Economy

Economy

How’s the Economy? Check Your Underwear

by Richard Warren | September 21, 2009

underweareconomyThere are a multitude of economic indicators to use as a barometer of the economy. Many are extremely complex, while others are fairly simple. One of the more unusual ones actually seems to make a lot of sense. Look at your underwear drawer!

I was recently reading an article in the Washington Post (article) and assumed that it must have been a slow news day. The reporter was talking about how consumer confidence can be gauged by the underwear you keep. It seems that there is even a Men’s Underwear Index (MUI), and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan sees it as a credible means of tracking consumer sentiment.

Replenishment Item

The theory behind the index is that men will replace their underwear as it wears out. However, when times are tough they will wait longer than usual before purchasing a replacement. So when money is tight the sales of boxers and briefs are in the toilet. When people feel better about the economy again you will see the sales rise.

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Commentary

Our World Has Rolled Over

by Tom Koziol | September 11, 2009

I realize I am not the only guy on this planet who reads the “news” as presented both in the newspapers and on the Internet. Even if I didn’t read the news, I’d get a good dose of what people are calling reality. That dose comes from the mix of clients our insurance agency serves. Lucky me…

Here are two sentences taken from two separate news stories:

“The coffers of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have been so depleted by the epidemic of collapsing financial institutions that analysts warn it could sink into the red by the end of this year.” – AP

“Pending U.S. home sales rose more than expected in July to the highest level in more than two years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of a tax credit that expires this fall.” – AP

Is it me or are these two sentences sending conflicting messages. If it is me, I apologize upfront. However, I don’t think it is me.

Failure Ahead

According to published reports, so far this year, 81 banks have failed. Last year only 25 went down the toilet while in 2007, if you’re counting, only three went south. These same sources project hundreds of more banks are expected to fall. The primary reason given is due to souring loans for commercial real estate.

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Commentary

Home Prices “Turn Corner;” While Light At End Of Real Estate Tunnel Blinds Us!

by Charles Feldman | September 4, 2009

What’s that ahead? Is it….a corner? Is it…..THE corner? Are we about to turn it?
God, I hate cliches. But such is the case with a freshly minted Reuters dispatch headlined : “U.S. home prices turning the corner, up in 2010.”

I’m not sure if this differs from earlier reports that we were seeing the light at the end of the tunnel?

Actually, I sort of wonder whether the corner we are about to turn is right before we enter the tunnel, at whose end there is said to now be a light, or directly after we leave the tunnel, in which case ,wouldn’t that light at the end of it make it damn hard to see the freaking corner we are supposed to be turning?

Ok…this might be an academic question…but someone needed to raise it and it might as well be me.

Now, back to that corner we are turning.

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Commentary

Is It A “U” or “V” Shaped Housing Recovery? Or, Is It Some Other Letter?

by Charles Feldman | August 19, 2009

This is the sort of crap (sorry, I meant to say something far more tame, but the only word that came to mind was crap! Will gladly take submissions for other words, though) that makes people get really upset (I had thought of a different word for “upset” but, in this case, was able to come up with the tamer word “upset” rather than pissed….ooops, sorry, didn’t mean to say that! Upset, is what I mean to say!) when they listen or read so-called experts riff on the economy.

In a Reuters story called “U.S. housing starts keep recovery hopes alive,” (which doesn’t really say anything, but makes a nifty headline to make fun of) one of these experts, a dude named Kurt Kari, is quoted as saying, “The economy is recovering, this is the turning of the corner. We will have positive growth this quarter, but not a lot of strength. It very much looks like a U-shaped recovery rather than V-shaped.”

What the hell does that mean? A U-shaped recovery rather than V-shaped? Why not a W-shaped recovery, which would combine the best of U and V?

