{"id":108076,"date":"2019-03-01T11:00:56","date_gmt":"2019-03-01T18:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/renewsblog\/?p=108076"},"modified":"2021-03-16T14:52:34","modified_gmt":"2021-03-16T20:52:34","slug":"real-estate-investors-stop-skinny-dipping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/real-estate-investors-stop-skinny-dipping","title":{"rendered":"Warren Buffett\u2019s Advice to Real Estate Investors: \u201cStop Skinny Dipping!\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Have you ever met someone famous? Or gotten to know them?<\/p>\n<p>Be honest\u2014after the initial awe wore off, were you disappointed?\u00a0Most people are.<\/p>\n<p>One day, my pastor relayed how he grew up in awe of a Boston Red Sox legend. He was thrilled every time that player went to bat, and he dreamed of playing on the same field someday. He worked hard for 18 years, chasing that dream.<\/p>\n<p>Then, he met his idol. Actually, he didn\u2019t only meet him\u2014the legend became his coach!<\/p>\n<p>And that\u2019s when the disappointment set in. The guy was anything but the hero he played on TV. He was quite the contrary, in fact.<\/p>\n<h2>My Encounter with a Real Estate Idol<\/h2>\n<p>I was in a room a few months back, when one of the nation\u2019s leading <a href=\"\/renewsblog\/2013\/04\/09\/how-to-buy-a-small-multifamily-property\/\" target=\"_blank\">multifamily syndicators<\/a> showed up unexpectedly and grabbed the mic. I was delighted!<\/p>\n<p>I had heard of his exploits but never listened to him speak. But now, there I was, seeing a guy in-person whose story may ultimately go down in history.<\/p>\n<p>He talked about how bullish he was on multifamily. As the author of a humbly-titled book on the subject, I obviously agreed\u2014at least about the multifamily business and its long-term prospects.<\/p>\n<p>Then, he said (I\u2019m not quoting him verbatim),\u00a0\u201cDon\u2019t worry about overpaying for multifamily. Just get a great property in a great location, and get in the game for the long haul.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I looked around the room. Was I alone in being shocked? Was this some kind of a joke?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-107696\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/fail.jpg\" alt=\"man at desk with hand covering face taking a break from work with glasses and open laptop on desk symbolizing stress, frustration\" width=\"702\" height=\"336\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/fail.jpg 702w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/fail-300x144.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 702px) 100vw, 702px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Related:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><em><a href=\"\/renewsblog\/2015\/10\/26\/thinking-buying-multifamilystopwait-read-this\/\" target=\"_blank\">Thinking About Buying a Multifamily? STOP! Wait Until You Read This!<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>I waited for the punchline\u2014that he never delivered. He was serious.<\/p>\n<p>And I later learned one of my investors actually saw a document showing that he was\u00a0buying a large multifamily deal at around a 1 percent <a href=\"\/renewsblog\/2011\/11\/16\/capitalization-rate-%E2%80%93-techniques-to-speed-up-your-decision-making-part-iii\/\" target=\"_blank\">cap rate<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>I spent some of that day wondering about my life and priorities. My company has been passing on dozens\u2014no hundreds\u2014of multifamily deals over the last four years.<\/p>\n<p>It was always something.<em> Over-priced!\u00a0<\/em><em>Marginal location!\u00a0<\/em><em>Out-bid! (Again.)\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>We were sitting on the sidelines while this truly brilliant and savvy guy has amassed a fortune in multifamily and other holdings. He drives the same car as the British royals and has at least one private jet.<\/p>\n<h3>Am I the One Who&#8217;s Out to Lunch?<\/h3>\n<p>What&#8217;s more, a few weeks ago, I saw the most recent annual report of multifamily sales from CBRE. The headline proclaimed, &#8220;2018 Multifamily Demand Highest Since 2000.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Here are a few highlights from the report:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The U.S. multifamily market remains healthy, as 2018 net absorption reached the highest level since 2000.<\/li>\n<li>Construction activity was also strong, with completions only slightly under 2017\u2019s amount. Nevertheless, demand exceeded new supply for the year.<\/li>\n<li>The overall vacancy rate of 4.5% in Q4 was down 20 basis points year-over-year.<\/li>\n<li>Rent growth climbed to an annual rate of 2.8%, up from 2.3% a year ago.<\/li>\n<li>Multifamily acquisitions totaled $173 billion in 2018, the highest level in 19 years and up 12.1% from 2017.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I guess it was the last one that really bugged me: multifamily acquisitions were way up.<\/p>\n<p>So, here I am, the guy who called multifamily &#8220;the perfect investment,&#8221; going as far as to write a book by that title. I even did a <a href=\"\/renewsblog\/biggerpockets-podcast-285-3-reasons-multifamily-rentals-might-be-the-perfect-investment-with-paul-moore\/\" target=\"_blank\">BiggerPockets podcast<\/a>\u00a0of the same name!