{"id":102439,"date":"2018-09-20T00:02:43","date_gmt":"2018-09-20T06:02:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/renewsblog\/?p=102439"},"modified":"2023-02-09T20:19:54","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T03:19:54","slug":"biggerpockets-podcast-297-mastering-decision-making-process-business-and-world-series-pokerchampion-annie-duke","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/biggerpockets-podcast-297-mastering-decision-making-process-business-and-world-series-pokerchampion-annie-duke","title":{"rendered":"Mastering the Decision-Making Process with Business (and World Series of Poker) Champion Annie Duke"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In today\u2019s epic show, we interview <strong>World Series of Poker<\/strong> bracelet champion <strong>Annie Duke<\/strong>. Annie is a nationally sought-after speaker who combines her mastery of poker with a study of the cognitive sciences in a truly unique and brilliant way. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this show, you\u2019ll have your mind blown by Annie\u2019s insights regarding following conventional wisdom (even if it doesn\u2019t make sense), focusing too much on the results (and not enough on the right choice), and accepting a level of uncertainty to gain a HUGE advantage over your competition. Annie\u2019s theories on \u201cthinking in bets\u201d are designed to help others navigate a world where we can\u2019t be certain of an outcome, but still come out on top over time. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is an absolute can\u2019t-miss episode for those looking for strategies to overcome apprehension, fear, or uncertainty. Be sure to listen to this incredibly brilliant and powerful interview\u2014and get the tools to take your next steps today!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/biggerpockets-podcast-real\/id594419649\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click here<\/a>\u00a0to listen on iTunes.<\/p>\n<h2>Listen to the Podcast Here<\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/playlist.megaphone.fm\/?e=BIGPOC7933519520\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2>Read the Transcript Here<\/h2>\n<div style=\"overflow-y: scroll; max-height: 400px; background: #eee; padding: 20px; border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> This is the BiggerPockets podcast show<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">number 297.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> In poker you&#8217;re really forced<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to be keeping track of that in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">moment, so that&#8217;s super unusual. There&#8217;s kind of a bright side and a dark<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">side to that. The bright side is, it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really reminds you that every decision<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">even small executional decisions, on the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way to your larger goals carry risk with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">them. That there are real consequences<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that come from every single decision<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you make.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>You&#8217;re listening to<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>BiggerPockets Radio. Simplifying real<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>estate for investors large and small. If<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>you&#8217;re here looking to learn about real<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>estate investing without all the hype,<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>you&#8217;re in the right place. Stay tuned and<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>be sure to join the millions of others<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>who have benefited from BiggerPockets.<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>com.<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>\u00a0Your home for real estate investing<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>online.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> What&#8217;s up everybody this is David<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0G<\/span><span class=\"s1\">reene here with Scott Trench, your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">co-host for the BiggerPockets podcast<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">today. You are in for a treat. We had<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">one of the most exceptional mind-blowing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">conversations I&#8217;ve ever had in my life<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with World Series of Poker bracelet<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">champion Annie Duke. Who is also the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">author of\u00a0<i>Thinking in Bets<\/i>, one of Scott<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">renches&#8217; favorite books. I don&#8217;t even<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know how to describe how good this show<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is, but you guys are in for a treat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Yes, this is a way of thinking.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0H<\/span><span class=\"s1\">er mind, the way she thinks, the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way she approaches life is what I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">believe is the way to go through<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">business in life with the highest<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">possible probability of success over<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">time. This is the kind of thinking that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;ve tried to apply over the course the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">last few years, but when I read her book<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and found it articulated, the way that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">she wrote it. I was like, exactly, this is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">exactly what I&#8217;ve been striving for and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">these are all the things I need to do to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get to this way of thinking and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">approaching business in life for my<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">benefit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Now this is going to be huge for so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">many people because most of our<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">listeners talk about fear, uncertainty,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">apprehension, all these things that are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">keeping them from taking the steps that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they know they want to take. That is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Annie&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0specialty. Is not it just saying, &#8220;Just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get over it! Get over your stupid crap!&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hich is what most motivational speakers<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are going to tell you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Annie actually focuses<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">on how to reframe these emotions that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re feeling and think about it from a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">different structure, so that you don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">look at them and feel fear. Instead, you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">look at them and you see a strategy<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">behind how to move forward. This is an episode I can honestly say<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re probably going to want to listen to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">two, three, maybe four times because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re going to get more and more out of it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the more that you hear it. I&#8217;m very<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">excited about that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> All right well, should we hear a quick word<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">from today&#8217;s sponsor?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>Here&#8217;s a quick tip<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>for you. One of the easiest ways you can<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>protect your properties is investing in<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>a great security system. By far my<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>personal recommendation and the one I<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>use in my own home is SimpliSafe. Simpli<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>S<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>afe is awesome. It&#8217;s incredibly reliable<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>with a really fast response times, which<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>is huge.<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0I<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>t&#8217;s really easy to move between<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>properties and there&#8217;s no contracts<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>either. I really like it. I&#8217;m not alone.<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0I<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>t&#8217;s CNET&#8217;s Editor&#8217;s Choice and the Wirecutters call it the best home security.<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0G<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>o to simplisafe.com\/pockets to learn more. That&#8217;s simplisafe.com\/pockets.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> All right, big<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thanks to today&#8217;s sponsor. Real quick<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">before we bring on Annie Duke, I do want<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to shout-out Jordan Thibodeau.\u00a0Jordan is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">one of our bloggers in the Bigger<\/span><span class=\"s2\">P<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ockets blog. He&#8217;s also a guest on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0B<\/span><span class=\"s1\">iggerPockets podcast show number 74.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou can check out Jordan&#8217;s blog post and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">his contributions over at biggerpockets<\/span><span class=\"s2\">.<\/span><span class=\"s1\">com\/jordant &#8211; J-O-R-D-A-N-T, and that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">will redirect you right to his blog page.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0B<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ig thanks to Jordan for the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">introduction.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Without further ado, let&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bring in Annie Duke.\u00a0Welcome to the show Annie. How you doing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">today?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> I&#8217;m doing well! How are you guys?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> I&#8217;m doing great! How are you Dave?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">am fantastic! We have an awesome guest<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">today. I think our listeners are in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for a treat because we don&#8217;t get to hear<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">many people bring the perspective that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Annie&#8217;s going to have. I think when this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">show is over people are going to be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">looking at their businesses and their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lives and how they make decisions from a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">much, much different perspective.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> I hope so, that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my goal in life. Yes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Awesome. Well Annie,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">could you maybe let&#8217;s start from the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">beginning. Can we hear a little bit about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your career in poker and kind of maybe<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">give us some highlights or a story or two<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you think is relevant to the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision making process we&#8217;re going to talk<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><br \/>\n<b>Annie:<\/b> I started off my life actually<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in a pretty traditional way. I went to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Columbia Undergrad. I was kind of on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my way to being an academic because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">after Columbia I went off to UPenn to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">study Cognitive Psychology and the Ph.D.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">program there.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I had a National Science Foundation<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">fellowship and that&#8217;s what I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to do.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I sort of discovered, &#8220;Oh, guess what?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hen you leave school you don&#8217;t have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your fellowship anymore and you&#8217;re not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">teaching and &#8220;ooh,&#8221; I need money.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">During<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that year it was actually when I started<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">playing poker. I thought, I&#8217;m going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">start playing poker in the meantime,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">until I can get back out on the academic<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">job market. The &#8220;mean time&#8221; is like sort<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of joke turned into 20 years. I&#8217;ve<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">spent 20 years in the meantime. I played<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for 18 years actually as a professional<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker player. In 2012 I fully retired and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">started really focusing full-time on the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">work that resulted in the book\u00a0<i>Thinking<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0I<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>mpacts.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You know a couple of things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that people say to me is sort of twofold.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0O<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ne is like, how did you end up going<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">from poker to speaking about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision-making critical thinking skills<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and writing a book? The answer is,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">well, it&#8217;s not that crazy. a friend of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mine got asked to speak to a group of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">options traders about decision-making at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">risk in particular. My friend doesn&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like public speaking. He just really,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really hates it. He actually told the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">person, &#8220;Hey, you should have Annie do it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because Annie used to teach when she was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in graduate school. Because you would teach<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">undergraduate classes as a graduate<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">student and so she actually knows how to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">teach and you should have her come and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do it.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I got asked to do it. I was like,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">okay, I didn&#8217;t even know that was the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thing that people did, but okay I&#8217;ll go<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do that. I got up and I spoke in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">front of those administrator&#8217;s in 2002<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and totally loved it. It was reminded of why<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I loved being in academics. It felt<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like this really beautiful collision of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the academic work I was doing with the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">real-world decision-making problem that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker presents. It was this cool<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">merging of the two that I then got to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">express to an audience and this totally<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">awesome way where you know you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">learning from the audience and the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">audience is learning from you and it&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this really cool conversation that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re having and total win-win.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you quickly walk us through your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">approach to risk and decision-making that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you brought to this meeting? That first<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">one and that you&#8217;ve applied over this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ten year career?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> I got asked to come<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and talk about risk management. That&#8217;s what they really wanted me to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">talk about. The way that I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about risk in poker is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you have some sort of estimate of what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your edges. In other words,\u00a0what percentage advantage do you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have? You know how much money that you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have to put at risk given that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">percentage advantage. Then that kind<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of determines how much total money you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">need in terms of each individual the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">best investment. I could have talked<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about that, but I felt like there were<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lots of people who can talk about that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">very eloquently.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I wanted to bring<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">something different to the table. It&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">actually a very big problem in poker<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">which is you can sort of understand all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this stuff about how you&#8217;re supposed to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">manage risk, but the problem in poker is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that; let me sort of divide it into two.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here&#8217;s an advantage in what would the way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that poker works. We&#8217;re sitting across<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">from each other and then every few<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">seconds there&#8217;s chips<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that are moving around. Then at the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">end of a couple of minutes,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">chips either transferred from me to you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">or from you to me. You&#8217;re like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re marking in this very in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">moment way what your P&amp;L looks like,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right at that moment, right?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people think about marking like end of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">day P&amp;L; or and of week P&amp;L; or<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">something like that and you&#8217;re kind of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">trying to keep track of that. In poker<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re really forced to be keeping track<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of that in the moment. That&#8217;s super unusual. There&#8217;s kind of a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bright side and a dark side to that. The<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bright side is it really reminds you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that every decision even small<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">executional decisions on the way to your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">larger goals carry risk with them. That<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">there are real consequences that come<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">from every single decision that you make.\u00a0That&#8217;s kind of the good side<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is that it keeps you aware of that. That<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">there are no small decisions in that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sense, right?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The bad side is that you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get really emotionally yanked around, so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re seeing your path, right. You&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">seeing very recently has your chip stack<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">gone down, has your chip stack gone up?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ere you in a situation where you were<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really big mathematical favorite and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like things didn&#8217;t work out for you which can feel very unfair? What<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happens is that you&#8217;re getting<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">emotionally lit up a lot when you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">playing poker because of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this chip exchange that&#8217;s occurring<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">constantly. What goes along with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">being emotionally lit up is that very<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">often that has very negative effects on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your decision-making.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">What I found in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker was that there&#8217;s lots of people<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">who really understand sort of how to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">calculate risk. Sort of in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">absence of actually playing the game,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they would understand what the correct<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">play is, they&#8217;d understand how much money<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they should be risking at any given<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">moment in time or in any given game. They had good control of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">fundamentals, they were they were good;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">but when you actually put them in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">real-world situation their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision-making got so distorted by this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">path dependence. By whether their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">chips going up or whether their chips<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going down and they feel like something<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">unfair was happening at the table. Generally they would get off kilter<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because of these luck elements that can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">intervene.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That then it didn&#8217;t matter.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t doesn&#8217;t matter how good a decision<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">make you are if you&#8217;re\u00a0making emotional decisions that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">not particularly helpful. I felt like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">when I was going and talking to options<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">traders that again you know trading<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">options it&#8217;s very similar where you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">not taking just long positions. Where you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know you&#8217;re going to be holding a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">position for some long period<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of time, but instead you&#8217;re making these<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">trades that are really quick.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">talked to them actually\u00a0what&#8217;s this emotional issue? How do your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">emotions affect? What kind of risk<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">attitude you have? How much risk you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">willing to take on any given<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">moment in a way that can have a really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">negative effect on your results. That<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was the first talk that I ever gave.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> It<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sounds like what you&#8217;re talking about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">also is this concept of resulting that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you discussed in the book where people<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are, &#8220;Hey, I know the fundamentals. I know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the right play to make when in a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">risk-free setting, but once the chips are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">on the table I&#8217;m emotionally unable to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do that and after the play,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">after the hand is over I&#8217;m going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">judge my decision-making process by<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">whether I won or not versus whether I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">made the correct play in on that hand.&#8221; Is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that right?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes, so what I would say is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that these are outcome oriented in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sense that sort of what your recent<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcomes are particularly your path<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">seems to really matter in terms of how<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re processing it. Are you processing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in a positive light or a negative light?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I would just add just a little nuance<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to it. In this particular case what we&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">talking about is like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you could overall be winning a lot, but<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if you just lost something recently<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;ll be really sad, right. It&#8217;s like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what&#8217;s the slope look like? Are you on a downward trajectory or an<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">upward trajectory and that seems to be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what really matters for kind of what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happens to you emotionally.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The resulting<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">issue is an umbrella to that. Which is in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">general one of the biggest problems that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we have in our decision-making is that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we don&#8217;t live in the matrix where all of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that code is coming down in green and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you can kind of see it, so you know what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the different influences are on the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcome. We can broadly think about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">two categories of influences on the way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that our lives turn out. The way that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">things turn out is the sum of the broad<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">category of luck which are things that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we can&#8217;t control and the broad category<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of skill which is things that we can.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">e can think about skill is like, if I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">made the same decision again, could I say<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that with some probability that the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcome itself was related to the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision that I made in some predictable<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then lot of things that we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have actually no control over that you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">couldn&#8217;t say that there was any<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">relationship between the outcome and the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision there. You can think about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like in poker the luck element would be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the cards that are yet to come. For<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">example, that&#8217;s a really big luck element.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat I can put my money in with aces, you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">could put your money in with fives just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so your viewership knows that means that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I am going to win the pot basically 88<\/span><span class=\"s2\">%<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0of the time, but I can lose<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because there&#8217;s five more cards to come<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and I have no control over those and so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I can&#8217;t reliably repeat that those five<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">cards will come. That would be like a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really strong luck element. In our<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lives there&#8217;s all sorts of stuff that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happened that we don&#8217;t have control over.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Like here&#8217;s a really simple one. We have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">no control over the circumstances of our<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">birth. I was born in America at a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">particular time. Obviously there&#8217;s a lot<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of luck in the way that my life has<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">turned out simply because of that fact. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wasn&#8217;t born in 1650 for example, right. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was born in a time when women could work.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">omen could own property. That&#8217;s pretty<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">huge. I was born in America that&#8217;s pretty<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">nice. There&#8217;s all sorts of elements of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">luck in any decision.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then there&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this broad element of skill which is in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker we can think about it as that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the way that I choose to play the hand.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">he way that I choose to play the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hand is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with reliably predictive of how the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hands might turn out. This is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">actually so, but the problem is that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we can&#8217;t particularly after the fact<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">look back in a decision and say, &#8220;Oh, I can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">tell you what was luck and what was skill.&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">his is we&#8217;re trying to sort of parse<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this apart. The resulting problem<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">comes in kind of true forums. This broad<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thing where we&#8217;re trying to connect<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">together in some way, the quality of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcome the way that things have turned<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">out. We use that to try to derive<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the quality of the decision. That&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">kind of hard to do.\u00a0You guys are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">familiar with Pete Carroll&#8217;s end-of-game<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Super Bowl decision in 2015?