 5,829
So it would take just over 3 years to make as much renting it as flipping it.
But you still own the house! So let's say after 3 years you decide to sell the property. Assuming the value is the same...
You would make 30,000 again but it would be taxes at the long-term capital gains tax rate (which is 15%).
$30,000 * 85% = $25,500 + 17,487 (5,829 over 3 years) = 42,987 after taxes.
If you can add leverage to the rental property the situation it is a lot better.
The buy-sell business is a job that is great for returning a huge ROI that is highly taxes (contains very few of the benefits of real estate ownership).
Thinking of the end business model I would rather own 10 of the houses free and clear and make 60k after taxes for managing them then have to flip 3 a year for the rest of my life.
I am doing both. But I think landlording makes sense if you understand it in the terms above. Especially if you can buy properties at 1/2 or 1/3 of replacement cost. If they ever need to build a house again I would imagine we are going to see prices go up.
Updated: 01:07AM, 10/02/2011
I made a blog post that elaborates my answer: http://buildbankroll.com/2011/10/why-landlords-win/
Updated: 01:08AM, 10/02/2011
[url]http://buildbankroll.com/2011/10/why-landlords-win/[/url]