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BlogArrowReal Estate News & CommentaryArrowWhere Is the Housing Market Headed in 2021? Top 10 Predictions From an Economic Expert
Real Estate News & Commentary Dec 24, 2020

Where Is the Housing Market Headed in 2021? Top 10 Predictions From an Economic Expert

Jessa Claeys
Expertise: Real Estate News & Commentary
18 Articles Written
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Without clairvoyance, it would’ve been nearly impossible to foresee most of the events that unfolded in 2020. In the real estate realm, who could’ve guessed a global pandemic, citywide shutdowns, and widespread unemployment would’ve provided further fuel to already red-hot housing markets spanning the country.

However, with a million-plus Americans vaccinated inside of two weeks, economic experts are considering what’s likely to come in 2021 as we slowly return to some sense of normalcy. There’s finally a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel—but once we’re in the clear, the time it takes to repair COVID’s collateral damage remains to be seen.

The good news for investors? Expect more of the same—or better—with regard to real estate in the coming year. The housing market will continue to hold strong as the rest of the economy rebounds from the coronavirus-driven recession, predicts Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.

And Fairweather’s 2021 economic forecast, released Dec. 15, only gets more specific from there. Read on to inform your real estate investing strategy next year.

Prediction #1: Mortgage rates will remain historically low at 3%.

Thirty-year-fixed rates may tick up over the next 12 months, but if so, it will happen slowly and insignificantly. It won’t be enough to put off buyers, although it might impact their willingness to pay a premium to land property.

“Mortgage rates will remain low primarily due to a sluggish global economic recovery,” Fairweather explains.

Prediction #2: There will be more home sales than in any year since 2006, but price growth will slow.

New listings declined in 2020 compared to the previous year—particularly in coronavirus hotspots. But “as COVID-19 cases hopefully decline due to vaccination, Redfin expects more new listings to make for a more balanced market and more home sales.”

Prediction #3: There will be more new homes built than in any year since 2006.

Low interest rates have incentivized homebuilders to borrow for construction projects, and commercial builders have largely sat out 2020, making it easier to meet labor, material, and land demands for new homes.

Prediction #4: The number of Americans relocating will be the highest it has been in 16 years, which will help the economies of affordable places like Buffalo, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh.

With social distancing measures, remote work, homeschooling, and more, many settled into a new lifestyle in 2020—away from the hustle and bustle of once-thriving city centers and the high costs of living that came with living nearby.

Related: America’s New Remote Workers Are Moving—Here’s Where

“In 2021, the number of Americans moving across county lines will surpass 14.5 million,” Fairweather predicts. “The last time there was this much cross-county migration was 2004, when 15.3 million Americans moved counties.”

Prediction #5: The homeownership rate will reach 70% for the first time since 2005.

Work-from-home employees are ditching expensive rentals for affordable homes in the suburbs. The trickle-down effect could make it harder for small-time landlords to profit on urban investments.

“This surge in condos for sale, which currently sell for a 17% discount relative to single-family homes, will give many city-dwellers the opportunity to become first-time homebuyers, as well.”

Prediction #6: San Antonio, Tucson, and Tampa will be the hottest housing markets as major southern cities like Austin, Phoenix, and Miami become unaffordable.

Coastal dwellers have long been ditching overpriced areas for other warm climates with more reasonable housing options—so much so, hip cities like Austin, Phoenix, and Miami no longer seem like much of a bargain.

Related: Top 10 Markets Where Spacious Homes Are Most Affordable in 2020

Prediction #7: Expensive cities will invest in their culture and lifestyle to attract residents and tourists.

As residents flee expensive cities for reprieve from inflated real estate prices, places like San Francisco and New York will inevitably take a hit—especially when it comes to tax revenue. However, “these cities won’t die just because office workers leave, but these cities will have to be reborn with a greater emphasis on culture and lifestyle to attract residents and tourists,” Fairweather says.

Prediction #8: Most homebuyers will make an offer on a home sight unseen.

With currently heated markets poised to light up even more, the fact is homebuyers will have no choice but to rely on virtual tours. This is especially true depending on how long the pandemic lingers and how comfortable society becomes with all-virtual everything.

Prediction #9: 2021 will usher in a new era of price competition for real estate agents.

"In 2021, all listings will show the buyers' agent fee as a consequence of a settlement between the Department of Justice and the National Association of Realtors," the forecast notes. Fee transparency will offer both buyers and sellers a leg up when it comes to negotiating commissions.

Related: Zillow’s In-House Brokerage Launches—Here’s What Agents & Investors Need to Know

Prediction #10: Everything associated with buying or selling a home will be offered at one-stop-shops.