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Yes!<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b>\u00a0David, I&#8217;m interested like\u00a0what do you think about that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">play?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> I, like most people, I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a basketball player. I loved basketball.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I studied basketball much like Scott<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with rugby, right. It was like my whole<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">life it&#8217;s my first love. I never really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was a football guy, so when I heard<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">everyone saying, &#8220;What an idiot.&#8221; All my<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">football buddies were talking about, what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">an idiot, I let myself get sucked in and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking, &#8220;Yes, he must be an idiot.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0E<\/span><span class=\"s1\">veryone thinks he&#8217;s an idiot. Why didn&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">he run? He had Marshawn Lynch, right?&#8221; Then I heard Pete Carroll&#8217;s explanation.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t was very, very sensible. He said,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0&#8220;W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ell, we had enough time for this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">many plays. If we ran it, didn&#8217;t get it, we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wouldn&#8217;t have another shot or we&#8217;d have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">one shot. We&#8217;d have two chances to throw<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and if both them resulted in completion,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we&#8217;d still have time to run it in, right.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> The only thing that could possibly go<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wrong was the interception, and that ends<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">up being what happened, right. Then I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was like, &#8220;Oh, I feel stupid.&#8221; Like, that guy<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">knows way more about football than I did.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hy would I think he&#8217;s an idiot when I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know that I don&#8217;t know football at all.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t changed my whole perspective on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">following the crowd like a sheep, right.\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s2\">T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hey had no skin in the game. It&#8217;s easy<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for us to criticize the guy. He&#8217;s got his<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">whole career on the line. He knows way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">more than we do and I&#8217;m still judging<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">him. I have no idea if that&#8217;s the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">point you were going to make, but that was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the perspective that I took when I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">walked away from that is, maybe next time<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I should do a little more research<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">before I formed my opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><br \/>\n<b>Annie:<\/b> Yes, so actually that is totally the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">point. Here&#8217;s the problem is that,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we don&#8217;t understand what Pete Carroll<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">understands, right. Just from<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">watching the play, we have no access to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the decision, right. We don&#8217;t really know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what was luck, what was skill? We don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know what Pete Carroll was thinking. We<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t know what the decision tree looks<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">e use this shortcut, when things are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">opaque to us. We use a shortcut where we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">say, &#8220;Oh, if I know what the quality of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcome is, then that tells me what I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">need to know about the quality of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That&#8217;s exactly what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happened in the Pete Carroll case. 26<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">seconds left,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">second down, one timeout that was what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Pete Carroll was saying about this time<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">management problem. He&#8217;s got a choice.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0H<\/span><span class=\"s1\">e can hand it off to Marshawn Lynch. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know, one of the greatest short yardage<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">running backs of all time, or he can pass<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the ball, and we know what he did. He<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">passed the ball, very famously<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">intercepted by Malcom Butler to end the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">game. Because they were down by four, all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they needed to do was score a touchdown.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">e can agree this was like a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">disastrous outcome. We know that. What<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happened? Like all your buddies were<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">saying, &#8220;Oh, it was a disastrous decision.&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">n fact, people were saying it was the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">worst decision in Super Bowl history. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think USA Today said it was the worst<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision in all of football history.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat&#8217;s pretty extreme. Definitely, one<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of the worst outcomes in football<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">history. I think that we can agree to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that. Although I don&#8217;t know what&#8217;s that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">one play where the guy&#8217;s leg totally<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">gets broken on television? I think that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">probably a worse outcome. You know what I&#8217;m talking about.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Man.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> I think the Redskins quarterback, was it<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes!<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Theismann, was it?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes, yes, yes! That&#8217;s it, Joe Theismann.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> That was terrible.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> It was terrible. Anyway, so here&#8217;s the interesting<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thing and I think that we can sort of go to\u00a0ways with this to kind of get down into<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what the problem is. Let&#8217;s start with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this thought experiment.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">What do you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think that the headlines would have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">looked like had the ball been caught for<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a touchdown? What do you think your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">friends would have been saying?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Pete<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Carroll&#8217;s a genius. They were expecting him<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to run with Marshawn Lynch and he saw it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">coming so they stacked the box and he<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">went over the top and man that guy just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">knew what was coming and was one step<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ahead of he&#8217;s the best coach of football.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Right, exactly, so we know that at the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">moment of the decision there&#8217;s kind of a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">few possible outcomes that have could<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">occur. You know obviously there could be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like a fumble or a stack, let&#8217;s set those<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">aside, but out of the things that occur in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the end zone, there&#8217;s an interception and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">incomplete pass and touchdown.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">e know that those are the three<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcomes. At the moment that Pete<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Carroll makes a decision, he&#8217;s just going<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">by sort of what creates the best<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">possible set of outcomes. What increases<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my chance of scoring the most?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0A<\/span><span class=\"s1\">nything that happens after that, we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">can put into the luck category.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">What&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">interesting here is that we know when<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the ball is intercepted that everybody&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like, &#8220;Uh, That&#8217;s such a terrible decision,&#8221; but<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">when the ball is caught, you can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">immediately feel it, right. &#8220;Uh! That was a good<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision,&#8221; but that doesn&#8217;t have anything<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to do with whether the decision itself<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was great. We&#8217;re using this heuristic<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">called resulting. Saying if I know what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the quality of the outcome was, therefore<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I know what the quality of the decision<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Let&#8217;s start with this, the chances<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of an interception there, at most 2%.\u00a0Right there we know like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">something super unlucky must have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happened, right. It was this thing that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happens only 2% of the time and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">as you pointed out, what you&#8217;re buying<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for that 2% is an extra play.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0A<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ll right, so that&#8217;s one way that we can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">kind of get at this problem resulting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">H<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ere&#8217;s the other way we can sort of see<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">why we result. This is kind of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">interesting. I&#8217;m going to give you a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">different thought experiment. Let&#8217;s say<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that he hands it off to Marshawn Lynch<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and Marshawn Lynch just doesn&#8217;t get past<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the Patriots line. He gets stopped at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the goal line and now they burn that one<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">time out so that they can run another<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">running play. They burn the time out, they<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hand it off to Marshawn Lynch again and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">once again on his second attempt to get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">stopped at the goal line. Now what do you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think the headlines look like? Do you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think there&#8217;s a whole lot of criticism<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of Pete Carroll there?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Probably not. It&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">probably more like, &#8220;Couldn&#8217;t get it done!&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou know, &#8220;Big stop by the Patriots, great<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">defense!&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Right, so this is super revealing.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;ll tell you why this is really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">revealing. Here&#8217;s the problem with this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">resulting. Here&#8217;s the problem with saying,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0w<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ell, when the ball is caught it&#8217;s a good<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision; when the ball is dropped it&#8217;s a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bad decision which is that there&#8217;s too<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">much noise, there&#8217;s too much luck that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">occurs between the moment of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision and the moment of the outcome,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0b<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ecause we&#8217;re not playing chess. If<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m playing chess against you and I lose<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a game, we know because there&#8217;s very<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">little luck and there really isn&#8217;t any<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hidden information. Those are the two<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sources of uncertainty that stuff we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t know and the luck element the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">stuff we can&#8217;t control.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We know that if I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lose a game of chess you I made worse<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decisions than you did. We know that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for sure, so we can actually work<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">backwards. In poker we can&#8217;t do that.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">f I lose a hand<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of poker to you, we don&#8217;t really know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">very much about my decision-making<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">compared to yours, but we act like we do.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat&#8217;s that first thought experiment.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t&#8217;s because we don&#8217;t really know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">how much luck is involved in the outcome<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and so we use this as a shortcut, but<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">notice when we hand it off to Marshawn<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Lynch all of a sudden we allow for the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">luck element. We allow for the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertainty.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat&#8217;s the luck element here? Well, if we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">say it was just because the Patriots<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">were too good, Pete Carroll doesn&#8217;t have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">any control over that. That goes out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of Pete Carroll&#8217;s skill into the luck<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">categories.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Just weirdly, if they fail to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">score with Marshawn Lynch we allow all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this uncertainty to become the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">explanation. Why? Because we feel like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">there&#8217;s consensus around the running<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">play. We feel like we know what the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">answer is there. That we know it&#8217;s a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">good play and so therefore if they lose<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it must not have anything to do with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Here&#8217;s a super simple example of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that. If I run a red light and I get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">through the light safely, you don&#8217;t think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s a good decision. You don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">result in that case. You don&#8217;t take the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">quality of the outcome. Might a good<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcome and assume that that means I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">made a good decision likewise, if I run a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">green light and I get in an accident you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t blame me for it. Because there&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">consensus around the decision so what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happens is that we don&#8217;t do this kind of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">strange sort shortcut.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Now why is this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like so incredibly devastating? Well,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because what it means is that it drives<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people to that saying you know fail<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">conventionally. Because if Pete Carroll<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">had chosen to fail conventionally right,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if he had chosen to just hand in it up<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and say here&#8217;s the thing that everybody<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">does, here&#8217;s the consensus choice so I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just going to do that because then I know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if it doesn&#8217;t work out nobody&#8217;s going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">yell at me and nobody&#8217;s going to blame me.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat&#8217;s what that drives people to do.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hey look ahead and they say, well, the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">world is going to all result on me. If I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have a bad outcome they&#8217;re all going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">point the finger at me and say I&#8217;m an<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">idiot and is it worth it for the chance<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I have the good outcome for them to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">pat me on the back? Well, I don&#8217;t know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because I mean every<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people have been yelling about this play<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for three years now, right and really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">still pointing fingers at him. What<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happens is when we know that people do that it makes us choose consensus<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">choices, it makes us<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">choose conventional choices and what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">does that do? That really slows<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">innovation down.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We can see that in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the NFL because they&#8217;re not going for it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">on fourth down enough. We already know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that. They&#8217;ve been very slow to adopt<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that. You can see that in the NHL<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">where they don&#8217;t take the goalie out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">quickly enough. Why? Because people<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t really understand that that&#8217;s a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">good choice. They don&#8217;t understand the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mathematics behind it, so if someone<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">takes a goalie out early and the team<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">loses the game what do you think&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happened into that coach?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We can think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about how that applies to our own lives,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. Like how are we going down the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">more conventional route and not taking<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">chances because we&#8217;re worried that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people are going to point fingers at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ourselves. The most important person<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we need to worry about pointing fingers<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at ourselves is us.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> I got a question<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here at that. You know this does apply to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you know let&#8217;s say that you&#8217;re listening<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to the show. You&#8217;re a middle-class<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">family with you know no investable<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">assets. Say less than $5,000 in cash,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">some home equity and a 401 (K) right. What<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re saying is basically, you can&#8217;t go<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with that. You can&#8217;t apply this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">line of thinking and play to win because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re stuck in this kind of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">conventional mindset trap. You know like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Pete Carroll played to win, but you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">saying my most NFL coaches are not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">playing to win. They&#8217;re stuck in this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">conventional mindset, right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Now I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that this logic directly applies. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">make a direct connection between this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">logic and why middle-class America is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">not investing in a way that with their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">personal wealth to win, right. Because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they&#8217;re not going to take 50 to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">$100,000 to potentially put themselves<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at a total loss at odds with convention<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0e<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ven if that&#8217;s the smart approach. Is that a fair connection to drive<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">from this and how do we overcome that?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes, so I think that that is totally a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">fair connection to drive from this. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think that you see it all over the place,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. Here&#8217;s a really good place that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you see it. The difference between<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">someone who is in a startup versus<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">somebody who is in business it&#8217;s in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">operational mode, right. That&#8217;s a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">more mature business. In the startup<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">there&#8217;s no consensus choice. That&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sort of the definition of being an<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">entrepreneur. We know that all choices<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are not consensus choices. Aren&#8217;t all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">choices are unconventional. What is that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">free people up to do? It frees people up<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to fail, right.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t frees people have to say, look, we&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just going to throw some spaghetti at the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wall and we&#8217;re going to try out a bunch of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">stuff and because everything&#8217;s kind of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like, yes, we don&#8217;t really know.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We&#8217;re not really going to be pointing a lot<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of fingers at bad outcomes because we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t really know what the best decision<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is. We&#8217;re just experimenting here. You get this environment of amazing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">innovation that occurs within a startup<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because there is no consensus choice<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that people are being driven into.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0B<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ecause they&#8217;re worried about the way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that they&#8217;re going to be evaluated, but once<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you get into a company that&#8217;s in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a more mature state, that&#8217;s in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">operational mode, what happens? You have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">layers of management and you have the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way that things are done, right. You have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the process that that particular manager<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">likes. What do most<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">leaders say? We&#8217;re results oriented.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">might be one of the worst things that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you can say to people who work for you,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. We&#8217;re results oriented. What does<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that mean? Is that they know for a fact&#8230;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">well, think about it, when people are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">doing a weekly meeting where they&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">trying to deconstruct the week&#8217;s results.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0H<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ow much time are they spending<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">deconstructing and questioning when they<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">win, right? Are they going, &#8220;Whoa! We had<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this amazing win. Let&#8217;s deconstruct that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and try to figure out all the mistakes<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that we made and how we could have done<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better or maybe that we should have done<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">worse. Whoa! Let&#8217;s really look and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">tear apart that outcome.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">No! Every week<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at the end of the week you&#8217;re looking at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">all the bad results and you&#8217;re trying to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">deconstruct them to try to figure out if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you could have done a better job, if you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">could have somehow avoided them. What<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">message does that send to your employees?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat message does that send to the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people who are making decisions and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">trying to manage the risk along the way?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ell, I&#8217;m going to have to sit here at the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">end of the week and listen to my bad<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">results, so what am I going to do? I&#8217;m going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">make sure that I can cover my ass. I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to make sure that I&#8217;ve got consensus<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if I need to along on my team. I&#8217;m going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">create false consensus which means I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just going to get everybody to agree for<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the sake of agreeing. I&#8217;m not going to be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">trying to find the best way. I&#8217;m not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be trying to challenge the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">status quo in any way, in order to get to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a place where I can do some really cool<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">innovative things that are out of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">box because I&#8217;m going to get yelled at for<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">When you sit here and you say, why<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is it that like\u00a0that a startup can beat a really big company when<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the big company has all the resources?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">e&#8217;ll just look to resulting as a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">problem. Like, people are saying we&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">results oriented. That&#8217;s what you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">being judged on. By the way, no matter<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">how much leadership says, &#8220;No, no, no, no, no,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we&#8217;re process oriented.&#8221; If at the end of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the week you&#8217;re only looking at the bad<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">results and deconstructing those, it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">doesn&#8217;t matter what words come out of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your mouth. People can read the actions<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">loud and clear.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> I cannot tell you how<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">much of a game-changer has been<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for me when I realized I was doing this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in my own head. I know in the movie<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<i>R<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>ounders<\/i>, a famous poker movie, they talk<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about how every poker player remembers<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">their bad beats. They know the hand that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they should have won and they did<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">everything right. In fact this just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happened to me with Brandon Turner in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Austin not too long ago. I pulled him in,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I got him in and put all his chips in and he<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">caught a card on the river he took<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">everything I had went to the winners<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">table, right.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou remember those. You don&#8217;t remember<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">when you caught the card, right. When you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">got lucky and you messed up and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">everything worked out in your favor, you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t remember for whatever reason like,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0&#8220;M<\/span><span class=\"s1\">an, I should do this more often I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">might get lucky even if I make a mistake.