Someone once said figures don’t lie, but liars figure. I want to restate that a bit. Figures don’t lie, but self interests figure. I don’t know if the media is tired of writing about sales going down 16%, or some other number, or if the organizations with a vested interest in the real estate market are getting tired of crystal ball guesstimates, but I’ve noticed a surprising agreement among these wordsmiths.
To an entity they have all pushed their recovery estimate out from this spring to the 2nd or 3rd Q of 2011. Last year I made the bold prediction the recovery wouldn’t BEGIN to happen until 2013 when a new administration is in place. Nothing I’ve read so far has made me change my mind. Plus, as I read these authors, I see they are closing in on my guesstimate.
But, Can You Still Make Money
Given what I just wrote is the word we should live by, i.e. no recovery until 2013, can you still make money today? Yes, and resoundingly so. A friend of mine is living proof. In fact, I’m a bit in awe his market hasn’t crashed – only wrinkled. It seems he owns two upscale properties that he rents to visiting executives of a certain national company with a presence in this area.
When they come to town, they don’t stay at any of the local hotels as they prefer total privacy. Whatever floats your boat, right?
He hasn’t had to lower his rental fee but he has experienced several months without occupants. According to him, that isn’t a problem given the company does an annual contract for $XXXXX per year, whether or not anyone comes to town.
Is he making an overnight killing? Nope. But his mortgages are being paid leaving him the luxury of weathering this storm until it passes. He doesn’t know if they will pick up the 2011 option, but he says he’ll worry about that when contract renewal time rolls around.
Granted, this is a niche market and it doesn’t exist everywhere. However, it may just be the spark you needed to find the niche market in your area.
Back To The Title
I didn’t forget the title. I simply sidetracked myself with an idea you may be able to use. I believe the new year will hand us new opportunities even with the old news still lingering at, or below, surface level.
I’ll use an example from my insurance practice.
This very large insurance company has introduced a patent pending product that credits the contract holder with an immediate eight percent interest. It also guarantees the contract holder will never do worse than 114% of contract deposit over the 10 or 12 year – they offer two contract period options – life of the contract.
While that isn’t real estate, it is a new opportunity. My point is simple. We can either sit in the juices of the old news or we can look for new opportunities. Sometimes we only have cast a broader glance.
Photo: Sjors Provoost
Article Author:
Tom KoziolTom has written 88 articles for us.
Visit Tom's Website: http://www.moneyferret.com
Joshua Dorkin
John Fedro
Charles Feldman
Justin McHood
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
Tom — For many of the same reasons, I too believe we’re not near a real recovery.
BawldGuy Talking´s last blog ..Some Changes Comin’ Around Here
Hello Tom,
I agree with you that a more realistic date for the recovery is 2013. I believe that local food suppliers, heating products and renovations will be the most significant growth areas. Great opportunities will arise for businesses that exist in both click and brick form to provide services to people within a 50 mile radius of their business/farm/workshop premises.
Your posts will be more credible when you refrain from political commentary and stick to what you know.
But Barbara, I know political commentary.