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Economy

Economy

Real Estate, The Stimulus And…Golf Carts?

by Richard Warren | November 2, 2009
Thumbnail image for Real Estate, The Stimulus And…Golf Carts?

Government efforts to stimulate the economy and prevent the recession from being as deep as it could have been have met with mixed results and that’s not a big surprise. When you spend $787 Billion on so many different programs you will have some that work, others that are so-so and some that are complete [...]

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Economy

New Home Sales fall 3.6% for September, First Decline Since March

by Joshua Dorkin | October 28, 2009

The White House keeps telling us that we’re in a recovery, yet anyone watching the economy, housing, foreclosures, unemployment, the stock market, commercial real estate, and dozens of other factors will tell you that they have some rose colored glasses glued on. Of course, if they didn’t, what they would tell us is that [...]

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Economy

Foreclosures Jump 5 Percent From Summer; Government Effort To Curtail Foreclosures Sinks Like Lead Duplex

by Charles Feldman | October 15, 2009

In my previous posting with the VERY long headline the other day, I challenged any and all to contradict me when I —and a Congressional oversight committee—concluded that the Obama administration’s attempt, thus far, to gain meaningful mortgage modifications has totally flopped.

In even less time than I thought would be the case, I have been proven sadly right: A new RealtyTrac report just out says that foreclosures are up a full 5 percent from summer to this fall…..meaning almost 940 thousand properties were impacted….

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Economy

Déjà vu All Over Again In The Mortgage World

by Richard Warren | October 12, 2009

FHA Logo3Where have we seen this before? A major backer of home mortgages may need a bailout. Oh yeah, that was right here. Wasn’t it only a year ago that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac needed a bailout to save them from themselves? They had so many bad loans on the books because of lax rules and loose oversight.

Now it seems that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is in trouble. According to an article in the New York Times (article) 20% of loans insured last year and another 24% of those from 2007, are in serious trouble.

Didn’t They Learn?

Banks all across the country have tightened lending standards requiring that the borrowers actually have the ability to repay. Imagine that! It seems that just throwing money at anyone who can fog a mirror is not good business. While people complain about how tough it is to get a loan now, they are better off in the long term.

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Economy

Where is the real estate market going?

by Ryan Moeller | October 6, 2009

Has the real estate market bottomed? No, nope, not a chance. We are through 1 of 3 storms and have a crippled economy and really high unemployment. The good news is that we are through the worst. With terrible times come tremendous opportunities. After the last up cycle where everything went way higher then it should have, this had to happen. It is inevitable. If you are like me, you see the next 3-5 years as the opportunity of a lifetime. Here is why.

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Economy

Mortgage Interest Rates: Where Are They Heading?

by Peter Giardini | September 22, 2009

I was listening to a financial talk show on the radio the other day; the host was going nuts over an upcoming Treasury auction where over $140 Billion in 2, 5, and 7 year notes were going to be auctioned. This would represent the most auctioned at one time ever, and would be on top of $60+ Billion in notes auctioned the week before.

This got me to thinking about how much debt was out there and ultimately where current mortgage rates were and what direction they were headed in.  Here is what I found… 

The State of Debt

In my search I ran across this very sobering set of statistics about who holds the most US debt… take a look at the data, and if you’re not concerned about where interest rates and inflation are heading, then you must be asleep.

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Economy

How’s the Economy? Check Your Underwear

by Richard Warren | September 21, 2009

underweareconomyThere are a multitude of economic indicators to use as a barometer of the economy. Many are extremely complex, while others are fairly simple. One of the more unusual ones actually seems to make a lot of sense. Look at your underwear drawer!

I was recently reading an article in the Washington Post (article) and assumed that it must have been a slow news day. The reporter was talking about how consumer confidence can be gauged by the underwear you keep. It seems that there is even a Men’s Underwear Index (MUI), and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan sees it as a credible means of tracking consumer sentiment.

Replenishment Item

The theory behind the index is that men will replace their underwear as it wears out. However, when times are tough they will wait longer than usual before purchasing a replacement. So when money is tight the sales of boxers and briefs are in the toilet. When people feel better about the economy again you will see the sales rise.

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Blogs

Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

by Richard Warren | August 3, 2009
Dog Tunnel
There are plenty of mixed signals on the economy today. Each bad report is followed by something good only to be followed yet again by something negative. This is actually a good thing. It wasn’t that long ago that the news was almost universally bad. The mixed signals are actually a sign that things may really be improving.
The housing numbers for June were positive in terms of sales with new construction reporting a gain of 11% and re-sales posting a 4% increase. The flip side shows that prices were still falling. Some of these sales can certainly be attributed to the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit, but they’re still sales. So we have the good and the bad, but it is nowhere near as ugly.

More Pain to Come

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Blogs

What The Yellow Pages Can Tell You About The Economy

by Richard Warren | July 27, 2009
 
“The new phone books are here, the new phone books are here!”That was a line from Steve Martin in the movie The Jerk, heDex YP was finally “somebody” because his name was in the phonebook. Well, today I received the latest edition of the Dex yellow pages directory for Las Vegas. Without even opening it, I saw a snapshot of the local economy.
 
 Las Vegas was a city that was growing so fast that the yellow pages were published twice a year, January and July, the only market in the country to do so. There were so many new businesses opening up that the publisher, R.H. Donnelley, felt that they couldn’t make someone wait as long as twelve months to advertise. With each edition the book was bigger and heavier as more and more businesses advertised.
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Blogs

Collateral Credit Damage

by Richard Warren | July 13, 2009

There was a very interesting article here on the Real Estate Dispatch last week. It was by Tom Koziol on the topic of consumer credit scoring models (article). I found it interesting because just one day earlier I was speaking to a friend of my who is an independent auto broker. She was telling me [...]

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Economy

HUD Raises Limits on Negative Balances for Real Estate Refinance through HARP

by Steve Heideman | July 7, 2009

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development this past week extended the Home Affordable Refinance Program to borrowers who are up to 25 percent upside-down on mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The previous threshold was 105 percent, or owing 5 percent more than the value of the home.
To qualify for refinancing under [...]

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Commentary

On The Road To Recovery – Not…

by Joshua Dorkin | May 23, 2009

If you are like me you have heard any number of pundits – TV talking heads, guru columnists, radio talk show hosts – give any number of dates – like next spring, 3rd Q 2010 – spewing as to when the “recovery” will begin. The actual date when the economy will begin to recover, according [...]

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Commercial Real Estate

Apartment Building Foreclosures Create a Buyers Market for Apartment Buildings

by Ted Karsch | May 19, 2009

Many apartment buildings are now facing foreclosure because of falling prices, stricter underwriting guidelines and 5 year mortgages becoming due. For the astute buyer of apartment buildings these apartment building foreclosures could represent an investment windfall.

Image via Wikipedia

As a glaring symbol of the burst bubble in national residential real estate prices, the National Association of [...]

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Blogs

What Do You Mean Money Doesn’t Grow On Trees?

by Richard Warren | May 18, 2009

 
As a young boy (way too many years ago) whenever I wanted something that was outrageously expensive my mother would say, “sure, I’ll go out back and pick some cash off of the money tree.” This was, of course, a variation of the adage that money doesn’t grow on trees. Ah, if only it did.
Unfortunately [...]

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Economy

Obama’s Making Home Affordable Plan Update

by Steve Heideman | April 20, 2009

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Sean Donovan was on Bloomberg this morning discussing the state of housing and the Obama Making Home Affordable Plan. There are some signs that the program is starting to work.”I think we have a good balance of carrots and sticks” said Donovan when asked about banks and servicers working [...]

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