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I can&#8217;t tell you how many investors<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I meet that, when I say something like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they find a great deal like this is a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">no-brainer homerun can&#8217;t lose deal and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they&#8217;re afraid to do it and I say, &#8220;why<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t you just take a HELOC on your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">property and take out a 5% loan interest<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">only that you can pay back whenever you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want.&#8221; The minute they hear the word<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0HELOC,<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0they think 2010, when everyone<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lost their home and they go into that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">conventional thinking, HELOCs are bad,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they shut down, they don&#8217;t hear any logic<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of what I&#8217;m saying and they say, &#8220;I can&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do this. What if I lose my home. My family<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">will be homeless. I&#8217;ll be raising my<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">little girl in a car.&#8221; They miss out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because they&#8217;re not thinking about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what&#8217;s my risk if I don&#8217;t make this move,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. Like, how much money am I leaving<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in the pot if I don&#8217;t bluff with this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">few chips here? This could be a really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">easy one for me.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I know one of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">big struggles for most BiggerPockets<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">listeners is that they have this fear of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">getting started, or this fear of making<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mistakes. You hear people talk about,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0&#8220;O<\/span><span class=\"s1\">h man, I didn&#8217;t see this coming.&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t turns out that there was a termite<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">problem that nobody caught. I don&#8217;t want<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to ever do this again because something<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bad could happen, but I often don&#8217;t think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about 80% of the time my house is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">appraised for more than what I planned<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">on. My rehab budget comes in less<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">than what I planned on. I made more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">money than what I thought I would make.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat deal let me to relationships<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that brought another two deals my way,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We get out of that line<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking of acknowledging how some of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this risk that we&#8217;re taking is actually<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">opening up more doors to build our wealths.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0S<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ometimes the riskiest move is not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">making a move at all. Can you tell us<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a little bit Annie like what in your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">experience of studying this you found<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">helps people to overcome that natural<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">tendency to focus on negative and not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think about how their inaction is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">costing them way more than making a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mistake one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes, so here&#8217;s the thing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I would say is that, so first of all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to the point of what you just said, we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have a really big bias to looking at bad<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">results in an upward direction that are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">commissioned. What does that mean? Its<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">things we chose to do, investments that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we made that didn&#8217;t work out. Then we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">asked ourselves a very particular<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">question, could we have done<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better, could we have not lost on this? That&#8217;s the set of things that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">were examining, but there&#8217;s a whole world<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if we say, no, we want to examine the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">whole world of things that we should be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">examining.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We should examine the deals<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that we didn&#8217;t do and ask what that cost<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">us, right. That we want to look at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is keep track of the things that were<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">under consideration or the things that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we might have missed and that we didn&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">commit to and think about those ingests<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is an important way as the things that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we do, so that gets to what you just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">said. We want to also be direction<\/span><span class=\"s2\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">neutral. What that means is that, if I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">say if I look at a loss, I want to ask<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">myself both questions, could I have lost<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">less, but I also want to say, should I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have lost more? Sometimes for example,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we invest too small in a deal that we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lost, but when we look back on it,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">actually it turns out that it was a much<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better deal than we thought. Even though we lost on it we should have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">actually lost more because our position<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0in<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0it should have been bigger, as an<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">example right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">This would be in a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker case for example, I can lose a pot<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">where I lost money, but actually given<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the situation I should have had much<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">more money invested in that pot so I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">should have actually lost a lot more. That&#8217;s really hard to sort of get our<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">heads around so that&#8217;s the direction we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to look in both directions. Then<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we also want to look equally at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">unexpected wins as unexpected\u00a0losses. When I just heard you say, &#8220;Oh,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it actually appraised for a lot more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">than I thought and I came in way under<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0our<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0budget than what I thought I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to come in.&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou should be just as concerned about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that bad forecast as when it comes in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">over budget and appraises for less<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because in both cases you haven&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0actually forecasted it well, right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span class=\"s1\">It may<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be that there were things that had to do<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with luck and actually there was stuff<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you could not have known. Given<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the information that you had your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">forecast was good, but sometimes you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really truly miss something that was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">knowable that would have told you that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it would appraise for more. When you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have those good things happen, like it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">appraised far way more than I thought.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0D<\/span><span class=\"s1\">on&#8217;t just pat yourself on the back, you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">should be asking yourself the question<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">why did I miss that?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hen it comes in way under budget? Why<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was my budget projection off? Maybe it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was because I just had a lot of stuff<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that was built into contingency which I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">always do and I got lucky on this case.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t&#8217;s a whole bunch of stuff went my way,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">but maybe I really did actually miss-forecast that. Like maybe there was a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">problem with my forecast there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to look equally at things that are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">unexpected on the losing side and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">unexpected on the winning side. Then<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we want to ask in both directions on the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">winning side, right. Could I have done<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better, but also should I have done worse?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0M<\/span><span class=\"s1\">aybe I actually got really lucky on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this situation and I shouldn&#8217;t have been<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">invested in it the first place. &#8220;Boy phew!<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hank God things went my way.&#8221; Let&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just start there and if we can create<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that structure around the way that we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think, that&#8217;s going to be very helpful<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and sort of fending off this problem. We want to think about things that we do<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">as well as things that we don&#8217;t. Lots of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">unexpected losses as well as unexpected<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wins and upward and downward direction.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">That&#8217;s first. Create that structure<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s going to be really helpful.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Second, the fact is that our minds just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">work this way. You know people talk about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">software, let&#8217;s call this mindware and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this is the mind where that got<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">installed at birth. There&#8217;s only so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">much we can do because we can&#8217;t like to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sort of steal from Gary Marcus here<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">who&#8217;s an amazing guy who does a lot<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of work in AI and Cognitive Science.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0C<\/span><span class=\"s1\">an&#8217;t take our brains offline. Have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">someone go and install new stuff on it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and then stick it back in our head, like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that doesn&#8217;t work for us. You kind of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have to work with what you have. This<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is where I say, you&#8217;re only going to get so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">far on your own. Someone was asking me<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about, &#8220;Well, you know so much about bias,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">how many of your decisions do you think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are biased?&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I said, &#8220;All of them.&#8221; I really mean<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that because that you know do I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">catch it quicker and I may be a little<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">less biased than somebody else in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">certain cases? I&#8217;m sure, but every<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision I make is biased because that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the way that I&#8217;m built.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Once I sort of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">recognize that and I say look, there&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">only so much I&#8217;m going to be able to do on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my own. The key is to go find some people to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">watch your back. Just go find it. It could be two. It could be a bigger<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">group than that, but you want at least<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">three people in the group. There&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">something special about three. Say,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0&#8220;O<\/span><span class=\"s1\">kay, here&#8217;s what we&#8217;re going to do, we&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to watch each other&#8217;s backs and we&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to check each other&#8217;s by it.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Let&#8217;s take it in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker example that you talked about. Like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker players are always talking about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bad beats. I was very lucky to land in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a group with people like Eric Seidel for<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">example and my brother, where that was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just not tolerated. If I walked up to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">them and said, Oh, I can&#8217;t believe I lost<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this hand. I got so unlucky and I&#8217;m sure<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you have the equivalent in your industry.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou know I can&#8217;t believe that happened. How couldn&#8217;t I&#8217;ve seen that coming,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I was\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so unlucky. You know, that stupid<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">appraiser, right.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">If I went up and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">tried to have that conversation with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people they would have shut me down. They<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">would have said, &#8220;Well, what&#8217;s the point of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this?&#8221; Like if you really just got unlucky<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and you have the sad story to tell me<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because this horrible thing happened<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that was out of your control, there&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">literally nothing to learn from it.\u00a0Eric actually said something<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really important to me, he said, &#8220;I have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bad stuff happened too that I&#8217;m dealing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with every day.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m losing hands that feel really unfair<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to me. Why do I need your emotional<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">baggage on top of mine?&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">What he said<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to me was, look I want to engage with you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about poker, but I don&#8217;t want to engage<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">on the stuff that just has to do with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bad luck. I want you to come and tell me<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hands that you have questions about. If<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you have a question about a hand, whether<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you won or lost the hand so this is\u00a0sort of being neutral to direction. If<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you have a question about a hand that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you lost,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">fire it away! Now, notice what&#8217;s happened<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in that agreement. It&#8217;s like we&#8217;re going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">watch each other&#8217;s back because I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be able to see when you&#8217;re being<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">biased and you&#8217;re not thinking clearly<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about the results that you have in a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better way that I&#8217;m going to be able to see<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that for myself. Likewise, you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be able to see my bias better than<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I can see it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I can watch your bias,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you can watch my bias and we can make a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">commitment that were the group\u00a0that thinks about accuracy, that thinks<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about finding the truth instead of just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">making ourselves feel better in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the moment. Which is a lot of what this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">problem is. We can think about, for<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">example, when we have a bad outcome and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we just say, &#8220;Oh, I got unlucky,&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">or when we have a really good outcome,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like it appraises for way more than we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thought and we just pat ourselves on the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">back,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s not grabbing that for a learning<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">experience. That&#8217;s just trying to make<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ourselves feel better in the moment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">When<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we make a conventional choice worrying<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about how we&#8217;re going to be judged for it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">later,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it&#8217;s making sure that we&#8217;re sort of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">making ourselves feel better in case we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have a bad outcome. That doesn&#8217;t mean<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we&#8217;re making the best choice. What we&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">focused on is I just want to always sort<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of feel like I&#8217;m right. Like, I didn&#8217;t do<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">anything wrong,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. As opposed to I want to come up<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with the best choice possible.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Let&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">make an agreement this is what we&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to reinforce for ourselves. Now<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">when I go up to you and I say, &#8220;Hey, David<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I think I made a really big mistake here.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I don&#8217;t know how I could have been<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so off on the appraisal. Can you help me<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with it?&#8221; You now pat me on the back<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for that behavior. Think about how much<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better my decision-making is going to be.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hink about how much more clearly I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be thinking about the results that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I have. When I come and talk to you and I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">say, Hey, I&#8217;m thinking about making this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">investment, but I&#8217;m really scared of this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">particular type of loan because of what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happened in 2010 and I kind of really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to understand how much of this is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">me worrying about what the results going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be versus whether there&#8217;s too much risk<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in the position that I want to take and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s what we start talking about, think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about how much better my decision-making<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is going to be.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m just a huge fan of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">saying, don&#8217;t do it alone. You can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">try and you&#8217;ll be a little bit better if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you try to do it alone, but you&#8217;re going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be so much better in a group. We are all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to reinforce this. Now you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be the tribe that thinks this way.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0H<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ere&#8217;s what&#8217;s going to be amazing for<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you because this is what happened in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou&#8217;ve got your tribe that thinks this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way, that really watches each other&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">back, that really calls each other out on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bias, that really tries to think about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcomes in a really clear headed way.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">N<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ow you&#8217;re going to walk down the halls<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of the next meeting that you&#8217;re at, the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">next convention that you&#8217;re at and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re going to hear other groups<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">talking in this other way,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that most people talk in and you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to hear the difference and you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to really say, &#8220;Wow! We&#8217;re really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">working hard at this.&#8221; We&#8217;re doing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">something different than other people<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are doing and that&#8217;s going to feel really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">good.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> It&#8217;s the difference between winning<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and losing and caring about winning and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">losing and then winning losing and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">caring about your decision making<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">process? I&#8217;m going to go in and I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">could win, you can win the World Series<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of Poker and you might even be upset<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about it because you\u00a0made a bunch of poor decisions along the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way, or you could lose and you&#8217;ll be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like, you know what, if I keep<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">playing like that I&#8217;m going to keep winning<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">even though the outcome wasn&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really good today.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">This<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision-making process when I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">reading your book, I was like, this is the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">correct way to go about life. This is the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">correct way to go about business. It<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">doesn&#8217;t matter. If you can&#8217;t focus on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the core decision-making processes with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a long-term focus on improving those<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">underlying factors in your decision-making, you&#8217;re going to produce<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">exponentially greater results year in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and year out regardless of the day to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">day losses that you just feel better.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">feel better about my life in general as<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;ve applied this process over the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">last couple of years really.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hen really kind of it better since<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;ve read your book and formalized it I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">guess.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>Annie:<\/b> L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ook, here&#8217;s the deal. It&#8217;s like I don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have a problem with outcome signaling<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for you like being the impetus<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for you going in and looking process. You know certainly when we have things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that are\u00a0unexpected things happen, it&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">usually a good trigger to look go<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">look at process. You do always<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to be picking a part process. Having something that triggers you to go<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">look at it is good because it means that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the process doesn&#8217;t become stale. It<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">doesn&#8217;t just be like, this is the way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;ve always done it and so great.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a problem with it being so focused on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">losses, right. Because then that does get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">us to care about winning and losing only<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">as opposed to about whether the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decisions themselves are winning and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">losing. I can tell you like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because of this really or early<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">intervention that I had in my life<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">through Eric Seidel and the speech that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">he gave me. That was very loud and clear<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you know like I just don&#8217;t want to hear<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it if it&#8217;s about luck. Like tell me about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">things that you have actual control over.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t really changed the way that I thought<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so I can give sort of two I think good<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">examples from poker on this. The first is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I used to have people say to me all the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">time like, &#8220;Don&#8217;t you get just so upset<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">when there&#8217;s bad players and they play<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">some stupid hand and they beat you? How can you even deal with that? Like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">doesn&#8217;t that just piss you off?&#8221; I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like, &#8220;No, I&#8217;m really grateful that those<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people are willing to sit down at a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker table and play with me.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That&#8217;s your point Scott right, which<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is that&#8217;s great if they keep<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">playing those hands. I might have lost<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this one hand, but that&#8217;s really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">irrelevant. Because if they continue to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">make those errors against me obviously<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s going to play out over time. Because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we know I&#8217;m not going to win every single<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">one. You know we&#8217;re playing the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">probabilities here. I&#8217;m going to lose on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">some things and win on some, but I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to win more than I lose and that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what&#8217;s going to matter so thank God that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">person exists, right. That&#8217;s the first<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The second thing is actually, this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">first came to me when somebody once<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">asked me like, &#8220;Can you tell me the worst<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">beat that you ever took?&#8221; I thought<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about it I realized like, I don&#8217;t really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have a lot of memory for those things.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">he most memorable hand that I have is a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hand that I won, but that I just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">butchered. I mean I played this hand so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poorly and it was a big learning<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">moment for me. This was right when<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker got on television. Prior to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker being on TV there was a particular<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way that people tended to play and there<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was a particular way that people sort of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">valued their hands. One person might<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">value a pair differently than another<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">person might value the exact same pair.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t&#8217;s a little bit person dependent,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">how strong you think that hand is or not.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hen poker got on television, that all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">changed. Like the conventional ways that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people thought about the value of their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hands really shifted, but I had had my<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">fourth baby during that year and so I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was behind the curve on this one. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">didn&#8217;t quite realize how much the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">average person&#8217;s perception of what the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">value of their hand was.