Contrarians zig while other investors zag. They hold to the belief that most people receive news too late and act irrationally. Warren Buffett illustrates the contrarian approach best:
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.
Let’s talk about how mortgages can be applied to the Buffett School of Contrarian Economic Theory; you should probably be maxed out to the hilt on your properties. “Mortgage Planning” was a sales technique we debt peddlers used, during the boom. We dressed up serial refinances, to the maximum permitted loan-to-value, and called it “home equity harvesting“. The theory suggested was to make money from arbitrage opportunities by borrowing against your (appreciated) principal residence at x% and investing that money at (1.25) x%.
Financial advisers like Ric Edelman championed this cause by lending credibility to the theory through best-selling books. Seminars were held by guys in thousand dollar suits, displaying multi-color charts, showing how the incremental benefit of that arbitrage, compounded over time, could result in a king’s ransom for the intelligent “investor”. They forgot to discuss the key ingredient to the use of leverage…
Can you service all of that debt?
The real estate market tanked, the stock market dove, and junk bonds defaulted, leaving those “investors” with depreciated assets, bought with money they couldn’t afford to repay. A sad tale of woe, indeed.
Still, I think you should “bet the ranch” today. Here’s why:
- Mortgage rates are REALLY cheap and they’re going higher; the Federal life support plug is about to be pulled.
- Some properties can service the debt required to buy them at 100% loan-to-value.
- Inflation seems imminent and a commodities boom seems to be the likely result.
- Higher taxes seem more probable than lower taxes, over the next 5-10 years.
There’s a catch, though. You must be able to afford all of that debt. If you borrow an extra $100,000, to buy $300,000 worth of property, be certain that the income being produced from that $300,000 services ALL of the debt incurred, including the marginal monthly increase from the withdrawn home equity.
The whole world is talking about the great de-leveraging in which governments, businesses, and consumers are engaged. They’re all zigging so I say you should zag. If they’re saving and receding, you start borrowing and buying.
A contrarian opinion. Caveat Emptor.
Article Author:
Brian BradyBrian has written 5 articles for us.
Visit Brian's Website: http://www.MortgageRatesReport.com
Brian Brady is a 22-year veteran of the financial services industry with the last 15 years in residential lending. He lives in Del Mar, CA, with his wife and daughter, and is active in the National Association of Mortgage Brokers, Knights of Columbus, and Chamber of Commerce.
Joshua Dorkin
John Fedro
Charles Feldman
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Thanks for the mention. I think this is sound advice, straight down the line. This is no market for the faint of heart, but if you’ve got some risk tolerance in your character, there are gemstones to be had at bargain-basement prices.
I’m with both you and Greg on this one. Market conditions are such that, at least in my humble opinion, we’re in as great a time to invest in some real estate as we’ve ever been. With proper due-diligence, you can scoop up plenty of diamonds in the rough, while keeping the risk to a minimum.
As usual, Brian, excellent post. What is surprising is how so many investors discuss leverage when they’re completely unaware of it’s primary investment-related definition.
You touch on it with your mention of arbitraging. Hope we see more of you here.
Jeff Brown´s last blog ..Keepin’ Up With Everything Frank Doesn’t Know – Leverage
It’s a pleasure to be here, Josh. Thanks for the invitation and I appreciate the referral, Jeff.
Readers should not that Greg and Jeff are two real estate brokers in whom I would place my trust. Greg’s “hot list” is always an interesting read
Brian Brady´s last blog ..Fixed Mortgage Rates Edge Lower- January 14, 2010 (From the L.A. Times)
So far the contrarian practice has worked out for me in my stock portfolio, but REITs are still taking a bashing. I imagine it is a matter of being able to deal with this debt for awhile to ride our current economic circumstances out. I am glad that you highlighted that fact. Investors have to understand what the costs are, and how to make a profit.