{"id":100099,"date":"2019-10-06T11:00:02","date_gmt":"2019-10-06T17:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/renewsblog\/?p=100099"},"modified":"2021-03-16T13:57:29","modified_gmt":"2021-03-16T19:57:29","slug":"investing-wrong-real-estate-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/investing-wrong-real-estate-market","title":{"rendered":"How to Know If You&#8217;re Investing in the Wrong Real Estate Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">How do you know if you\u2019re investing in the wrong market?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I\u2019m probably going to sound like a broken record here, but it is very, very important that you build trust and relationships with the key people who are going to be involved in your real estate ventures. For example, you need to have a good real estate agent, property management company, accountant, and possibly attorney. You need to have contractors, a rehab crew, a title company, advisors, and mentors. You need to be part of a real estate club, and you need to be part of an online community. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Don\u2019t forget your network equals your net worth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Success won&#8217;t happen overnight. It is going to take five, 10, or 15 years to build a lasting portfolio that will be able to offer you <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/2016\/03\/28\/financial-freedom\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">financial freedom<\/a>. You also want to work with people who understand what delayed gratification is and what planting a seed now and reaping the harvest later is.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">So, how do you know if you\u2019re investing in the wrong market? My experience has led me to believe that I should forget about all the online stats and demographics. As I mentioned to you, the team is by far the most important thing. So, let\u2019s just hypothetically say that you have found the right team in a particular market that you have researched. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then, you need to get down to the fundamentals. That means cash is king and cash flow is queen, and you can forget about appreciation because that is a crystal ball analysis. We do not know what tomorrow brings, so you cannot include any appreciation estimates into your calculations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Related:<\/strong> <a href=\"\/renewsblog\/market-trends\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Here\u2019s Why the Market is Exactly Where It Should Be<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You may think what I\u2019m going to share with you won&#8217;t work in your market. Look, I understand because I attend a lot of conferences nationwide, and a lot of these institutional companies and buyers are talking about a lack of inventory in markets that have seen big appreciation. I get it. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Well, then don\u2019t invest in that market. It\u2019s as simple as that. Invest in a market where the numbers make sense and just focus on the cash flow. That is my belief, take it or leave it, but I do not believe in appreciation. I do not believe in speculation. I believe in the core fundamentals of a deal as it lies today.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/j_oMSKy7xNw\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2>For the Hands-Off Investor<\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In order for a market to make sense, you&#8217;ll need to follow the numbers. If you are not getting numbers that work, then you are in the wrong market, period. If you are buying turnkey or buying a renovated property through a real estate agent, it is my belief that unless you are making 8 percent in net cash flow, then you should not do the deal and you should not invest in that market. Again, 8 percent net return on investment. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I also want you to include a margin of safety where you are overestimating your expenses like maintenance and vacancy deductions. What are some of the deductions when you\u2019re calculating your ROI? You have hard costs like property management fees, insurance, and property taxes. Then, the unknowns are the maintenance, vacancy, and CapEx, unless the property has been recently renovated, and then you can include those costs in there, too.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The rule of thumb is to overestimate your expenses and underestimate your income. Once you have done that and the numbers on paper produce less than 8 percent net return on investment, don\u2019t touch the deal. That is my honest belief. You\u2019ve got inflation coming at you at 2 to 3 percent every year, so you want to be making some kind of money. You still want to minimize your risk as much as possible or you might as well take your money and put it in an index fund. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">If you want to be as hands off as possible, you need 8 percent net. Unless a market offers those numbers, forget about it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em> <strong>Related:<\/strong> <a href=\"\/renewsblog\/overpriced-market-health\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Why \u201cOverpriced\u201d Markets Like San Francisco May Be Healthier Than You Think<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-109656\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/write-commands.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"702\" height=\"336\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/write-commands.jpg 702w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/write-commands-300x144.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 702px) 100vw, 702px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>For the Hands-On Investor<\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Next, if you are like me and are happy to get down and dirty and do deals, then begin to hustle and negotiate. Also, send out a lot of yellow letters and do not buy properties on the MLS. Try to keep rehabs to a minimum. Personally, I would not get out of bed unless I am making a 15 percent net return on investment. Those are the numbers that I do if I\u2019m buying and holding for my portfolio. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I encourage you to reach out to me because I am happy to show you the numbers that I am doing in my market. Again, that\u2019s going to come down to finding a property and buying it cheap, because you make money when you buy, not when you sell. You want to buy it for as cheap as you possibly can. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Remember, rehab always goes over budget. <\/span><span class=\"s1\">So, I buy cheap and I negotiate well. Then, I rehab to an average standard and have my property management company to manage. Therefore, I won&#8217;t do the deal for my own portfolio unless I am making 15 percent net. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">A lot of people ask me what I&#8217;m doing in Toledo. I say I\u2019m here because the numbers make sense, and I moved here from Australia because it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. I just don\u2019t know of any other market where I can find a better return on investment. <a href=\"\/renewsblog\/invest-mid-west\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">It\u2019s all about the Midwest, period.<\/a> That\u2019s where the deals are and where the cash flow is. Forget about appreciation. Focus on the core fundamentals of that particular transaction as it lies today.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">If you live in an expensive market where you can&#8217;t find these numbers, move to market where you can. I did it. It\u2019s a sacrifice, but nothing comes easily, especially if you want financial freedom.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/calc\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-117195\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Signup_3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Signup_3.jpg 728w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Signup_3-300x37.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em><span class=\"s1\">Hate it or love it? I welcome your criticism and comments.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><strong><span class=\"s1\">Comment below. I\u2019d love to hear from you.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Invest in a market where the numbers make sense and just focus on the cash flow. That is my belief\u2014take it or leave it\u2014but I do not believe in appreciation. I do not believe in speculation. I believe in the core fundamentals of a deal as it lies today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1672,"featured_media":116757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4252],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-deal-analysis"],"acf":[],"comment_count":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1672"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100099\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}