With Wall Street pumping billions in capital into home buying and selling tech, "the competitive battle in the industry will heat up, as the biggest real estate companies work to become a one-stop shop for customers, integrating home trade-in and cash offers, concierge listing prep, mortgage, title, insurance, home warranty, and moving services."

For Fairweather’s complete forecast, read the report on Redfin.

Which predictions are you sold on? Which seem like a stretch?

Weigh in with a comment below.

By Jessa Claeys
An editor and copywriter who has spent 15+ years creating content for print and digital publications, Jessa serves as the Managing Editor of the BiggerPockets Blog.
Read more
39 Replies
    Pride Davis Rental Property Investor from Oceana, VA
    Replied 2 months ago
    It truly is amazing how long the interest rates have remained so low. I wonder what will happen when that bubble burst?
    Michael Casile
    Replied 2 months ago
    Good point on low interest rates. This is gov't trying to defy the laws of economics (which can only go so far). They are not doing it for the housing market (which is good) ... they are doing it because they are so far in debt, that a rise in interest rates will kill the whole economy and make fiscally irresponsible politicians (which is 100% of one party and 98% of the other) look really bad. So it is likely rates will stay low ... not because politicians care about us investors ... but because politicians care about themselves.
    Som Jafari
    Replied 2 months ago
    How have politicians been fiscally irresponsible? What are some recent examples, at least as far as pertaining to real estate?
    Glenn Mertens
    Replied 2 months ago
    Look at our ballooning national debt. Are you allowed to go deeper and deeper in debt? how are we going to pay it back?

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    Kali Terry
    Replied 2 months ago
    Spot on sir!!

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    Jordan Moorhead Real Estate Agent from Austin, TX
    Replied 2 months ago
    @pride davis when interest rates go up demand will go down

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    Jordan Moorhead Real Estate Agent from Austin, TX
    Replied 2 months ago
    I also see people moving further outside of the Austin area. San Antonio is only 1.5 hrs away and there's a lot more affordability between here and there.
    Larry Dowde Rental Property Investor from Colorado
    Replied 2 months ago
    I certainly agree. I spent 30 years in Austin, moved to CO and now temporarily in San Antonio. Austin is booming and with the mass exodus from CA and NY they are flocking into Austin and driving prices sky high. San Antonio is just down the road and has a much larger and affordable workforce. We will be looking to pick up a couple SFH’s here soon. The busienss climate is great, affordable and lots of room to grow. Austin is land locked and soon to top out and traffics to awful.

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    Michael Guzik Real Estate Agent from San Antonio, TX
    Replied 2 months ago
    Great post and as a whole I completely agree. Numbers 3-6 are spot on and I couldn't agree more! I work with a custom home builder here in San Antonio and in this last quarter we had an insane amount of new leads come in for families looking to build next year. Many of them are out of state currently and looking to move here next year or in 2022. I have been super fortunate to be born and raised in an amazing real estate market like San Antonio and it has been staggering to see the growth and influx of new development as the city expands, gentrification downtown, and influx of investors flocking to the market! One thing I will say is not so sure #8 will be a permanent change. Even with virtual tours and more pictures due to COVID and in person walkthrough is so critical. Although many homes here in San Antonio have gone under contract sight unseen the amount of deals that have fallen through during the option period has also risen drastically. I work with investors primarily and have personally offered twice sight unseen on SFR and had the offer accepted. However after going to see it in person, we backed out during the option period. The pictures and walkthrough didn't show the extent of repairs needed and this caused my client's to go from cash flowing 200-400 monthly to losing money every month. Overall solid predictions and I'm very eager to see where we will be this time next year!

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    Account Closed
    Replied 2 months ago
    WOW! Amazing post. Thanks!

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    Brandon Miller Investor from Pittsburgh, PA
    Replied 2 months ago
    Out of curiosity, at what point does the number of jobs lost affect people's ability to get mortgages and the amount of spending money they can get to pay over there down payments or the overages on the appraisal? At what point do balls tighten up even further on their lending requirements. You'll forgive my aversion to pollyanna. All those indicators are great (not sure I necessarily agree with people leaving apartments for houses) but this really just boils down to two main problems: 1) lack of housing stock will continue to try to inflate the prices. 2) market conditions will continue this upward tend as long as banks will lend. The second part of this one is tryinyg point. Banks will continue to lend only so long as the borrowers ability to pay back is good. Increased quarantine debts, job loss, employment in a covid affected field, or cut in pay tend to make banks question borrowers ability to pay back. Last thing to keep in mind is that housing stock prices are beginning to exceed new construction again. To me, all this indicates that people are going to make a lot of money in real estate, until they don't. Then they'll lose a lot when the market crashes. Be conservative or keep large reserves in these kinda times. Nobody can predict when a downturn will hit, it's been proven over and over again that you can't time the market. Play the game but don't get in over your head and always have a plan B ready to go.