<\/p>\n<p>However, I haven\u2019t been acquiring multifamily lately. In fact, I have been warning people about it being overheated in <a href=\"\/renewsblog\/the-surest-way-to-destroy-your-real-estate-investing-career\/\" target=\"_blank\">post<\/a> after <a href=\"\/renewsblog\/ignore-principle-youll-destroy-real-estate-career\/\" target=\"_blank\">post<\/a> after <a href=\"\/renewsblog\/why-are-so-many-overpaying-multifamily\/\" target=\"_blank\">post<\/a>\u00a0on BiggerPockets.<\/p>\n<p>All of that, and I\u2019m actually an optimist!<\/p>\n<p>But then&#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I watched a number of friends pay seemingly inflated prices for deals in questionable locations (in my opinion) and still make a killing.<\/li>\n<li>I heard one of the world\u2019s most successful multifamily syndicators telling the world why it\u2019s OK to overpay.<\/li>\n<li>The new CBRE report explained that scores of others were buying multifamily in 2018.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Meanwhile, my firm wasn&#8217;t getting in on any of it.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-107303\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/opportunity.jpg\" alt=\"man looking out over river at cityscape and sunset\" width=\"702\" height=\"336\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/opportunity.jpg 702w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/opportunity-300x144.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 702px) 100vw, 702px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>What Would Warren Buffett Do?<\/h2>\n<p>Confused, I revisited the advice of one of the most successful investors of all time, Warren Buffett:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In a 2001 Berkshire Hathaway investor letter, Buffett wrote, \u201cAfter all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I also read up on\u00a0Gary Vaynerchuk, one of the world\u2019s greatest marketers. What did he have to say on this topic?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;That bubble will burst, and then we\u2019ll get to see who\u2019s still around. And then we\u2019ll get to see everyone else who says &#8216;entrepreneur&#8217; in their Instagram profile right now, when they\u2019re working at Bank of America in 24 months. And so, that\u2019s what I\u2019m waiting for. I\u2019m most excited for, and waiting for, and hoping for, complete global economic carnage, so that we can weed out the B and C and D players,&#8221; Vaynerchuk said on stage at the 2018 Consumer Electronics Show.<\/p>\n<p>He continued, &#8220;If you\u2019re not a good entrepreneur, you should have a job. Merit and the truth are always the winners, in the macro. We\u2019re just in a micro right now, and people are confused.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><em><strong>Related:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><em><a href=\"\/renewsblog\/warren-buffett-mentor\" target=\"_blank\">How I Hired Warren Buffett as My Real Estate Mentor<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<h3>Considering the Advice of Other Major Players<\/h3>\n<p>Friends and fellow real estate investors, let\u2019s all remember that <strong>some of the best deals you will ever do are those that you don&#8217;t do.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Take it from me, the guy who hosts the <em>How to Lose Money<\/em> podcast and who has made lots of mistakes over decades of investing.<\/p>\n<p>More importantly, you\u2019ve heard it from giants like Buffett and Vaynerchuk.<\/p>\n<p>So, what are you going to do to prepare for the outgoing tide, which is inevitable but impossible to time? Are you skinny dipping with sharks? That could be&#8230; well, very painful.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/webinars?utm_source=newsletter\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-91217\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/blog_ads-01.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"85\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/blog_ads-01.jpg 700w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/blog_ads-01-300x36.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Have you met any of your investing idols? How did it go?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Comment below.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Have you ever met someone famous? After the initial awe wore off, were you disappointed? Most people are. I was! I once ran into a famous multifamily real estate investor, and his advice was completely contrary to what I was expecting and how my business was operating. It shook me up. Here\u2019s the story. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":214608,"featured_media":108136,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5524],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-108076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-estate-investing-for-beginners"],"acf":[],"comment_count":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/214608"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108076"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108076\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}