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Real Estate

New Home Sales Vs. Existing Home Sales: Guess Which Is Winning?

by Charles Feldman | June 25, 2009

Image by Getty Images via Daylife It’s the battle of new home sales vs. existing home sales. Existing home sales are thus far winning. Seems sales of new homes fell last month 0.6 percent, according to the Commerce Department—-that apparently came as a surprise to some “experts” who had predicted the rate of new home [...]

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Economy

A Different Take on this Week’s Mortgage Market Data

by Steve Heideman | April 6, 2009

A little bit of a different take on this week’s mortgage market data. Gotta change it up sometimes ya know?

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Commentary

Banks Walk Away From Foreclosed Homes; GM CEO Driven Away By “O” Administration

by Charles Feldman | March 31, 2009

Looks like some banks have stolen some ideas from their own customers…after months of worry about homeowners walking away from foreclosed properties, more and more banks are now apparently doing the same thing, leaving the property owner holding the bag. According to a New York Times report, “the so-called bank walkaways rarely mean reflief for [...]

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Commentary

Beware “Good” Housing News; May Be A House Of Cards

by Charles Feldman | March 24, 2009

Don’t pop those corks just yet. We may have ducked a few thunderheads, but we still have enormous storm clouds ahead. The news that existing home sales rose in February at the fastest rate in some six years, certainly brings with it the hope that the bottom (or end) to this mortgage caused misery is [...]

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Commentary

February Foreclosures Up 30% from 2008; Does Obama Own the Crisis Yet?

by Joshua Dorkin | March 12, 2009

Almost 291,000 homes across the US received at least one foreclosure-related notice last month, up 6 percent from January, says RealtyTrac.com, a compiler of foreclosure data. The big question in the minds of pundits is when the Obama administration is going to officially own the economic and housing crisis. Fifty days into his administration, the [...]

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Commentary

Obama Removing Mortgage Interest Deduction – Dumbest Idea Of The Week

by Rob K. Blake | March 1, 2009

The Obama budget announced this week – in the middle of biggest housing crisis since the Great Depression – seeks to raise tax revenue by removing the mortgage interest tax deduction for those that are in the 33% and 35% income tax brackets. What? You’ve got to be kidding, right? I can’t count the ways [...]

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Economy

Economic Forecasting And Astrology

by Tom Koziol | February 27, 2009

Probably the most succinct to the point explanation of the difference between economic forecasting and astrology was summed up when John Kenneth Galbraith said: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Since, of late, I’ve been propounding one be an expert in one’s local economics if one wants to be [...]

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Commentary

Obama’s Not-State of the Union Speech; Comes As Home Prices Plunge; Consumer Confidence Falls Off Cliff

by Charles Feldman | February 25, 2009

It was a State of the Union speech–even though it wasn’t a State of the Union speech. It just looked, sounded and felt like a State of the Union speech. That’s probably because it was in all but name only a State of the Union speech, even though the Constitution requires a State of the [...]

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Real Estate

Results And Suggestions from the Energy Audit

by Brendan O'Brien | February 12, 2009

This week the energy auditors returned to take another look at my house and present their conclusions. They brought their FLIR thermal imaging camera to check along walls for gaps in insulation, and presented their conclusions and ideas for me to improve the heating efficiency of my house. It’s important to note that this was [...]

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Economy

Are we Moving Further and Further from those 4.5% Mortgage Rates we’ve Been Hearing About?

by Steve Heideman | February 2, 2009

Consumer confidence reached an all-time low and 100,000 Americans were issued layoff notices last week, each playing a role in the mortgage market’s relative worsening. For the third consecutive week, mortgage rates rose and average loan fees increased, too. Amid all of the negative economic news, however, there were two bright spots worth identifying and [...]

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Real Estate

If Your Tenant Can’t Pay the Rent, What Then?

by Brendan O'Brien | January 29, 2009

Last week, I wrote about a call we get all too often from tenants – telling us they can’t pay the rent, and asking for some sort of break. As always in landlording, it makes sense to have some guiding rules in place to handle these calls. You never want to try to think of [...]

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