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    Andrew Syrios Residential Real Estate Investor from Kansas City, MO
    Replied 2 months ago
    Always be careful with predictions, but I would tend to agree with most of these (with that first caveat well in place, of course).

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    Account Closed
    Replied 2 months ago
    Wow, how much research went into this article. I really thought by the title I was going to learn a thing or two about the possibilities in real estate 2021 but no. Not even half of what you comment on that occurred 2020. It's very frustrating to read news articles when the only research the writer has done is borrow hard on other incomplete news articles. Or the go to for Adderall addled. Wikipedia. Please do a job that you love in the future. Or just don't bother. Thanks in advance!
    Sisee Adams Rental Property Investor
    Replied 2 months ago
    100% agree!

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    Andrea W. Investor from Tampa, FL
    Replied 2 months ago
    Market in Tampa is going through the roof, that's for sure.

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    Michael Plante from Deland, FL
    Replied 2 months ago
    @JMoorhead23 If interest rates go up could demand stay the same and prices come down?

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    Vernon Miller Investor from Crossville, Tennessee
    Replied 2 months ago
    The best deals are yet to be seen. When the market gets back on tract with life being normal again , the sky’s the limit ! Realestate is booming in TN..

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    Mike Arman
    Replied 2 months ago
    Question was asked if interest rates go up, will prices come down. Probably not. Costs of building new homes continue to rise, and that brings up the prices of older homes. (Prices abhor a vacuum.) Higher interest rates will make it harder to qualify because the payments will be higher, but probably the only thing we'll see is a reduction in the rate of price increase and a slightly lower velocity of sales. Our area (I'm in Ormond) will continue to benefit from people fleeing the insane prices "up nawth" and out west. People want to live in Florida, and they bring their money with them. Compared to many places, we're still a screaming bargain. Prices rise because we have a LOT of people chasing a limited amount of inventory and you can't create inventory quickly. It takes a couple of years just to get the OK for a subdivision, and then a year or two more to build it out. Many subdivision plans which went dormant (or failed) during the housing crisis are now being resurrected by new developers. There's one in this area of 100 homes, they'll have $3MM in infrastructure before they build the first house. These will be "starter" homes at $225 to $250K (ouch) and they'll sell like hotcakes.
    Brian Serina Commercial Real Estate Broker from Sacramento, CA
    Replied 2 months ago
    That’s why the u-hauls are heading your direction from Calif! They are building 10k homes just outside of Sacramento with prices starting at $800k+. And that is before any landscaping, blinds, ceiling fans, furniture, etc etc
    Joe Bertolino Developer from El Dorado Hills, CA
    Replied 2 months ago
    Brian, Very few of the houses in Lincoln, Folsom Ranch, etc are starting north of $800K. There are many more $550K starting prices than $800K in the major build outs.
    Steve Foster Investor from Beaumont, Texas
    Replied 2 months ago
    What’s the average family salary in that area?

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    Michael Casile
    Replied 2 months ago
    Have to wonder about predictions from someone named Fairweather ;). That said, I am optimistic that this person is correct. I will be interested to see if/when the eviction moratoriums end (just like debt, I see politicians kicking this can down the road a long way since they get more votes from tenants than landlords ... can you tell I'm not a fan of politicians from either party?) ... what will become of the market. I believe many folks will get out of real estate investing and this will cause some additional supply in the market (which could depress prices).

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    John Richards
    Replied 2 months ago
    Interest rates cannot go up. Why? Because the historical average paid on the federal national debt by the U.S. Federal Government was about 6% in the two decades before the Great Recession (2008). Right now it is very low, about 2.0% and interest payments are about $500 billion on the ~ $25 trillion in debt (http://www.crfb.org/blogs/debt-rises-interest-costs-could-top-1-trillion). If interest goes up a little but stays below 3.8% through 2029 as expected, the interest per year will be almost $1 trillion. Imagine if it went up to the average of 6% -- the U.S. Government would be bankrupt as it could not service the debt. For this reason, interest rates cannot go up. The only way out of this is hyper-inflation. If we hyper-inflate so $25 trillion feels like $2.5 trillion then we better not be in cash and better be in assets that will appreciate, like gold, silver, real estate, oil, etc. Any contrarian viewpoints? If so, please explain.
    Kali Terry
    Replied 2 months ago
    Agreed!

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    Steve Foster Investor from Beaumont, Texas
    Replied 2 months ago
    Very good summary of the predicament.

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    Daniel Kypena
    Replied 2 months ago
    well put sir

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    John Richards
    Replied 2 months ago
    Additional thoughts: -- No mention of the 11 to 18 million mortgages that are frozen and when thawed will be tacked on to end of loan but the borrowers have to resume payment and many of these -- let's even say the low of 11 million -- won't be able to afford the resumption. -- No mention of the tens of millions of renters who will face eviction because they will not be able to pay back rent -- many have already skipped out and left the landlords in the lurch with months and months unpaid. Any of those landlords reading this? I have talked to many. It's real. Seems those two issues above affect real estate investments. I find it hard to believe there will not be a glut of foreclosures in at least some markets. Please explain why not.

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    Isaac Agbolosoo Rental Property Investor from Grosse ile, MI
    Replied 2 months ago
    Nice post, but I dont like predictions. Nobody could have foreseen coronavirus.

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    Joe Bertolino Developer from El Dorado Hills, CA
    Replied 2 months ago
    A few things I know to not be true from the story. 1. Very very few people make their largest purchase sight unseen. They may commit a $3K refundable deposit on new construction site unseen and then hope for the best later but it is not and will not be the norm. Myself and most other listing agents will not go into contract and tie up a home for someone who has not physically been in the property. That is a huge disservice to the seller and a recipe to be on and off the market multiple times. 2. The all-in-one solution does not make financial sense for most homebuyers and even the ibuyer companies that continue losing money on every house. The more houses zillow and opendoor buy, the closer they are to imploding. Eventually Wall Street will catch on that their business model is deeply flawed and cannot be carried out at that scale. Costar/Homesnap is going to mop the floor with Zillow in the coming years. They offer a great search homesite but the rest of their operation is a mess. 3. Agent disclosure of commission (which most buyers knew anyway) will likely result in contraction at some point but not in a white hot market in 2021. The best buyers agents are not going to rush to discount and the best agents are going to be those that can get your offer accepted and get you in a house you want at a reasonable price. Discounters and rebates don't do much good if you can't get what you want. Go into a multiple offer situation with a Redfin agent juggling 90 buyers and see what your chances are.
    Dave G. Investor from Phoenix, Arizona
    Replied 2 months ago
    Great rebuttal. It’s called reality versus the social media wishful crowd.

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    Barry Cohen Lender from Washington DC
    Replied about 2 months ago
    Costar isn't just for Commercial Real Estate?

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    Edward Aboni Real Estate Investor from Brooklyn, NY
    Replied 2 months ago
    Nice work Jessa! I will agree with you on almost everything except that i am not too sure people will be making offer on strong hold priced properties sight unseen when more inventory flood the market. But, great article though. Cheers.

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    Sam Sala Rental Property Investor
    Replied 2 months ago
    So which markets are worth looking into?
    Jessa Claeys Managing Editor from Denver, CO
    Replied 2 months ago
    Here are a few articles that you may find helpful: Top 50 Housing Markets for Home Price Appreciation and Sales Growth in 2021 and Housing Markets Post-COVID: Which Ones Win? Which Lose? and America’s New Remote Workers Are Moving—Here’s Where

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    Susan Maneck Investor from Jackson, Mississippi
    Replied 2 months ago
    You've left something out pretty important here. There has been a moratorium on foreclosures. When that ends what effect will it have on real estate? I'm guessing it will give us investors a lot of new opportunities.

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    Rudy Bello Investor from Vancouver, Washington
    Replied 2 months ago
    Your predictions make total sense. There are a lot KPIs that you've mentioned that are starting to influence the market in many different ways. Regarding Tucson, other cities in AZ are becoming too expensive that people are looking more south. Lookout for Tucson and Sierra Vista.
    Barry Cohen Lender from Washington DC
    Replied about 2 months ago
    Tucson needs a boost! But why would anyone move to Buffalo?
    Matthew Owens from Buffalo, NY
    Replied about 2 months ago
    Low cost of living is one major reason! This article gives many more reasons: http://info.buffaloniagara.org/blog/top-reasons-to-live-in-buffalo I moved to Buffalo a few years ago and I have been happily surprised!

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    Barry Cohen Lender from Washington DC
    Replied about 2 months ago
    What firms are Wall Street pumping money into for home buying and selling tech?

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