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I played a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hand thinking that when I played the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hand this particular way, that the person<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">would surely fold what I was very sure<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was a pair. I made a very big bluff on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with one card left to come where the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">chances that my hand would actually win<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">were 8%. I clearly wasn&#8217;t betting all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this money because I thought, &#8220;Wow, my hand<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is so great.&#8221; I was going to lose the hand<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">92% at that time, like that wasn&#8217;t the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">point. The point<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I was very sure they had a pair and I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was sure that if I made this play the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">guy would fold. I made this play and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">he called me faster than anything that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;ve seen. In fact so fast that I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thought, &#8220;Oh, I totally have him on the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wrong hand. He clearly doesn&#8217;t just have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a pair. He obviously must have three of a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">kind,&#8221; and wow, that was really stupid of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">me. What a bad read.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Well, don&#8217;t worry, I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hid the 8%. I needed exactly a jack.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I got a jack. I actually made the very<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">best hand. I ended up winning the pot and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">when he showed me his cards it was the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">exact hand that I thought he had, but I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was totally and utterly wrong about the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way that he would react to his cards. In<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a way that was completely mortifying to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">me as I&#8217;m scooping in the biggest part<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of this tournament that I&#8217;d won thus far<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and I was just like, how could I have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">been so completely wrong? That&#8217;s what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really concerned me.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">For me that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the most memorable hand I ever played.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">his moment of just, &#8220;Holy cow! Did I ever<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get that situation wrong?&#8221; That&#8217;s really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mortifying. Let me think about this and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it actually made me go talk to some<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people who&#8217;ve been playing a little bit<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">more under those circumstances. This was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my first tournament back and really says<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like, &#8220;What\u2019s going on?&#8221; Because I really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wasn&#8217;t expecting that. It clearly made a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really big mistake. They all started<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">laughing at me because of course they&#8217;d<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">been playing for you know a year or<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really under those circumstances and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they were like, yes, I know that was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really bad.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">That I can&#8217;t credit<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">myself with. Like that&#8217;s completely the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">group that I was involved with.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0R<\/span><span class=\"s1\">etraining the way that I thought.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0R<\/span><span class=\"s1\">etraining the way that I thought about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">things.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> That&#8217;s a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">world-class championship mentality to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">life and business, right. I mean, David, do<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you have examples from your business<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">where you kind of apply the same<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking? Do you have wins that you look back<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">on as things that just made poor<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decisions in?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Yes, tons of it. It&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">not just with investing with my real<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">estate agent business, with other things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;ve done in life where the result ended<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">up good and I got a lot of credit, but I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">knew inside, &#8220;Oh, if they only knew. I know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I messed that up, or I know that could<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have went horrible for me. I thought I got<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lucky there.&#8221; I think that if the more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">humility you have where you&#8217;re honest<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with yourself about these things, the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">more likely you are to come to the light<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sooner.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><br \/>\nAnnie clearly has known just and be herself<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at all. Like Annie has enough humility she<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">can say, &#8220;I know I screwed that up.&#8221; Where<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">someone else would be like, there they<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">would automatically kick in and start<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">trying to tell themselves as a defense<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mechanism, &#8220;Yes, I knew that that was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to happen, or well, if I did it enough<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">times that would work;&#8221; but you&#8217;re saying<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I assumed he would know his hand wasn&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that good, but he thought it was because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">he hadn&#8217;t watched enough poker. Poker<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wasn&#8217;t played this way for a long time<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and you called it wrong.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The thing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I think is why I just love real<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">estate is even if you do everything<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wrong; like I hear people say, &#8220;Oh my gosh,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my property manager lied to me. They said<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I wouldn&#8217;t have to fix all this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">stuff that I did. They told me the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">rent would be 1,100 and now it&#8217;s only<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">900 and I thought I was going to make 300 a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">month and now I&#8217;m barely making a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hundred. This is horrible. I hate real<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">estate. I never want to do it again.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">If<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you just zoom out and you think about 30<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">years later, when that house you paid 200<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for is worth 800 and the tenant has paid<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it off for you. Your rent went up<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">every year after that, so in two or three<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">years you&#8217;re getting the 300 you thought<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you were getting. That house is going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">make you an insane amount of wealth. You will never look back and say, &#8220;I never<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">should have done it,&#8221; but in the moment,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your feelings are telling you, this was a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">horrible mistake and so many people quit.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">f you just bought one house a year<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like that over the next 30 years you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">would be a multi-millionaire of money<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that your tenants paid you by taking<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that different perspective.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s what people are missing out on is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">when they&#8217;re focusing on the result they<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">got in the moment and thinking about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what didn&#8217;t happen the way that they<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thought it would. Not taking the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">consideration factors like inflation and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the fact rents go up all the time and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">interest rates are insanely low. Like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the population of the US is not likely<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to stop growing. Like all this money<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">from other countries is flooding into<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ARCA. There&#8217;s all these things we&#8217;re not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking about because we&#8217;re focusing on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the stupid property manager that lied to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you and now you don&#8217;t trust people so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you don&#8217;t want to buy anymore and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they&#8217;re shooting themselves in the foot.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I know Scott talks a lot in his book<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<i>S<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>et for Life<\/i>\u00a0about conventional wisdom<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">says, you know if you just didn&#8217;t buy a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">cup of coffee every day, you could save<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">$40 a month. With that over 20 years<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you could turn that into whatever that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">would be right? Rather than saying, well,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if you got rid of that $2,000 mortgage<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">payment and your house act and you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">dropped it to 500 and you invested the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">$1,500 it&#8217;d be this huge, huge difference.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat&#8217;s why I want people listening<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to this to buy Annie&#8217;s book and to consider very\u00a0strongly what Annie is saying<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0b<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ecause the rest of the world is doing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this. Like they&#8217;re all just following<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that conventional wisdom. Following their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">fears not thinking about what could go<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. If you are that person that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">takes action and we haven&#8217;t even<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mentioned the fact that because Annie is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">willing to go in there and lose money<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and risk money playing poker and risk<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the emotional beat down you get when you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lose, she&#8217;s learning every single time<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and getting better and better which is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">now increasing her odds of future<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">success because she&#8217;s taking action,<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That&#8217;ll work in any other area of life<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">as well. The people who take action that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">learned that are willing to accept risk<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and not look at risks like something to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">avoid like a disease, but look at it like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it&#8217;s something to manage are always the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">one that end up with all the spoils.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> That&#8217;s right. To try me to take away that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m getting on top of that is that you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know it&#8217;s about choosing the highest<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">probability path to success and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">continuing to increase your odds at that.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hether that&#8217;s a real estate investment,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">whether that&#8217;s a stock investment or<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">whatever, right.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">he problem that a lot of folks have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">financially is they&#8217;re playing not to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lose with their money and they&#8217;re keeping<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it in you know a bank account, or in a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">very conservative portfolio allocation.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">heir probability in 30 years of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">having less wealth than if they had<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">invested it according to a very<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">disciplined decision-making process like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the one that we&#8217;re discussing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here and in Annie&#8217;s book is you&#8217;re going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be less wealthy over 30 years with a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">higher and higher statistical<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">probability the longer your time horizon<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">expands.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">It&#8217;s how do you apply<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this decision-making get better at that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">throughout the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">end the process. Then also the good<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">news about investing in business in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">general is that it&#8217;s not a zero-sum game<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like pokers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><br \/>\n<b>Scott:<\/b> You could actually increase<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your odds and produce wins in multiple<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">directions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Where your average outcome is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be a net positive one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> What<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you were saying about like, oh, the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">property manager was wrong and the rent<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is lower and so and so forth. That goes<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">back to what we were talking about in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the beginning with your path dependent.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat we&#8217;re not very good at coming up<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and taking a 10,000 foot view of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">how is this going to look over time. We get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really caught up in sort of what the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">trajectory in the moment is.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you can think about it like if you look<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at Berkshire Hathaway over 40 years it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">looks pretty darn good, right. It&#8217;s like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this nice<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">upward trajectory, but if you look at it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at like 11:30 on a Tuesday in like 2009,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it&#8217;s looking pretty bad. When you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">caught up in that, I&#8217;m only making a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hundred when I was making 300, it&#8217;s like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">but you&#8217;re making a $100. The<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">problem is that your path is negative<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and you get really caught up in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">emotion of that, but what does it look in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the long run? What does it look like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">overall? That&#8217;s where a group can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really help you do that. To pull you out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of kind of that hole that you&#8217;re in and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get a 10,000 foot view. That was the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">first thing I kind of wanted to grab on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The second thing is I think that the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">distinction is in that particular hand<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I described where that person<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">called me in a spot where I really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wasn&#8217;t expecting it, is that you have a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">choice there to say, &#8220;Wow! I can&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">believe I missed that. That was really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bad. Let me change my behavior going<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">forward,&#8221; versus what I hear most people<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">saying which is that guy is dumb. He<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">should have folded there because I made<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a great play and how did he not know it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">before.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hink about difference in those two<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">approaches.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You can&#8217;t be mad if someone&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">supposed to buy a house and they don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">or someone&#8217;s supposed to do this or the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">markets supposed to do that and it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">doesn&#8217;t do it. That&#8217;s on you to figure<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">out why that&#8217;s happening, right. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think that that&#8217;s the second thing that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I wanted to grab on to.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">third really big thing that I wanted to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">grab onto was this point that you said<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about humility. People ask me all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the time like, &#8220;Well, don&#8217;t you have to be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like super-duper confident to be a poker<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">player.&#8221; I said, &#8220;Well, it depends on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what you mean by confidence.&#8221; Because I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think that people really conflate, they<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">merge together the meaning of confidence<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and certainty. What they think is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that in order to come across as<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confident, you have to be certain. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have to say I know that it&#8217;s going to turn<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">out this way, and I&#8217;m awesome, and I&#8217;m so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">good at this game that I play. I&#8217;m so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">good at these investments that I make.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m so sure and I&#8217;m going to win<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">everything&#8230; you know and all those things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that we sort of put forth as being<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confident.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Confidence and certainty<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are actually two separate things. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">can be very, very confident and still be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertain. The uncertainty piece is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the humility piece. Here&#8217;s the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">humility piece is.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t&#8217;s really, really hard what we do when<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we invest when we&#8217;re trying to manage<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">risk. There are a lot of layers to it.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here&#8217;s a lot of stuff that we don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have control over. There is stuff that we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do have control over, but even when we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">make the best decisions,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we&#8217;re only hurdling ourselves to a set<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of possible outcomes. Not a certain<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcome. There&#8217;s always that 2% chance of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">an interception even when we make the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">best possible choices. We know that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this is a really hard game and generally<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we don&#8217;t know this will work out 70% of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the time. It&#8217;s something more like it&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to work out between 50 and 80%<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of the time, right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That&#8217;s more of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">world that we&#8217;re working in, but the more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that we can sort of narrow down that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertainty the better off we are. We<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know that it&#8217;s a really hard game and\u00a0it&#8217;s not solvable in any way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because the probabilities are always<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be unknown. Therefore, we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">must be humble in the face of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">problem that we&#8217;re facing. Because the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">problem is really hard, but that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">different than saying, I think if I have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really good process and I really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">approach this game in a way that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really rational. If I really wrap my arms<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">around the uncertainty and say, I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">acknowledge that I can&#8217;t be certain, but<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the better that I am between 50 and you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know saying it&#8217;s 50 to 80% versus<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">55 to 75% and I&#8217;m willing to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really view that with clear eyes, then<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m going to be a better decision maker<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">than the people I&#8217;m deciding against.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat&#8217;s where we make that separation.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I am completely humble in the face of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the uncertainty, but I also understand<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I can probably handle the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertainty better than most other<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people and I&#8217;m confident about that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I think that that&#8217;s a really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">important message for people to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">understand is don&#8217;t go around with your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">swagger, &#8220;Hey, I got this. I&#8217;ve got this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">solved. I know exactly what I&#8217;m doing.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m so great at this.&#8221; Because I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">otherwise, you can end up being someone<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">who is flipping houses in 2007, thinking<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you&#8217;re the world&#8217;s biggest genius.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here, maybe you are. Maybe you have a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really good process, but maybe it&#8217;s also<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just the market is so easy that of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">course you&#8217;re making money at it because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re just spending so much time<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">patting yourself on the back saying, &#8220;I&#8217;ve<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">got this. I&#8217;ve got this solved. I&#8217;m so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confident.&#8221; That you&#8217;re not actually<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">digging in to look at well what could<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the future be? What are the things that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are dependent on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my process here and my success? Why<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">am I winning? How much of this is due to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">specific decisions that I&#8217;m making<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">versus how much of this is due to the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">upward trend of the market itself so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I can start thinking well what if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the market starts going down. How am I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">protected against that? You miss all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that ability to plan ahead when you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confuse confidence with certainty, when<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you lose the humility piece.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><br \/>\n<b>Scott:<\/b> When I was reading this I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">also kind of read not just the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">overconfidence piece, but also the fear<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">piece. The fear of losing everything. Suppose I have $10,000 to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my name, that&#8217;s my whole net worth. If I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">go into a poker tournament\u00a0table and the buy in&#8217;s $10,000,\u00a0everything&#8217;s on the line. I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to play the game very differently<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">than if the buy in were $5,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. Where I can apply this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">line of thinking. I think that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">there&#8217;s also may be an entry price<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">depending on the stakes of the game<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re playing. How can you put yourself<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mentally in a position, so people can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">take their whole net worth all ten grand<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and play poker to win with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this process? Some people can&#8217;t. I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">how can you, the listener put yourself in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a position to play investing or any<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">other financial game so that you can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">apply this system and respect the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcome regardless of what it is and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really judge yourself based on your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision making process and not the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcome.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes, so I think one of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">best ways to do that is,\u00a0first of all you have to think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about what your own values are, right. Some people are looking to live<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a comfortable life and some people are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">looking to hit a homerun. Understand<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">which person you are and totally be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">comfortable with that. Because if I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just want to have a comfortable life<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">person, then I need to be comfortable in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my own values and not allow somebody<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">who&#8217;s a home run person for me to feel<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">judged by them. That this is supposed to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be what my values are. Likewise, if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m a home-run person, I shouldn&#8217;t be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">looking at a comfortable person and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think, maybe that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what I should be doing. Because think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about for yourself. What are your goals<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and what are your values, number one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Two,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think about what your own risk tolerance<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is? Like your risk tolerance when you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">65 it&#8217;s going to be really different than<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your risk tolerance when you&#8217;re 25. Then also, different 25 year olds\u00a0have different risk tolerances.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ike understand for yourself like how<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">much is the amount of risk that you feel<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like as a person you can tolerate. Try to think about that really clearly.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0G<\/span><span class=\"s1\">et those two things figured out,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">number one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then this is where I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think it&#8217;s this process is really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">helpful. Once you&#8217;ve sort of mapped<\/span><span class=\"s2\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">out the future and you say, here are the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">possible outcomes that can occur. Here<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are the good ones, here are the bad ones.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0F<\/span><span class=\"s1\">irst of all you can metabolize the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">emotions in advance. You can say, like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">okay, so I recognize when I make this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision that I could lose the hand.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat it could actually turn out poorly.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m thinking about that in advance<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so at the point that that happens I can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">somewhat shrug my shoulders and say, &#8220;Okay!