BiggerPockets

In a recent survey of housing economists (see macromarkets), about 50% expect housing prices to rise; the other 50% expects future declines… What do you think? :roll:

50%+ of economists don't know what they're doing and 99% of economists don't focus on my specific area. There are parts of the country that have experienced 5% appreciation in home values over the last year, there are other areas that have experienced 5% depreciation in home values over the last year. I only care about what's going on in my local market, I don't care about the overall statistics of the entire country as it doesn't tell me what's happening in my neck of the woods.

Personally, I would guess (and I can't stress that word enough, guess) that housing values overall will lower a bit more over the next 6 months to 2 years and then begin to recover at a slow rate afterwards. But I really don't care, I just want to know what's going on down the street.

Would you average out the weather patterns across the whole country to figure out if it was going to rain at your house today, or would you watch the local weather?

IMO most economists are no better than weather forecasters, in fact chances are that a weather forecaster is more likely to get it right.

Macroeconomics is so entwined with politics and social(pseudo) science that it is hard to get much of a consensus.

Well, at least 50 percent of them or half, whichever is greater. :D

I hope those economists don't hurt their thumbs while flipping all those coins. :crazed: