While the turmoil in the residential real estate markets continues to make headlines, some analysts and prognosticators are questioning whether we will see the same kind of meltdown and mass foreclosures in the commercial real estate side of the industry. And the general consensus of those quoted in various news services and website across the United States is not good.

Overview of Commercial Market Status

The commercial real estate market, including retail malls, multifamily buildings, office buildings and other non-residential buildings has already been hurt by falling prices, unemployment, economic decline and foreclosures. However, as already mentioned, commercial real estate includes many different property types, which perform differently under the same economic conditions. For example, retail malls have been adversely affected by numerous issues such as the credit crisis, lower consumer spending, retail competition from the internet and changing consumer behavior. These economic factors that have already caused the bankruptcy of major malls across the United States may not have the same affect on the multifamily real estate market due to the fact that the demand factors influencing apartment buildings are completely different from those of a retail mall. In fact, some of the issues now hurting retail malls could actually increase demand for affordable multifamily housing.

Can Multifamily Thrive in This Down Market?

Millions of people have seen their homes foreclosed upon over the past two years. These people may not be shopping every weekend at the local mall for a new pair of designer jeans but they will still need a place to call home. With tightening credit guidelines for residential mortgages and falling residential home prices it is a logical presumption that many of these displaced people will be seeking multifamily housing. As most apartment building investors understand, it is difficult to find reliable statistics for multifamily housing demand. This is due to the fact that demand for multifamily housing varies according to local economic factors. For example, demand for multifamily housing may increase or decrease according to the local job market.

One of the factors that does seem to be affecting all property classes in the commercial sector of the real estate market are commercial mortgage backed securities. According to Forbes.com the issuance of commercial mortgage backed securities reached its highest point in 2007. Most of these bonds are for duration of ten years and have a fixed rate of interest. These bonds become due in 2017. While this is true for the majority of large retail commercial projects, many apartment building owners have five year loans that become due in 2010 or 2012. Because of stricter underwriting guidelines and depressed values, these owners may find it difficult to refinance without having to put up more cash to facilitate the loan.

Photo Credit: sashafatcat

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Tags: apartment investing, apartment investor, buy apartment building, commercial property, finance apartment, foreclosure, Mortgage-backed security, refinance apartment building

Even the most bearish economist is predicting that commercial real estate prices will fall up to 40 percent from peak to trough. However, the data released yesterday from Moody’s Investor Service shows that in April commercial property prices plummeted a record 8.6 percent. According to Moody’s data, commercial property prices fell a total of 29.5 percent from their highs in 2007. This leaves another 10 percent drop in prices if the most bearish economists are correct. In my opinion, much of this drop was due to a speculative credit bubble that caused commercial property buyers to purchase properties that would never produce a positive cash flow, even assuming a strong economy and strong demand for commercial real estate.

I believe that most of the declines in commercial property prices that can be attributed to the credit bubble have mostly taken their toll on prices. But, I surmise that we could experience an even greater decline in commercial property prices due the fact that the economy is fundamentally unsound. If one closely examines the fundamentals of supply and demand for the commercial property sector, the prospects for continued price declines becomes readily apparent, especially in the retail and office building sectors of commercial real estate.

Background to a Crisis

During the speculative credit bubble, developers built many more office buildings and retail stores than could possibly be sustained. Now that unemployment is in the double digits and major economic sectors like the automotive industries are going bankrupt there is less demand for commercial property. There have been many large, well known, retail brands either going bankrupt or severely cutting back growth projections. In a small city, near where I live, there are at least fifteen Starbucks. How many Starbucks stores can one small city support? Circuit city is out of business, Brandsmart may be next. Car dealerships are closing their doors around the country. These are all commercial real estate tenants whose absence can’t easily be filled. The list goes on and on. If so many large retailers are going out of business or curtailing operations then there will be even less demand for all of the vacant commercial retail space.

Commercial Real Estate Breakdown & Predictions

As local, state and federal governments go deeper into debt they will be increasing taxes even further on businesses and property owners. This means higher taxes for the owners of commercial real estate. If the costs to hold a property increase, then its intrinsic value must decrease.

I would challenge the 40 percent figure and would argue that prices could drop even more due to the dismal state of the economy at large. I would go the record to say that the commercial property sector could see real price declines of up to 70 percent from peak to trough. The worst might still be ahead of us.

Source: Reuters
Photo Credit: strangelv

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Tags: Commercial, commercial property, commercial real estate buying, commercial real estate prices, commerical property investing, Retailing

1. Loopnet.com - Loopnet is probably the largest and most well-known commercial real estate listing site. They claim to have over 630,000 active commercial real estate listings on their website. It costs $24.95 a month for visitors to have access to all of the property listings. The free membership for visitors allows full search capability, however, only a limited number of results are shown.
2. Realup.com - Realup is brand new to the market and officially launched on May 17, 2009. It appears that all of the memberships for both buyers and sellers are free. The website says that “our property listings are charged based on a pay-per-results pricing model, setting us apart from our competitors and providing the greatest value to our partners and clients.” So, they are basically charging for the traffic or leads that your listing generates. This sounds good in principle but from my experience the technology for these “pay for the lead” type of systems is usually too weak to determine what a valuable lead is.
3. Costar.com - Costar offers the ability to search for all commercial property types. Basic listings are free for real estate professionals and property owners. It costs $24.95 a month for visitors to have access to all of the property listings. The free membership for visitors allows full search capability, however, only a limited number of results are shown. They offer information on “space available for lease, comparable sales information, tenant information, properties for sale, property information for clients’ web sites, industry professional directory, analytic information, data integration, property advertising and industry news–throughout the United States as well as in the United Kingdom and France.”
4. Lead-Trac.com - Lead Trac is designed to give investors and commercial real estate professionals access to following data about commercial real estate: property data, owner data, phone numbers. They also offer direct mailing and marketing tools within the website. Pricing starts at $69/user/county/month.  In addition to the monthly plans, they have an unlimited access plan that they sell on a per county basis.  This plan ranges from $1500 to $3000 per county per year.
5. CIMLS.com - What makes CIMLS different than many other similar sites is the fact that visitors can search listings for free while realtors and property owners can also post their listings for free. Realtors and property owners have the option to upgrade to a Gold account for added exposure. The Gold account costs $14.00 a month for the first month and $20.00 a month for every month thereafter.

Photo Credit: quinet

Tags: buy commercial real esate, commercial real estate sellers, commercial real estate website, Loopnet, marketing, national association of realtors, real estate, search commercial real estate

Typically the performance of the commercial real estate market in the United States trails behind the rest of the economy and the residential real estate market by at least one year. After watching the painful decline of the US residential real estate market over the past year, many industry watchers are wondering what the future holds for commercial real estate.

Examining all of the facts surrounding the current commercial real estate market begins to paint a dismal picture, albeit one that is tinged with hope. Unfortunately, optimism doesn’t seem to extend to the vast majority of commercial real estate owners who financed their properties using commercial loans that become due in 5 or 10 years. The hope that remains in the market is in the sole possession of institutional and private hedge funds who have been buying the notes on the properties at steep discounts, sometimes up to fifty percent of the notes face value. This will leave many office building, high rise and apartment building owners in the position of having to renegotiate their mortgages with venture capitalists who may have no interest at all in the seeing the owner maintain possession of the property.

Prognostications and facts gleamed online that paint a gloomy picture for commercial real estate:

1. The commercial real estate market will have to absorb price declines of at least 10 percent before it can begin to recover and may require slippage of more than 30 percent, according to a poll by LoopNet, an online commercial real estate marketplace.
2. The biggest obstacle to recovery, identified by 46 percent of respondents, is capital.  Economic uncertainty and its commensurate influence on asset pricing was cited by 29 percent of respondents as top obstacle, making it the second biggest damper on recovery, followed by differences in pricing expectations between buyers and sellers, cited by 23% of respondents.
3. Nearly $73 billion worth of commercial real estate loans are in some level of financial distress, according to Real Capital Analytics.
4. U.S. commercial real estate prices fell 10.5 percent in the first quarter and 12.2 percent in 2008, according to British real estate data and analysis provider IPD’s first analysis of the U.S. market.
5. Nationwide, the biggest drop in funding – 88 percent – was for hotels. Lending through mortgage-backed securities fell 96 percent from a year ago and bank loans for commercial real estate slid 80 percent, the Mortgage Bankers Association group said.

Tags: business, commercial property, mortgage, Mortgage-backed security, Mortgage-Bankers-Association, real estate, United States, US

Many apartment buildings are now facing foreclosure because of falling prices, stricter underwriting guidelines and 5 year mortgages becoming due. For the astute buyer of apartment buildings these apartment building foreclosures could represent an investment windfall.

As a glaring symbol of the burst bubble in national residential real estate prices, the National Association of Realtors announced recently that a full 63% of homeowners in Las Vegas are now “underwater” in their mortgages. This simply means that they owe more than their property is currently worth. For many of these people, it simply makes no economic sense to continue paying for their mortgages when the underlying asset is no longer worth what they owe. This situation will probably lead to further foreclosures and further declines in real estate prices. As all eyes are currently watching the steep decline in residential real estate prices and rising foreclosures, the commercial side of real estate has hardly begun to realize the problems that may be looming on the horizon for many apartment building owners.

Homeowners in Las Vegas, for example, who are able to continue paying their mortgages may decide to hold on to their property for a few years and hope that real estate prices recover. They are able to make this decision because, presumably, they have 30 year mortgages. In contrast to residential mortgage holders, many investors in commercial real estate are holding on to 5 year mortgages. This means that they will be forced to refinance their properties when the notes become due and it couldn’t be happening at a worse time. Many apartment buildings rose in value right along side residential real estate prices and too many of these owners paid too much for their properties because they figured that as long as they were seeing a net profit every year from their rent collection then they had nothing to worry about.

Market Conditions Lead to Great Opportunity in Apartment Market

During the real estate investing frenzy apartment building buyers didn’t take into account the possibility that real estate prices would drop so precipitously is such a short period of time. Now, many apartment building owners are facing a dire situation. For example, let’s assume an apartment building investor purchased an apartment building in 2005 for 1 million dollars. He came out of pocket for $200,000 and he financed the purchase with a 5 year balloon note that becomes due on January 1, 2010. He financed 80% of the purchase price. In the last years, however, the market price of his apartment building has dropped 20%. It is now appraised by the bank as being worth $800,000. Unfortunately, when he goes to the bank to get a loan, the loan officer tells him that the bank has changed their underwriting guidelines and they are now only willing to finance 70% of the appraised value of the property. Now, he is only able to finance $560,000. The problem is that he still owes just around $800,000 on the property. The difference between $800,000 and $560,000 is $240,000. Unless the apartment building owner can come out of pocket to pay this additional $240,000 to the bank then he will eventually be forced into foreclosure. It is safe to assume that many apartment building owners will make the same choice that thousands of home owners have, to walk away from the mortgage and the property, chalking it off as a lesson learned.

For the first time buyer of apartment buildings, this could be a windfall in the making. There could be thousands of properties, in good condition, appearing on the market at rock bottom prices.

Tags: apartment building foreclosues, apartment building investing, apartment foreclosures, buy apartment buiding foreclosues, how to buy apartment building foreclosures, how tobuy apartment building, invest in apartment foreclsoures

In yet another sign that the economic downturn can gobble up companies small and large alike, Bloomberg is reporting that General Growth Properties, the owner of such prime properties as Faniel Hall and the South Street Seaport, filed the biggest real estate bankruptcy in U.S. history. The company had accumulated “$27 billion in debt during an acquisition spree that turned it into the second-largest shopping mall owner.”

ended a seven-month effort today to refinance its debt. The company listed $29.5 billion in assets and debts of about $27.3 billion in the Chapter 11 filing. General Growth will continue operating its more than 200 properties. “We intend to emerge as a leaner company,” General Growth President Thomas Nolan said in an interview today. “We want to come out as a less leveraged company. Our business model remains strong.”