&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0O<\/span><span class=\"s1\">n to the next decision. I understood<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that this couldn&#8217;t be. I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that that&#8217;s really important.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Secondly, it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">allows you to stop being so reactive as<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">things happen because you&#8217;ve<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thought about them in advance. You can be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">more nimble. You can say, and if this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happens here is my plan. If this bad<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcome occurs here&#8217;s what I&#8217;m going to do<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">next. If there&#8217;s good outcome occurs<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here&#8217;s what I&#8217;m going to do next. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sort of saw it about the different ways<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that it might happen and then what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re going to do is the next step after<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that so you&#8217;re not just always reacting<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to the world as it happens to you. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">become a real agent in your own<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decisions and in your own<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">trajectory. That&#8217;s number two.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I think here&#8217;s the really important<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thing is, once you&#8217;ve identified what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your goals are,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">let&#8217;s say that you have like a five-year<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">plan. Like in five years this is where I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to be. Then say, okay, imagine that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re holding up a newspaper and it&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">five years from now and it&#8217;s like Scott<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">has achieved his goal. Now work backwards<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">from that because this gives you the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">time. This makes you look at it in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">long run. It makes you look at it in more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the 40 year moment, instead of 11:30 on a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Tuesday. Okay, it&#8217;s five years from that,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0&#8220;O<\/span><span class=\"s1\">h, this is great! I made my goal.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0H<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ow did I get there? What are the things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that happened that got me there?&#8221;\u00a0That&#8217;s a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really good thing to do, but here&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">actually the more important thing to do.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t&#8217;s five years from now I did not get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to my goal. It did not happen. What do I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think happened to get me there? It&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hard for people to live in that negative<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">space. It&#8217;s hard for people to think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about having failed, but if you don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think about it in advance and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really map-out what those negative<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcomes might occur, what kinds of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">things might intervene?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0S<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ome of them luck and some of them<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decisions that you make that cause you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to actually not achieve your five-year<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">goal. Well, guess what? You&#8217;re more likely<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to actually end up in failure as opposed<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to success. Because what comes along with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">doing that advance work? Is it number one,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you recognize, well, there are some things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that are just going to be luck that I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">can&#8217;t do anything about, so if those<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">occur, I&#8217;m not going to do a lot of time<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">self-flagellating. I&#8217;m going to be able<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to move on because I&#8217;m going to actually<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have a plan in place.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The second<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thing that&#8217;s actually more important is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that then you can look at that kind of,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here&#8217;s how I got to failure, and you can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">say, &#8220;Okay,&#8221; so how can I decrease the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">probability of these things happening<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that might cause me to fail? How can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I increase the probability of\u00a0the chances of success? Because if you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t get a full view as full of view of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the future as you can and a full view of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the things that might intervene along<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the way, then you can actually change<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your decision-making to a\u00a0accommodate those occurrences.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Imagine for example, I mean again<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking about that seismic event that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">occurs when the crash happens. If someone<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">had said, &#8220;Okay, it&#8217;s five years from now<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and somehow all of my houses<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are underwater. How did I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get here?&#8221; Now you&#8217;re going to start<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">seeing some of the vulnerabilities and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what your positions might be in a way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you can actually put plans in place<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to protect yourself from them. Would you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be able to do it perfectly? Well,\u00a0I mean this was\u00a0a pretty unexpected thing that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happened, but you&#8217;re going to be able to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">foresee some of those things a little<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bit better. You&#8217;re going to start to figure<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">out, what are my plans, how can I change,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what my portfolio looks like to protect<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">against that volatility in some way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s going to be really helpful to make<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the volatility work for me.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if you don&#8217;t do that, if you&#8217;re not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">willing to say, &#8220;Okay, let me imagine all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the failures.&#8221; I don&#8217;t know how you get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Well, it&#8217;s a different way to look<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at the world, right. It&#8217;s the way that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">successful people look at it and that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">why there&#8217;s value in changing what comes<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">natural for you to doing it a better way.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Hal Elrod wrote the book\u00a0<i>The Miracle<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0M<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>orning<\/i>\u00a0and he&#8217;s been on the show before.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0H<\/span><span class=\"s1\">e was just speaking to a group I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">belong to and he was talking about how<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">pain we feel, emotional pain comes from<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">our resistance to accepting like what is.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>David:<\/b> Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">our girlfriend broke-up with you.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou&#8217;re feeling all this pain about it, it&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because you don&#8217;t want to accept she&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">gone, I need to move on. You clinging to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that is what results in pain and pains<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">experience we don&#8217;t like. What we tend to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do is think, &#8220;Well, I don&#8217;t ever want to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get a girlfriend again because this pain<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was horrible,&#8221; rather than think, &#8220;I need to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">let go of this. I need to accept this as<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">reality,&#8221; and the pain will go.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">He talks<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about when you&#8217;re late to work on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re stuck in traffic. We get in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this mode of, &#8220;Oooh!&#8221; We&#8217;re just frustrated<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right, but you can&#8217;t help your position<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">by being frustrated, right. You&#8217;d be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better off to just let it go and think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about how am I going to be extra productive<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">today to make up for it, or something<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">along those lines, right. I see as a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">real estate agent, I have some escrows<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that go super smooth and some that are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like pulling teeth with my clients. It&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">horrible. I&#8217;ve found it&#8217;s always the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people that are on&#8230; they do not accept<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that the world is an uncertain place.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t know if our offer will get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">accepted. I don&#8217;t know what the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">inspection reports will look like. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t know if the appraisal comes in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">though. They&#8217;re looking to me to find a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way to make this transaction go through<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">where they know exactly what&#8217;s going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happen because they&#8217;re not accepting<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that there&#8217;s uncertainty, right. They<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">end up miserable. They end up making<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">me miserable half the time, right. Because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I have to deal with them calling me at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">10:30 at night and wanting to vent about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">how they feel, rather than just accepting,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0&#8220;H<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ey, if your offer doesn&#8217;t get accepted I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wasted my time. You didn&#8217;t waste yours.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">et&#8217;s just write another one on another<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">house, right.&#8221; If you don&#8217;t want that,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">let&#8217;s write a little bit higher.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to do that. It&#8217;s that, I don&#8217;t want<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to let go of the way I want the world to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">work. If you can be that person that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">takes that leap of faith and just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">understands the world is an uncertain<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">place. You don&#8217;t know if you&#8217;re going to get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">cancer. You don&#8217;t know if you&#8217;re going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">meet the love of your life tomorrow. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t know if the love of your life is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to stay in love with you, right. Like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">all you can do is the best that you can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do in that situation and try to win more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">than you lose.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I find that wins open<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">up doors for more wins. Like, Annie<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you went on to be a very, very successful<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker player, one of the best in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">world. Now that you&#8217;re not playing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">poker you&#8217;re winning in these other<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">areas. You&#8217;re at amazing books, and you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a brilliant speaker, and you&#8217;re doing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">keynote speeches. Like, it was definitely<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in your best interest to be humble<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">enough to accept uncertainty and look<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">where it brought you. The people who<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t, are the ones who stay in that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">nine-to-five job, complaining all the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">time about how life sucks, complaining<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about their boss,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">complaining about the commute, but they<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">won&#8217;t let it go because they don&#8217;t know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what&#8217;s on the other side of that door<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and they need that certainty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> It&#8217;s so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">incredibly, beautifully said. You know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;d go back to that comment that you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just made about the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">person whose girlfriend breaks-up with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">them. Then it&#8217;s like, I&#8217;m not going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">try anymore. That when we&#8217;re so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">emotionally wrapped-up and worried about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what it&#8217;s going to feel like when things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t turn out well? The only natural<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">response to that is to make choices of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">one of two types. Either, I&#8217;m going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">minimize the chances that I lose or minimize the size of the loss that I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">can take. What does that mean? That you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be investing really small. Because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the only way we can protect against a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">big downside is to also make it so that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">there isn&#8217;t really any kind of big<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">upside either. It&#8217;s just the lower<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">volatility to try to stay around even so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re not taking the swings because the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">swings feel so horrible. That&#8217;s why<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">somebody will say, I&#8217;ve just never asked<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">anybody out on a date again, because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if I don&#8217;t ever ask anybody on a date<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">again I can&#8217;t have the pain of losing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that. I can&#8217;t lose.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The other way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to handle it is to make sure that there<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is consensus, that if it doesn&#8217;t work out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it wasn&#8217;t your fault,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. That&#8217;s also not good. Because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that means you&#8217;re going to be taking<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">conventional routes or you&#8217;re going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be hanging out with people who like to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">affirm for you that bad things aren&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your fault. I can&#8217;t believe that I lost<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this deal, &#8220;Yes that really sucks. That<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wasn&#8217;t your fault. Oh, yes that guy was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just an idiot for calling you there. Wow,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that was his fault not yours,&#8221; right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Or going\u00a0to Facebook and saying, &#8220;Why are all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">guys the same?&#8221; Then everybody wants<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to comment, &#8220;Yes, you poor thing. They&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">all jerks, right.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> What you need is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">someone to say, &#8220;Well, why did you do this?&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0R<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ight?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Why were the last ten people that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you dated jerk? Let&#8217;s think about how you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">might be choosing jerks? Because we can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">agree there are non-jerks out there. People don&#8217;t do that. They say, &#8220;Oh,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">yes, that&#8217;s really horrible. I can&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">believe the world&#8217;s happened to you in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that particular way.&#8221; That&#8217;s a culture<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">issue, right. Like if you&#8217;re hanging out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with people so you can do it either<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because you&#8217;re choosing consensus<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">choices so you&#8217;re never going for it on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">fourth down and you&#8217;re not pulling\u00a0the goalie. You&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">telling people, yes, you have to have 20%<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">down on your house exactly. You know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">whatever the conventional wisdom is and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re not kind of trying to figure out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what are the creative ways that we can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">change the structure of the decision<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that we&#8217;re making because you&#8217;re afraid<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of losing. That&#8217;s one way or just have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people tell you it&#8217;s not your fault all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the time. That would be the other way to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You know in the traffic thing I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">always ask people to do this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thought experiment which I think is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really telling for what you were talking<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about David. Which is, okay, so imagine<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you don&#8217;t have Waze, right. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t have like a nice app that tells<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you the best route to go. You&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to the movies with your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">spouse. One of you says,\u00a0let&#8217;s just go the way that we&#8217;ve always<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">gone and we have to get there at seven so we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know that we need to leave at like 6:15<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in order to get there at seven and let&#8217;s go.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou go the way that you always<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">go to the theater and like there&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really bad traffic for whatever reason<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like you know there&#8217;s a disabled car on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the side of the road or some something<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you know obviously was unexpected.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou&#8217;ve missed the movie because you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know you&#8217;re in a standstill on the route<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you normally go. I don&#8217;t think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">anybody in the car is yelling at each<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">other. I don&#8217;t think anybody is like, &#8220;Man,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I can&#8217;t believe you&#8217;re such an idiot. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">can&#8217;t believe we went this way to the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">movies.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Let&#8217;s say that you&#8217;re going<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to the movie and it&#8217;s a seven<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">o&#8217;clock start and you say, look\u00a0I think I have a better way to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">go. I was looking at this new route and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;ve got a shortcut. Now you take the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">shortcut and the same unexpected thing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happens. There&#8217;s like a disabled car on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the side of the road and there&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">horrible traffic and you miss the movie.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0D<\/span><span class=\"s1\">o you think you&#8217;re a happy couple? No!<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ike the person who chose the shortcuts<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">getting yelled out by the other person<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for their stupid shortcut. How could you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have chosen the stupid shortcut, but in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">either case there&#8217;s something that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happened on the route that was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">completely out of your control.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Notice that in the one case you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">pretty accepting and you&#8217;re like, &#8220;No,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t worry. It&#8217;s okay. We&#8217;ll just go do<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">something out so we&#8217;ll check it later<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">show.&#8221; Because it&#8217;s totally like this is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the route that you&#8217;ve always got, but boy<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if you try that new route you know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re going to get yelled at. Who wants<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to try a new route then? Rachel wants to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ask the next person out. You don&#8217;t ask<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the next person out because you&#8217;re so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">afraid of that feeling of losing and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">being blamed.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t&#8217;s such a horrible thing to have to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">carry around with you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You know you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">got to get good people around you, who<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">instead of helping you to feel better by<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">saying, &#8220;Oh yes, that wasn&#8217;t your fault.&#8221; Instead<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the way they help you feel<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better is saying, &#8220;Man, you really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">identified some stuff that you could<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">change. That is really hard to do. That&#8217;s great.&#8221; Like I&#8217;m going to engage with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you now because that&#8217;s really exciting<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to me. What&#8217;s better than having a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really amazing conversation with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">somebody who you respect. Whose approval<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you want. Who is intellectually like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">super exciting to talk to about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">something really deep which is like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">deconstructing your decisions so you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know you&#8217;re going to be better in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">future. That makes me feel a lot better<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">than just saying, thanks for telling me<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it wasn&#8217;t my fault.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> I mean like\u00a0again it&#8217;s the difference between a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">champion, a someone who takes charge<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">someone&#8217;s in control, and a victim, right. It&#8217;s a choice that you made. You made<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a choice in all those years ago when you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">join this group and began playing poker<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to play the game a different way and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">result in a very different outcome over<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">time that compounded in your advantage.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><i>T<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>oday&#8217;s show is brought to you by Stessa.<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0T<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>his is an essential and a really cool<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>tool every growing real estate investor<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>needs. Like we&#8217;ve been there, right.<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0O<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>verwhelm with a shoebox of receipts<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>that need to be recorded, juggling<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>multiple bank accounts and honestly<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>unsure of how much money were actually<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>making every month on our rentals. Look,<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>if you&#8217;re like me you&#8217;ve probably spent<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>a ton of time manually updating<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>spreadsheets to keep track of all that<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>income and expenses.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>You know I usually\u00a0know it was the only way to do it, unless<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>I wanted to pay for some expensive<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>bookkeeper, but Stessa let&#8217;s rules to<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>investors automate the busy work so we<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>can focus on growing our portfolios<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>ensuring tax time is a breeze and it<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>lets investors see all of our current<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>properties and key performance metrics<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>in one central dashboard.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>Look, I can&#8217;t<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>tell you how long I looked for a way to<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>do that and Stessa is exactly what I<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>needed. Take a few minutes today, add<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>your profiles, link your accounts and<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>everything updates in real time. Stessa<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>brings the institutional tools used by<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>the pros for the everyday investor for<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>free. It&#8217;s been featured in Forbes,<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>New York Times and The Wall Street<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>Journal. It was built by real estate<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>investors for real estate investors. To learn more and get started with a<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>free account, seriously do it, go to<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>Stessa.com\/bp. That&#8217;s Stessa.com\/bp.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>David:<\/b> W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">elcome to the segment of the show where<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we are going to dive deep into a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">specific aspect of real estate or<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">business with guest today, Annie Duke.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Annie is a master when it comes to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<i>T<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>hinking in Bets<\/i>\u00a0and that&#8217;s where we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to dive deep today.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> It was one of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the things I want to bring out before we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wrap-up here is the theme of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your book which is we&#8217;ve talked about a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lot of tactics, a lot of high-level<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision-making processes, but the simple<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">major takeaway that I got from the book<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was that the easiest way to apply all of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this and have the tactics going to flow<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">naturally is to simply think in terms of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bets. Can you explain that concept very<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">briefly and why that one thing is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">maybe the driver of all the rest of this?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>Annie:<\/b> H<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ere&#8217;s the thing, like I talked about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the fact that in any way that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">things turn out there&#8217;s uncertainty.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here&#8217;s uncertainty that comes from<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">information that we don&#8217;t know. There<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is uncertainty that comes from luck,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hose are the two forces of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertainty that make it so that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">whenever we make a decision there&#8217;s a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">larger number of possible outcomes than<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the one that will actually occur. A<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lot of the problem that we have in our<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">life is when we don&#8217;t allow the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertainty to bubble up to the surface.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hen we don&#8217;t acknowledge it. When we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t embrace it. When we go around<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">acting like we&#8217;re playing chess as if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">our decisions are so tightly connected<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to the way that things turn out, right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">What we want to do whenever we&#8217;re trying<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to decide what the best course of action<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is, is to make sure that we&#8217;re as deeply<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and honestly as we can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confronting the uncertainty. Because if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we don&#8217;t do that we&#8217;re going to make bad<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decisions. We&#8217;re going to tend to be very<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">overconfident in our decision about how<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we think that the future will unfold. We want to have as broader view of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">landscape that lies ahead with this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">clear eye to view of the uncertainty<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that might be in it as we&#8217;re trying to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decide what to do.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">How do we get there?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ell, let&#8217;s start with acknowledging that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">every single decision that we make is a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bet. People think about betting as<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like you know I go to the blackjack<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">table with my chips, or I go to the poker<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">table with my chips, or whatever and I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like put money on some gamble\u00a0that then it turns out into some sort of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">payoff. Once we realize well, what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">does that really mean? What it means is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I&#8217;m taking some sort of resource<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I have in this particular case it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">would be money. I&#8217;m investing it in an<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertain future. What I&#8217;m hoping is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I&#8217;m getting a positive return on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that future and the decisions that I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">making are driven by the beliefs that I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have, right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We can think about our<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">beliefs and form our decisions and our<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decisions are really bets because the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">future is uncertain. It&#8217;s whatever<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">resource you have it doesn&#8217;t have to be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">money that you&#8217;re investing, it could be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">time for example. That we invest our time<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and things all the time and we&#8217;re hoping<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to get some sort of positive return on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the time that we invest in something. We can think about all sorts of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">different ways that we invest. Once we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have that framework, what we can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">understand is here&#8217;s where the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertainty comes in. That the bets<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that we make, the decisions we make are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">only as good as the beliefs<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that we have and those are formed by<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">incomplete information. That&#8217;s the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">incomplete information piece. Then<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">once we make the decision there&#8217;s luck<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that can intervene in terms of the way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that the future occurs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><br \/>\nIn order to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">make a good decision we have to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">acknowledge those two things. That the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">beliefs that we have are not a 100%\u00a0correct. That they\u2019re going to be somewhere in between 0% and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">100% correct, right. Because they&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">always going to be informed by<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">incomplete information and our own bias<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in our own perspective on the world. We need to recognize that we can&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really know anything for 100% sure. Then we also need to recognize this luck<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">element.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">This is where the\u00a0<i>Thinking<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0in<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>\u00a0Bets<\/i>\u00a0piece comes in.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ell, once we know that decisions are bet,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if we start to more explicitly think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about them as bet, we start to embrace<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the uncertainty more. That actually<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">causes us to be very information hungry.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">et me try this out on you. Here&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a thing that I&#8217;ve heard a lot over the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">course of this summer, a ton. People<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">telling me the Democrats are going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">win the house in November, right. I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sure you guys have heard this a lot. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hear this from pundits on television and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we hear that all the time, okay. People<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">declare that as a known fact,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. The Democrats are going to win the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">house in November, but what if I were<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to say to one of those people, what if I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">said to you, do you want to bet on that?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat do you think that that would do?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ike how would that change their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">response back to me?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> I go from, &#8220;Oh, of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">course they&#8217;re going to win too. Hmmm&#8230; Let me<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get back to you after I do a little bit<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">more googling and research.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Right, right, but let me think about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this because, oh my gosh, November is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really actually quite far away. It&#8217;s 90<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">days away or so. You know so, it&#8217;s quite<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">far away and so there&#8217;s a lot of stuff<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I have no control over that&#8217;s going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">occur that could actually affect the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">outcome of that vote. I don&#8217;t know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what those things are that might occur<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I have no idea about in the next 90<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">days. Then also, there&#8217;s a whole bunch<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of information I don&#8217;t have.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Like maybe I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">should go look at how the districting<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">looks, right. Like if the country&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">overall leaning Democrat right now in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">terms of the house race. What&#8217;s it each<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">individual or house races look like.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0B<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ecause those obviously we know that the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">districts are drawn in a particular way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">or whatever.\u00a0I&#8217;m going to be researching polls.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Notice<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what this does. It bubbles up your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertainty. You go, &#8220;Wait! No, I didn&#8217;t mean<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I was 100% sure when I said that. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">meant, like I think it&#8217;s going to happen.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ike most of the time&#8230;,&#8221; so all of a sudden<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that idea&#8230; what is your level of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confidence? Like how sure are you, as<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">opposed to are you sure? Think about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the difference in those two things. &#8220;Are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you sure,&#8221; is asking for a definitive<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">whereas, &#8220;how sure are you&#8221; is asking<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for what level of certainty you have. When I say do you want to bet on it?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t causes you to go through all these,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like &#8220;how sure am I? Why might I be wrong?&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><br \/>\nL<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ook, if all anybody ever did, was stop<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">asking people, &#8220;why am I right&#8221; and instead<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">asked everybody around them &#8220;why am I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wrong?&#8221; You would be a lot better off if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s how you lived your life. Just take<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0&#8220;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">why am I right&#8221; out of your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">repertoire and just always ask people<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0&#8220;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">why am I wrong&#8221; and you&#8217;re going to get a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lot further because you already know why<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re right. You know why you believe,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what you believe. You know what those<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">beliefs are that inform those decisions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou want to start thinking about your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">beliefs is in progress. When you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think about one of that and that&#8217;s the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way that you frame it, it forces you to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think about your beliefs in progress. Then exactly what you just said Scott,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">which is now I want to go do some more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">googling. What does it do? When we think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about those two forms of uncertainty,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">there&#8217;s a luck element, well, it brings<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">back to like, &#8220;Oooh, 90 days is a long way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">away,&#8221; but then there&#8217;s also the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">incomplete information element and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s what Google does for you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">It makes<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you think, &#8220;Huh, maybe there&#8217;s stuff that I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t know. Maybe there&#8217;s information<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I should be go looking at that&#8217;s it&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to help me to calibrate and refine<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">these beliefs that I have, so let me pull<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">out my phone and start<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">googling to try to figure out if there&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">something that I&#8217;m missing.&#8221; Causes you to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be super information hungry. It caused<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you to think about things from the other<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">side, from people who might hold the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">different&#8230; Why does this person<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to bet me? Why did they think maybe,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that the Democrats aren&#8217;t going to win. Now<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it forces you to think about their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">perspective and start arguing the other<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">side. Those things are all so amazing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">If you can get yourself into<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that mindset, my decisions are bets and I&#8217;m going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think about them in an explicit way like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that, it&#8217;s going to cause the uncertainties<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">start bubbling up for you in a way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s going to make your beliefs so much<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better in form. You&#8217;re going to have such a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better perspective on the world. You&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be better able to acknowledge<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the luck element and you&#8217;re going to have a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">more accurate and clear-eyed view of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what the future might hold.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> I wish<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">everyone in the world thought the way<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you think. Like\u00a0the clarity of that, the simplicity of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just applying &#8220;wanna bet&#8221; to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">various the truths that you think that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you that you hold, beliefs that you have.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I mean, yes it just introduced it says,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0&#8220;H<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mm,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m only actually maybe 75% on this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">particular thing.&#8221; I mean you&#8217;re just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to get so much&#8230; I get higher<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">quality decision-making and just can be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a more reasonable person in general. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know I think half of my friends on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Facebook they&#8217;re posting things you know,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and I want to be like, &#8220;would you like to bet<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a $100 that this is true or<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">not?&#8221;\u00a0I bet you that half of the fake news<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the crap that&#8217;s going up disappears<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">overnight if people are getting<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">challenged to that kind of thing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Do you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know what would happen actually if you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">said about things that people posted you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know like articles that people share it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if you said do you want to bet that&#8217;s true.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I think most of the time you get the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">answer of, &#8220;Well, hold on a second I have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to read more than the headline then.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Yes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>Annie:<\/b> L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">et me read the actual article for a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">second here.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>Scott:<\/b> N<\/span><span class=\"s1\">o, I think everybody listening to this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">podcast should go out and apply this in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">their life. Do it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to yourself first because you know you don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to tick off all your friends or<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">whatever, but apply it in your life. Then maybe you know if you see someone<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">posting something that&#8217;s really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">questionable, you know, ask<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">them, &#8220;Would you like to bet on\u00a0this piece of information<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you&#8217;re sharing that&#8217;s probably not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">true.&#8221; I think it starts at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">interesting conversations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> You know I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">actually have a friend who&#8217;s tried this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">out with their kids a couple of times on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">low state decision. Obviously,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you don&#8217;t, you know their kids you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t want to challenge them for their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">allowance money all the time,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">but a very simple decision that he told<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">me about where his child really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">didn&#8217;t want to go to a movie that the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">family wanted to go to and was like, &#8220;No, I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t want to go. I&#8217;m going to hate it.&#8221; He said, &#8220;Well, do you want to bet on that?&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0A<\/span><span class=\"s1\">s soon as he said that, they were<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like, &#8220;Well, no, I mean I didn&#8217;t mean I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to hate it for sure. Well, I don&#8217;t know,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">maybe I&#8217;ll like it.&#8221; Because he said, &#8220;do you want to bet on that,&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">his child actually went to the movie and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">guess what, loved it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">What a great<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lesson for that child, right. Here&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">something that I was so sure about, I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">declaring with absolute certainty like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lying in the sand, I&#8217;m not going to go to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this stupid movie that you want to go to,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it&#8217;s going to be so dumb. Once he said,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0&#8220;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to bet,&#8221; it allowed them to sort of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">acknowledge, &#8220;Well, I don&#8217;t really know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because I haven&#8217;t seen the movie yet.&#8221;\u00a0I can&#8217;t know for sure that I&#8217;m going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hate it. Then when they when it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">actually turned out to be a great movie.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hink about the arc of what that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">does for their decision-making going<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">forward. Like I love that story.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">can train this thinking in very small<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way, but they&#8217;ll have really big impacts,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">these small ways that you actually<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">incorporate it into your life.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>David:<\/b> W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ell, in psychology we learned about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this it&#8217;s referred to as confirmation<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bias. You tend to long for people who<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">support what you already believe and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">when information comes across your path<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that refutes what you believe, it makes<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you uncomfortable. You experience<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">cognitive dissonance and you push it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">aside, &#8220;I don&#8217;t like that,&#8221; right. We see<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this in politics like all the time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Our<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">current president is pretty<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">controversial. People usually love them<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">or hate them. If you&#8217;re on one side<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of that spectrum and information comes<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">across that would challenge it, you block<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that person on Facebook, or you unfriend<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">them, or you don&#8217;t want to see it because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it makes you feel uncomfortable, but the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">real winners in life are willing to like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bring that in. Cause it to challenge what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they&#8217;re thinking. Maybe it strengthens<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your own beliefs because you now have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confidence that, &#8220;No, I believe it wasn&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. No, I have proof that I know I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right,&#8221; or maybe it changes your belief,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">but you come out of stronger person.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat&#8217;s what you had to do in poker. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">need to get good at it. Because you had<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people like you said, a huge thing was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the people I surrounded myself would not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">let me do that, right. That&#8217;s just a huge<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">proponent for that whole\u00a0the average of the five people<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you surround yourself with. Your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">acknowledging, I wasn&#8217;t even that humble,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">but I will ran around with a group\u00a0that forced me to be that humble, or they<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">were going to beat me down. I could<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">either accept it willingly, or I can have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">them tell me how wrong I was over and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">over so I wanted to cry and then I would<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get there, right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that environment you put yourself in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">fostered a spirit of humility, which<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">fostered a spirit of challenging what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you thought was right.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou didn&#8217;t let yourself off the hook<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">by saying, &#8220;he got lucky,&#8221; or &#8220;yes, well, that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">won&#8217;t happen next time,&#8221; or something. You had to look introspectively and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if people did that in real estate<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the average American would not need<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Social Security, they would not need to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be dependent on the government for their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">retirement, they wouldn&#8217;t be miserable<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">working at a job complaining all the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We wouldn&#8217;t have to read on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Instagram all these people complaining<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about the world. If they looked at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">themselves and say, &#8220;I made this decision<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that ended up in something I don&#8217;t like.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I need to look at why I made that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision and understand it.&#8221; I think that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like the world be in a better place.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">As you&#8217;re talking I&#8217;m like, &#8220;Man, what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">would my life be like if I just hung out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with a Annie all the time,&#8221; right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> I just want to say one thing though just to sort of like correct<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the record a little bit. I just want to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">tell you guys like, I&#8217;m horrible at this.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I really am. Like it&#8217;s so hard when you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have bad things happen not to just be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like, &#8220;That wasn&#8217;t my fault,&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and it&#8217;s our natural instinct. Like the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">reason why I needed other people around<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">me is because on our own we&#8217;re all<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really bad at it, but one of the things I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think is really important sort of in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">self-compassion space is to recognize<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that even if I know what perfect<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision-making looks like, that I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to fall incredibly short of that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That&#8217;s okay because I&#8217;m not in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">competition with perfect. I&#8217;m in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">competition with the past version of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">myself, who was I yesterday, or the day<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">before that, or the day before that. Let&#8217;s say that Annie, when I started<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">playing poker was seeing five out of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">every a hundred times that you could<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">learn. I was actually catching five of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the learning opportunities out of every<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hundred that came my way because I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so biased and because I want to be like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that guy&#8217;s an idiot and it was his fault<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and all of that stuff like we all do.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then as I started to work through it and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">worked with this group, now maybe, I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was actually catching ten of those<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">learning opportunities. Maybe for a few<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">reasons one is they trained me in a new<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way to think. When I was playing poker I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was looking for cool questions that I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">could then go talk to them about because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that intellectual engagement was so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">important to me. I was actually<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">viewing the game differently while I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">watching it, so I was looking for<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">questions which helped me to catch more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">things. Maybe also, there<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a bunch of times where I was like, &#8220;Oh,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that guy was just an idiot and that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wasn&#8217;t my fault,&#8221; but when I went and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">tried to talk to the group about that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they helped me catch it much quicker, so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">an opportunity that might have passed<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and never gone noticed actually gets<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">noticed with the help of the group.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Now maybe I improve instead of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">connecting five, I kept ten out of every<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">100. Well, I&#8217;m crushing the old version of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">me. Look at the progress that I&#8217;ve made<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in terms of the quality of my decisions.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou could look at that two ways. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">guess I could compare myself to perfect<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and say, &#8220;Wow! I&#8217;m only catching 10% out of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the 100 that I could catch. I&#8217;m such<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a failure, or I can say, &#8220;No, I actually<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have doubled the number of learning<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">opportunities that come my way from the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">old version of me.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That&#8217;s what I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">should really care about is, am I doing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better? Am I catching more of my mistakes?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0A<\/span><span class=\"s1\">m I training my thinking to be more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">focused on accuracy as opposed to just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wanting to not be wrong, right. Am I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking more through the lens of asking<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people, &#8220;why am I wrong? Acknowledging<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the uncertainty. Trying to be humble in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the face of a game in a way that really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">helps me.&#8221; If the answer is, &#8220;yes, it&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">okay that I&#8217;m so far from perfect.&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0B<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ecause of course none of us can ever be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">perfect. We&#8217;re all really biased. It&#8217;s the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">minds that we were born with. We can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">only have the experiences that we&#8217;ve had.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">he world interacts with me in a really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">different way than the world interacts<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with you guys. You know, it interacts with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you in a different way\u00a0David than it interacts with Scott,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0t<\/span><span class=\"s1\">han it interacts with everybody else.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We all live in our own heads. We all have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">our own perspectives. We all think that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the world works a particular way because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s the way that we happen to have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">interacted with it. If we don&#8217;t draw<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in different perspectives and get better<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at that, and we can only do that by<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">saying, &#8220;why am I wrong? What do you know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I don&#8217;t know? What&#8217;s the information<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I&#8217;m not uncovering? What&#8217;s the\u00a0perspective that I&#8217;m not seeing?&#8221; We&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">not going to improve. It&#8217;s about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">improving, it&#8217;s not about being perfect.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0B<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ecause perfect is completely like it\u2019s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">an unattainable goal. You&#8217;re going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">view yourself as a failure if that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what you compare yourself to.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><br \/>\nIt&#8217;s so<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">clear, I&#8217;m really bad at it. That&#8217;s the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">takeaway. It&#8217;s like I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">very bad at this stuff. I&#8217;m just better<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">than I used to be.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> That&#8217;s what all of this is. All of mastery<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">seems just be like getting less bad.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0A<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ccumulate this experience over the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">course of years with a rigorous process<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">by your decision-making and learning and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">then the results slowly, slowly begin to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">stack compound until you find yourself<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">World Series of Poker champion, or a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">multimillionaire a real estate investor,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">or a successful entrepreneur, or whatever<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it is that you&#8217;re going for. By an<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">application this process you increase<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your odds of achieving this.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b>\u00a0I think here&#8217;s one<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of the takeaways as you&#8217;re talking about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like this is what we&#8217;re trying to do in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">business, right. It&#8217;s just be a little bit<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better be less bad. I think that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">when you think that the goal is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">perfection, then I think two things can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happen. One is that you see that you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so far from perfect that you just give<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">up, or you start thinking that you are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">perfect. If we don&#8217;t have this view<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that all we&#8217;re trying to do is do you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like be less bad, what is that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mindset of thinking about it is &#8220;I want<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to be less bad,&#8221; forces you to view your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">beliefs as in progress.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><br \/>\nWhat comes<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with viewing your beliefs in progress?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou aren&#8217;t rigid in your thinking. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t become dogmatic. You don&#8217;t become<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">an ideologue.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0B<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ecause you&#8217;re forcing yourself to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be view your beliefs in progress. You<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">become open-minded to all sorts of new<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ideas, and new innovations, and new ways<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to think about it, and the ways that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">other people might think. Even if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they disagree with you 90%, you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">looking for that 10% that they can teach<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you. What&#8217;s the 10% that they can teach<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you? It makes you be so open to that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because the whole point is to try to get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your beliefs to a slightly better place<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for them to be less bad.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Once we say<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like, &#8220;Oh, I&#8217;m perfect. I&#8217;ve got this down. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know what I&#8217;m doing.&#8221; Boom! What happens?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou close. That&#8217;s it. You&#8217;re not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to notice for example, look, you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">might be totally right in your strategy<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for the strategy that you were applying<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in 2009, but when the world changes<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">around you, your strategy better change<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">as well. You better be flexible to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">noticing when markets are changing.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">f you think you&#8217;ve just got it down<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and you&#8217;re perfect, you&#8217;re not going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be open-minded to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> I dare anyone to put that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">into practice and not double their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">success at least in their life. Just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">taking that mindset into whatever<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they&#8217;re doing that&#8217;s so good. All right,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">well, we need to move on to the next<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">segment of the show called the &#8220;fire<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">round.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>It&#8217;s time for the &#8220;fire round!&#8221;<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><br \/>\n<i>You<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>know what is a lot of fun?<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0F<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>inancial freedom through real estate<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>investing. You know what&#8217;s not a lot of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>fun? The bookkeeping and the accounting<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>that goes with it.<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0L<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>uckily, our friends over at FreshBooks<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>made ridiculously easy cloud accounting<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>software for small business owners just<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>like us. That means landlords and<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>property managers, or anybody who&#8217;s<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>self-employed; you can link your<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0F<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>reshBooks account to your credit or<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>debit cards, so next time you expense<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>that business lunch or that tank of gas,<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>it&#8217;s going to show up automatically in your<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>FreshBooks account.\u00a0You can even take<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>pictures of receipts on your phone and<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>upload them using their FreshBooks<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>mobile app. It&#8217;s pretty awesome.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>Also,<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>they&#8217;ve got amazing customer service,<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>super friendly zero attitude, a real live<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>person usually answers in three rings or<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>less. Very, very cool finding it when tax<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>time does roll around. Just click on<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>reports to get tidy summaries of all of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>your expense reports, any invoices, sales<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>tech summaries and a lot more. So claim<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>your 30-day unrestricted free trial, no<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>credit card required. Go to Freshbooks<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>.<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>com\/biggerpockets and<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>enter BiggerPockets in the how did you<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>hear about us.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> This is the segment where we take<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">questions right out of the Bigger<\/span><span class=\"s2\">P<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ockets forums and we ask our guests. Now<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I know you&#8217;re not necessarily the real<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">estate investor Annie, but I think you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just probably one of the smartest human<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">beings I&#8217;ve ever met. I have full<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confidence you can be able to handle<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">some of these.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Okay.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> The first question is, how<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do I overcome the fear of getting<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">started investing?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Think about what it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">means if you don&#8217;t invest. I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that that&#8217;s actually the real key, is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you have to understand that not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">investing is a decision, just as<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">investing is a decision. Then the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">second piece is, as you&#8217;re trying to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decide between different investments,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">start to embrace the uncertainty and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">recognize that one of the things that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we&#8217;re trying I think that we have an<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">unrealistic view of is that when we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">invest we want to guarantee that it will<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">work that well. Otherwise, it&#8217;s really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">scary, but once we recognize that there&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">nothing that we can guarantee, we can&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ever get something to a 100%<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and just embrace the fact that you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">trying to get to the best decision that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you possibly can.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then, once you&#8217;ve gotten<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to a reasonable place where you feel<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like, okay, it&#8217;s like I think this is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a060%<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0that it&#8217;s going to work out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better than all the other options that I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">have available to me. You can ask<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">yourself a very simple question once you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get to that point where you&#8217;re leaning<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">toward a particular decision. Which is in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the timeframe that I have to make this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision, is there some piece of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">information that I could reasonably<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncover in that time. That would really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">change the probabilities that I have. I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a060%<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0to do it, 40%\u00a0not to do it. Is there a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">piece of information I could find in the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">time that I have to decide which would<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">all of a sudden make the not doing it go<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">up to higher than you know the doing it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">f the answer is, yes there is a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">piece of information that I could find<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in that time. Go find it. If the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">answer is, no I can&#8217;t find that in that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">time or there&#8217;s nothing that I could<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really know that would change my mind<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here. Go ahead and make it and be okay<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with the fact that you&#8217;re only 60%.\u00a0Because that&#8217;s pretty good in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">life. Like we can&#8217;t be certain about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">anything, so just get used to it and stop<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">holding yourself up to this standard of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">needing to know for sure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>Scott:<\/b> O<\/span><span class=\"s1\">kay, so the second question here is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">related to this first one. I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that fear of be getting into investing,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. Now, without having them listen to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">this podcast, how do I convince my spouse<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to get into real estate investing here?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">o go along with the suggestion that I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just made, &#8220;Hey, we got a 60% probability<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to do this.&#8221; How do I\u00a0convince my spouse that&#8217;s not too risky?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>Annie:<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I think with the spouse, I think what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">would be really important is to sit down<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and say, what are our goals? Where do we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to get to in terms of what our<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">financial situation is in the future?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0R<\/span><span class=\"s1\">eally sit down and identify what those<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">goals are. Then start working<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">backwards. Well, how do we think we got<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here? One of the things that I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">pretty sure about, I mean it depends on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what your goals are, right. Is that having\u00a0the money sit in like a CD or a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">bank account it&#8217;s probably not going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get most people to the financial<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">situation that is ideal for them,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you know within reason, right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">For some<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">probably true. For some people like, &#8220;Look,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m happy if I just make my like 1% or<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">whatever, or my 2%.&#8221; For most<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people I think when you sit down and you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really lay out what are the goals, I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">would actually do the back half than the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">pre-mortem. Like I don&#8217;t care how do<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we not get here. Then let&#8217;s look at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">how much risk we&#8217;re willing to take on<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in order to move ourselves to that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">trajectory.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Because I think that when you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really imagined all the different<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">futures, I think it really helps you get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">there. I would say\u00a0that would be what I would really do is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sit down and make them a partner in this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">kind of thinking with you and say, look&#8230;\u00a0and I would actually make it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so that you&#8217;re sort of part of a special<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">tribe. I would say most couples don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sit down and do this. Most people aren&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sitting down and saying, &#8220;Where do we want<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to be in three years? Where do we want to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be in five years? Where do we want to be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in 10 years?&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0M<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ost people are sort of mushing around<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and making decisions in the moment<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">without actually thinking about what the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">long-term impact of these the decisions<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are. Which is actually true by the way.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">he research shows this very strongly<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that people aren&#8217;t thinking like, what is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my 30, or 40, or 50, or 60 year old self<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">look like under these circumstances? What<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do I want for them? We&#8217;re going to be the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">special couple like, we&#8217;re going to do<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">something really hard and really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">important and we&#8217;re actually going to look<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at where do we want to be in three years,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">five years, 10 years, 20 years? Let&#8217;s look<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at what that is and let&#8217;s work backwards<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">from there about how we got there?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then let&#8217;s also really examine the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">disaster. Like let&#8217;s say it really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">doesn&#8217;t work out. &#8220;Okay, what&#8217;s our plan?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here is it? Is it really that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">devastating?&#8221; How big<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a chance are we willing to take that we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lose this money and really work all of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that out in advance and make that part<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of your process as a couple. I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that that really helps people sort of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">become partners with you in it, as<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">opposed to you trying to convince them.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t&#8217;s more, this is what you do as a team.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>Scott:<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I think it&#8217;s a great answer. I think that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ike it&#8217;s again application of your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">philosophy across a broad spectrum of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">life and business and game I guess of poker.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> I hope so.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> What are going to say David?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>David:<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I was just going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">say I like that more than, &#8220;I&#8217;m right,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re wrong and let me just be into<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your head until you agree with my side.&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou&#8217;re bringing them along and you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">opening up their mind to, well, most<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people don&#8217;t do this. Why don&#8217;t we<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">separate ourselves from the pack and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0make it<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0an intentional focused game plan to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get us where we want to be. It opens<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">up someone else&#8217;s mind and they stop<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking about risk and they start<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking about strategy. Which is fun,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. We like to talk about that type of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">stuff as opposed to scary.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes! You start thinking about like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what is your downside risk tolerance,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">right. Like, okay what really what is our<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">downside risk tolerance? Like I mean if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you think about it like, you just got out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of college, you&#8217;re 22, you saved up<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0$5,000<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0and you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">want to invest it. Is it really a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">disaster if you lose it? I mean the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">answer is probably no. Like you can go<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and save up another 5,000, right.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou can think about like, what&#8217;s the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">reward that I need in order to take this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">downside risk? Like how often am I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">willing to lose this nest egg that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;ve built up at 22 or 23 years old? I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be willing to do that. That&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to be a really different answer than<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if you&#8217;re 75, and you&#8217;re taking on that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">kind of risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">To really sit down and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think about, well let&#8217;s think about the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">worst case scenario what does that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really look like. Let&#8217;s think about the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">best case scenario what does that really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">look good, but I agree if you start<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">saying, I&#8217;m right, you&#8217;re wrong I&#8217;m\u00a0the decision-maker here and I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">making the decision. You are just opening<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">yourself up for resulting. Because if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that doesn&#8217;t work out, it&#8217;s just going to be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a ton of &#8220;I told you so, and I knew it and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you shouldn&#8217;t have done this,&#8221; because you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">haven&#8217;t brought them into the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">partnership with you on the on the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">planning. That&#8217;s the best way to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">create long-term health in terms of not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">having to repeat this problem. Otherwise, you&#8217;re going to have to repeat it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">every single time and it&#8217;s just going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">cause discord anyway.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> That is fantastic<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and a great segue into our next segment<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">which is going to be the &#8220;famous four.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>&#8220;Famous Four&#8221;<\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Okay! Annie, can you tell me what is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your favorite real estate book?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>Annie:<\/b> M<\/span><span class=\"s1\">y favorite real-estate book&#8230; No! Because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I haven&#8217;t&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> I knew you&#8217;re going to say that. Frankly\u00a0thinks about any book that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">has the word real estate of the title<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I could throw out there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes, yes,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so but I think that for anybody who&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">doing investing, I think that one of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">best books out there right now is\u00a0<i>The<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0G<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>eometry of Wealth.<\/i>\u00a0Which is by Brian<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Portnoy and it&#8217;s really thinking about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">how do you plan? What are your values? How<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">do you think about what the decisions<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">are in terms of your own wealth building?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat would be the book that I would<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really recommend in them in their sort<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of building wealth space.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Okay, and the next question is what&#8217;s your favorite<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">business book, but I&#8217;ll give you an<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">option here. You can you either do a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">business book, since we talked about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<i>G<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>eometry of Wealth<\/i>\u00a0or<i>\u00a0<\/i>poker book<i>?<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Well, my<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">favorite poker book is\u00a0<i>Decide to Play<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0G<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>reat Poker,<\/i>\u00a0but I wrote that so that&#8217;s why. That&#8217;s not fair\u2026<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">book, but one of the things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I think is really important when<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re thinking about business books is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to sort of get outside the box. Start<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking about in general, how do I build<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">my own culture for myself around<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">business? Like\u00a0<i>Superforecasting<\/i>\u00a0by<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Phil Tetlock which thinks about\u00a0how do we become good predictors in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertain systems, right? I think that&#8217;s a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really important book. You have things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like extreme ownership, right. Which is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like, how do we really own the things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that happen and own our own decisions,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">radical candor? You know which I think is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really about like this honest exchange<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">within your group. How do we be<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">honest with each other about what we&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">seeing in each other, instead of this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sort of like, &#8220;Yes, man, that really sucked,&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">even though I don&#8217;t believe it, right.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ike how do we get to that place?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then obviously you&#8217;ve got like\u00a0<i>Thinking,<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>Fast and Slow<\/i>\u00a0for example, which is just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">generally about like decision-making and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">sort of where does this decision-making<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">go wrong and that kind of thing.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou can even get into something<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a little bit deeper like\u00a0<i>The Signal and<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>the Noise<\/i>\u00a0which is Nate Silver which is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really about making decisions under<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I think it&#8217;s really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">important when people are thinking about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">business decisions and business books to just\u00a0get out of the box. Stop thinking<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about specifically like, what am I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">reading about? What other people have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">done in real estate, but in general,\u00a0how am I thinking about my own<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision-making process? How do I own my<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">own decision<\/span><span class=\"s2\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">making process? How do I interact with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">other people in order to become a better<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision-maker. Because at the basis of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">every business decision is the word<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision. I love thinking more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">broadly about decision-making and then<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">figuring out how that to apply to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">yourself. I think that helps you be more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">innovative of your own thinking as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> A<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lot of what our conversation earlier was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">talking about made me think of extreme<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ownership. That mindset you&#8217;re developing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is, everything is my fault, how can I look<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at what just happened and improve myself?<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat I find is that when we adopt<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that mindset, we get better all the time.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hereas, when you blame things on other<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people, you lose the opportunity to get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">any better yourself.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> The next<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">question here Annie is can you tell us<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about some of your hobbies?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes! Sure!<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m an avid tennis player, I love<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">playing games. Some are a big words with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">friends&#8217; player, which I totally love. I am<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really into you know like certain shows<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to binge watch like which I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just love things like\u00a0<i>The Night Watchman,<\/i>\u00a0it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">was so good, you know. I was a big like<\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>Breaking Bad<\/i>\u00a0fan. I&#8217;m always<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">looking for really good entertainment to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">read. Then you know I had four kids,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so I would say a lot of my hobbies just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to categories of just hanging<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">out with them. I&#8217;m very lucky because I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really, really, really like my kids. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really, really like who they are and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hanging out with them. It all goes<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">into like tennis, yoga, solid<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">core spinning, lots of hobbies like that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>Scott:<\/b> L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ast question here of the &#8220;Famous<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Four&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0is what sets apart successful<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">investors or people in general from<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">those who give up, fail, or never get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">started?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes, I think it all comes down<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to how much you&#8217;re willing to embrace<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertainty and really be okay with the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">fact that sometimes things don&#8217;t work<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">out. That doesn&#8217;t mean you&#8217;re wrong.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0I<\/span><span class=\"s1\">t doesn&#8217;t mean you&#8217;re a bad decision<\/span><span class=\"s2\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">maker. By the way, sometimes it does and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s okay.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat there is no way that we can control<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the outcomes of our lives. We cannot do<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it. The future is by definition uncertain.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0A<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ccept that. Stop with the illusion<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that you can control your outcome. Stop<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with the illusion that you think you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">supposed to be certain about it. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think that this is a place where people<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t realize that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">other people around them can actually<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">create a really toxic environment in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ways that they don&#8217;t notice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">When you&#8217;re<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">around people who are like, &#8220;Yes, I&#8217;m sure.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I knew it was going to work out that way.&#8221;<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ike you know, expressing that they are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so certain about things. That you think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that that&#8217;s actually a thing that you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">can actually do. Of course. Then when you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get into your own head and you realize<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">what all your doubts are and that you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">don&#8217;t really know. It&#8217;s going to be hard<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to ever pull the trigger.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Not only that,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re not going to be particularly<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">open-minded. You&#8217;re not going to be\u2026 You&#8217;re not going to be willing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to listen to people who disagree with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you. You&#8217;re going to be close-minded to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">those opinions.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou&#8217;re not going to approach the world<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wondering why you&#8217;re wrong as opposed to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">wondering why you&#8217;re right. That&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to have a terrible effect on your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision-making in the long run.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to take an open-minded approach to the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">world. An open-minded approach<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">requires that you know that you yourself<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">aren&#8217;t certain about the things that you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">believe. That you operate as if you are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in terms of decisions, but you certainly<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">aren&#8217;t certain and you&#8217;re trying to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">learn. That you can&#8217;t ever be certain<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about the way that the future turns out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because there&#8217;s always a 2% chance of an<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">interception. What are you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">going to do about it? You don&#8217;t have any<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">control over that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I think that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">really what sets people apart honestly.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I hear people say all the time like,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">no it&#8217;s like I&#8217;m such a confident<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision-maker and that&#8217;s what sets me<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">apart. Again I think that they&#8217;re conflating confidence with<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">certainty, right. I think it&#8217;s, no\u00a0I&#8217;m a really uncertain decision-maker. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think that that&#8217;s what sets me apart.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think that I&#8217;ve always looked at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confidence as the way you carry yourself<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in the face of uncertainty. Like the more<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confidence I have, the more I&#8217;m willing<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to walk into situations that I don&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">know what to expect. Which you kind of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">develop as a police officer, right.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0B<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ecause I never ever know what I&#8217;m going to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get when I get on scene. The call starts<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">off with someone says they have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">abdominal pain. I think it&#8217;s a medical<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">call. I get there and the guys running<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">around with a knife stabbing people in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the abdomen you&#8217;re like, &#8220;Oh, this is not a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">medical call, right.&#8221; The cops who<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">freeze and don&#8217;t know what to do are not<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">okay living in that world of uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\">T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">o me confidence like the measure of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">it is how well that person operates in a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">world of uncertainty because they trust<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">themselves and their decision making in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">their ability to analyze their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">environment in the situation. I love<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">they&#8217;re not opposites. Like you&#8217;re either<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">confident or you&#8217;re certain. Like you can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">never have certainty so confidence is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">being willing to operate in a world of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">uncertainty and trust yourself.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> I&#8217;m going to steal that with permission if<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I can. You just put that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so much better than I ever have and now<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m like totally jealous of that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">phrasing. With your permission I&#8217;d<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">like to adopt it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Is confidence in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">your decision-making process? That&#8217;s what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you have confidence in?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Yes, exactly,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">exactly!<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I totally have confidence in my<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">decision-making process. I also know<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I&#8217;m really bad at it. That I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">can&#8217;t control the future, but I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that that&#8217;s what gets you there. Because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if you acknowledge that you&#8217;re not good<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at something, what do you do? You start<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">practicing. You start trying to get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">better and figuring out what you can do<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to improve the process.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Awesome. Well, last<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">question here before we get out of here.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">here can people find out more about you?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>Annie:<\/b> T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hank you for asking that question. First of all, obviously, you can get my<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">book and that&#8217;s available at bookstores<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">online and in real life,\u00a0<i>Thinking in<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0Bet<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>s: How to Make Smarter Decisions<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i>\u00a0W<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>hen You Don&#8217;t Have All the Facts.<\/i>\u00a0I&#8217;m<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">very active on Twitter, you can follow me<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">@AnnieDuke and then also, hopefully<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">people will check out my website AnnieDuke.com,\u00a0you can contact me there. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">actually really love hearing from<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">listeners and readers. I actually respond<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to every inquiry if I can. I don&#8217;t think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I miss any, I try not to, but I get some<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">greet, just even if it&#8217;s just, &#8220;Hey, there&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">a really cool article.&#8221; Like you know I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">love getting stuff like that. Really cool<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">questions, things that people are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking about because of the content<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I&#8217;m kind of putting out there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then also obviously if you want to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hire me you can also go there and find<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that as well. Then the last thing is<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that I actually put out a weekly<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">newsletter. It&#8217;s been on a, &#8220;Hey, it&#8217;s just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">at the end of the summer here,&#8221; because<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">I&#8217;m on vacation, but I put out a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">weekly newsletter. If you go to Annie<\/span><span class=\"s2\">Duke.com\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you can find archives of the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">newsletter there, so that you can read it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">before you buy it so to speak. Then<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hopefully you&#8217;ll subscribe to that. What I do what you&#8217;ll see if you look at<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the archives is I try to take things<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that are happening in current events, and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the business world, and science, and<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">politics and apply the type of<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thinking that we&#8217;ve been talking about<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">today to sort of things that are<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">happening that are currently sort of out<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">in the world in that day.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Annie, did you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">mention if you&#8217;re on Instagram?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><br \/>\n<b>Annie:<\/b> Y<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ou know what, I&#8217;m on a couple of places.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">he place where I&#8217;m personally really<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">active is on Twitter, so if you want to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">interact with me authentically the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">authentic place to find me is on Twitter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>David:<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Annie Duke, that is awesome. If you want<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to follow Scott or I, he&#8217;s on Instagram<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">as Scott_ Trench and I am<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">DavidGreen24. Please hit us up and let<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you know what you thought about this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">episode. What insights you had. I mean<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">there&#8217;s probably more than we could ever<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">talk about. This was like one of the best<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">conversations I&#8217;ve ever had for the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">human being in my life. That was awesome<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and I know Scott&#8217;s over there like<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">totally fanboying over you. I read your book<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">because Scott wouldn&#8217;t stop talking<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about it. He gave it to me like secondhand.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0L<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ike this book is so good that this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">other guy won&#8217;t stop talking about it.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Brandon tells me about it he hadn&#8217;t even<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">read it yet, so you did a great job.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> Thank<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you. Thank you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Yes, thank you very much<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">for coming on. This was awesome. It&#8217;s one<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of our longer shows so.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Well, thank you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">very much Annie for being on the show. I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">had a blast. I hope that we can stay in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">touch and I hope that our listeners, I&#8217;ll<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">get a hold of you and start talking to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you about how to have the right mindset<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to overcome some of the fear<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">apprehension and uncertainty that comes<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">with any business endeavor. With that<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">being said Scott you have anything else<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">add?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> No, thank you very much.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> All right, awesome<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thank you guys.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Thanks Annie. Have a great<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Annie:<\/b> All right. A<\/span><span class=\"s3\">wesome.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> All right that was Annie<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Duke, author of\u00a0<i>Thinking in Bets<\/i>, World<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Series of Poker champion and just<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">brilliant mind and logical thinker<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">extraordinaire.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0W<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hat do you think of the show David?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> That was an awesome treat. I mean I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">almost feel like I should have paid<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Annie for the time that I just got to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">spend listening to her talk because that was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">so good.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Yes, like I mentioned the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">beginning of the show this logic<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">that&#8217;s so clear in her interview here<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is broken down in a really digestible<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">way in her book which again is one of my<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">favorites and honestly the one that I<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">recommend most today since I read it<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">maybe four or five months ago. I was<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">delighted to have an opportunity to talk<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">to her in person today and just hear her<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">thought process in person. I think<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">we&#8217;re all better off for having done so.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s2\"><b>David:<\/b> Yes,<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0absolutely. If you feel like this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">episode was good and helping you. If you<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">just feel like a weight off your chest<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">and you kind of see there&#8217;s light at the<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">end of the tunnel and I know what to do.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0P<\/span><span class=\"s1\">lease share this with somebody else who<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you know because you&#8217;re not the only<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">person that struggles with uncertainty,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">not knowing what steps you should take<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">if you&#8217;re fool for taking them. A lot<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">of people need to hear this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">formation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Think about who in your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">life would really be benefited by<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hearing this kind of a conversation.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0S<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hare the show with them. Reach out to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Scott and I, let us know what you thought<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about it? How this changed your life? If<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you liked it. I know we didn&#8217;t talk a ton<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">about real estate, but man this is almost<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">more important than hearing another<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">investor talk about what they did<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hearing someone explain how you can get<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">over what your own personal unique<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">hurdles are, is so invaluable, I mean this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is oftentimes like what like life<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">coaches or business coaches do in their<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">conversations with their clients.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Yes,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">absolutely. The<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">philosophy is applicable to every<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">discipline in life that I can<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">think of it. You have a logical mind,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re willing to work on it, then this<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">philosophy will make you unstoppable<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">over time. The odds just continue to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">stack in your favor as you rigorously<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">apply it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> Absolutely, so I hope you guys<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">enjoyed the episode. Please subscribe to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">the BiggerPockets podcast on iTunes,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0S<\/span><span class=\"s1\">titcher, Android, wherever you happen to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">be listening so you notified when new<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">shows come out. I hope everybody had a<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">great time. Reach out and let us know what<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you thought and with that being said<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">unless you have anything else Scott<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re ready to sign off?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Scott:<\/b> Let&#8217;s do it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>David:<\/b> This<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">is David Greene with Scott set for life<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0T<\/span><span class=\"s1\">rench signing off.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You&#8217;re listening to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0B<\/span><span class=\"s1\">iggerPockets Radio, simplifying real<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">estate for investors large and small. If<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re here looking to learn about real<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">estate investing without all the hype,<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">you&#8217;re in the right place. Be sure to<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">join the millions of others who have<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">benefited from BiggerPockets.com, your<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">home for real estate investing online.<\/span><span class=\"s2\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"podcast-youtube-video\">Watch the Podcast Here<\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Mastering the Decision-Making Process with Annie Duke | BP Podcast 297\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/D1gf52ODyc4?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2>Help Us Out!<\/h2>\n<p>Help us reach new listeners on iTunes by leaving us a rating and review! 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We really appreciate it!<\/p>\n<h2>This Show Sponsored By<\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-77567 alignright no-display appear\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/simplisafe.png\" alt=\"simplisafe\" width=\"271\" height=\"58\" title=\"\">Check out\u00a0<strong>SimpliSafe<\/strong>\u00a0Security\u2019s DIY home security systems; an affordable, wireless, cellular, and customizable system that doesn\u2019t require a contract!<\/p>\n<p>Try it today with a discount:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/simplisafepockets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">simplisafepockets.com<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Deep Dive Sponsor<\/h2>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-101944\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/stessa-logo-300x67.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"67\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/stessa-logo-300x67.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/stessa-logo.png 330w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>Stessa<\/strong> makes it easy for both novice and sophisticated investors to drive operational efficiencies, maximize revenue, and improve overall portfolio performance.\u00a0Just take a few minutes, add your properties, link your accounts, and everything updates in real-time. Stessa brings the institutional tools used by the pros to the everyday investor for free<\/p>\n<p>To learn more and get started with a free account, go to <a href=\"http:\/\/stessa.com\/bp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Stessa.com\/bp<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Fire Round Sponsor<\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-74647 size-gallery-block\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/freshlogo-214x140.png\" alt=\"freshlogo\" width=\"214\" height=\"140\" title=\"\">A huge thanks as well to our\u00a0sponsor <strong>FreshBooks<\/strong>.<br \/>\nFreshBooks customers spend less time on paperwork, freeing up <span class=\"tooltips\">2 days per month<\/span> to focus on the work they love. What would you do with that extra time?<\/p>\n<p>Learn more by visiting\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.freshbooks.com\/pages\/biggerpockets?ref=11568&amp;utm_source=bigger-pockets&amp;utm_medium=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=2015\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FreshBooks<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>In This Episode We Cover:<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Annie&#8217;s backstory and how she got into <strong>professional poker<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Her concept of <strong>risk management<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Thoughts on <strong>luck and circumstances<\/strong> we have no control over<\/li>\n<li>Elements of luck versus <strong>elements of skill<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Pete Carroll&#8217;s <strong>endgame decision<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>The concept of <strong>\u201cresulting&#8221;<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>What constitutes a <strong>consensus<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>choice<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Winning and losing\u2014and caring about your <strong>decision-making process<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>The difference between <strong>real estate investing and poker<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>The importance of <strong>confidence and certainty<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Why one <strong>shouldn&#8217;t be afraid<\/strong> of losing and being blamed<\/li>\n<li><strong>A champion<\/strong> versus a victim<\/li>\n<li><strong>And SO much more!<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Links from the Show<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/forums\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">BiggerPockets Forums<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt0128442\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Rounders<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"\/renewsblog\/2014\/06\/12\/bp-074-buying-first-investment-property-newbie\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">BiggerPockets Podcast 074: Buying My First Investment Property- A Newbie Podcast with Jordan, Jacob and Jeromie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"\/renewsblog\/author\/jordanthibodeau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jordan Thibodeau&#8217;s Author Profile<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/scott_trench\/?hl=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scott&#8217;s Instagram<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/davidgreene24\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">David&#8217;s Instagram<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"\/renewsblog\/2016\/01\/14\/bp-podcast-157-simple-morning-ritual-help-dominate-every-area-life-with-hal-elrod\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">BiggerPockets Podcast 157: A Simple Morning Ritual to Help You Dominate Every Area of Your Life with Hal Elrod<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Books Mentioned in this Show<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/2QJ7zuC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>Thinking in Bets<\/em><\/a> by Annie Duke<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/2QIubeA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>The Miracle Morning<\/em><\/a> by Hal Elrod<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/2QHsFtl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>The Geometry of Wealth<\/em><\/a> by Brian Portnoy<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/2po6o7v\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>Decide to Play Great Poker<\/em><\/a> by Annie Duke<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/2DdY9EB\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>Superforecasting<\/em><\/a>\u00a0by Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/2QIW46o\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>Extreme Ownership<\/em><\/a> by\u00a0Jocko Willink<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/2pjLHt4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>Radical Candor<\/em><\/a> by Kim Scott<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/2NUpsYB\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>Thinking, Fast and Slow<\/em><\/a> by\u00a0Daniel Kahneman<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/2NSr2ug\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>The Signal and the Noise<\/em><\/a> by\u00a0Nate Silver<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/setforlife\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>Set for Life<\/em><\/a> by Scott Trench<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Tweetable Topics:<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;Every decision, even small executional decisions all the way to the larger goals, carries risks.\u201d\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/home?status=%22Every%20decision,%20even%20small%20executional%20decisions%20all%20the%20way%20to%20the%20larger%20goals,%20carries%20risks.%E2%80%9D%20BP%20Podcast%20297%20%40biggerpockets%20biggerpockets.com\/show297\" target=\"_blank\">Tweet This!<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>\u201cThere are no small decisions.\u201d (<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/home?status=%22Every%20decision,%20even%20small%20executional%20decisions%20all%20the%20way%20to%20the%20larger%20goals,%20carries%20risks.%E2%80%9D%20BP%20Podcast%20297%20%40biggerpockets%20biggerpockets.com\/show297\" target=\"_blank\">Tweet This!<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>\u201cThe most important person we need to worry about pointing fingers at is ourselves.\u201d (<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/home?status=%E2%80%9CThe%20most%20important%20person%20we%20need%20to%20worry%20about%20pointing%20fingers%20at%20is%20ourselves.%E2%80%9D%20BP%20Podcast%20297%20%40biggerpockets%20biggerpockets.com\/show297\" target=\"_blank\">Tweet This!<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Connect with Annie<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/annieduke.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Annie Duke&#8217;s Personal Website<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/annieduke\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Annie Duke&#8217;s Twitter Profile<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In today\u2019s epic show, we interview World Series of Poker bracelet champion Annie Duke. Annie is a nationally sought-after speaker who combines her mastery of poker with a study of the cognitive sciences in a truly unique and brilliant way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17340,"featured_media":118222,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4565],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-biggerpockets-podcast"],"acf":[],"comment_count":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17340"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102439"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102439\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118222"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}