General Growth collapsed after spending $11.3 billion to buy commercial-property developer Rouse Co. in 2004 only to get caught in the credit crunch and a U.S. recession that has cut spending and property values. Banks have reduced lending amid mortgage-related writedowns. Commercial real estate prices in the U.S. dropped 15 percent last year, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Retail sales in the U.S. fell in March as soaring job losses forced consumers to pull back.

As I’ve been saying for many months, we’ve yet to see the full extent of what the housing crash, and ensuing economic recession, is going to do to the commercial sector; it looks like this is one of many signs. The Drudge Report today highlights another story, Report: Ground Zero Redevelopment May Take Decades, which details the delay in development of the WTC site, also partially due to the economic decline, and discusses fears that southern NYC can’t fill several new massive skyscrapers with tenants.

So . . . to those who say that we’re at bottom, what say you now?

Are we going to see other major developers, REITs, and commercial owners fall victim?

Tags: business, Commercial Real Estate, faneuil hall, real estate, recession, Shopping mall, South Street Seaport

There are many ways that investors use to find motivated sellers, however, what I see happening many times with beginners is that they start looking for properties to purchase before they thoroughly understand how to identify a truly profitable opportunity. Here are my recommendations for how to begin learning about multifamily investing and then how to find motivated sellers.

Begin by learning what makes an apartment building profitable by taking these steps:

1. Study and learn about what makes an apartment building profitable.
2. Read as many books about real estate investment and apartment building investment as possible. It is a lot easier to learn from other people’s mistakes. There is no need to reinvent to the wheel.
3. Find a reputable real estate investment club in your geographic area and meet with the commercial investor members. These “old hands” are a valuable source of market information.

After the aspiring apartment building buyer has received a thorough education by reading books, industry magazines and networking with other commercial real estate investors then he or she is ready to begin the process of searching for an actual property to purchase.

Contacting Commercial Realtors

A great reference source for finding well educated commercial real estate agents is the CCIM website. The CCIM is a professional designation that qualifies a commercial real estate professional as capable and knowledgeable in the field. You can also find commercial real estate agents using a simple search on the web.

When searching for a commercial real estate agent take these steps:

1. Speak to a number of commercial realtors in the area and ask about “pocket listings”. Pockets listings are apartment building owners that the experienced realtor might know who are serious about selling their building but they have not listed the property yet.
2. Find a commercial realtor who specializes in apartment building investments. A good commercial realtor who specializes in multifamily properties should have a great knowledge of what apartment buildings have sold for recently.

Alternative Strategies for Finding Apartment Building Deals:

1. Place an ad on Craigslist stating what you are looking for:

“Looking To Sell Your Apartment Building? I am a commercial real estate investor interested in buying apartment buildings in Philadelphia between 5 and 100 units. I am looking for owner financing over five years with 5% down or will buy with a 20% down payment and a bank loan.” Or, here is an ad that I copied directly from Craigslist this morning:

I BUY APARTMENT BUILDINGS W/SELLER FINANCING OR QUICK CASH. Need to sell? Moving? tax benefits run out? call me for a offer.

2. You can also place the same ad in the commercial real estate section of your local newspaper but be prepared to pay a handsome sum for the ad and also be ready for unsolicited calls for real estate agents. Newspaper ads do work but you are better off using free or more direct methods like direct mail.
3. Another strategy is to contact the owners of commercial real estate directly. This can be done in a number of ways. Apartment building owners can be located by researching the tax records of a metropolitan area. Usually, the owner of record will be listed along with his or her or contact information. The next step is to write a letter that explains who you are and what you are trying to accomplish. The purpose of letter to have many interested apartment building owners contact you. You should leave your phone number, mailing address and email address for sellers to contact you. You should make it very easy for the sellers to get a hold of you. Remember, you will need to look at dozens of deals and sellers before you find the one that fits your investment criteria. You can also contact owners directly by telephone. Keep in mind that multifamily property owners are usually very busy so you might want to write a script or have talking points written down so you are able to get right to the point and get your message across accurately.

Tags: apartment building sellers, apartment investing, buy apartment building, commercial real estate sellers, how to find commercial real estate