{"id":146177,"date":"2023-01-03T09:05:39","date_gmt":"2023-01-03T16:05:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/?p=146177"},"modified":"2023-08-09T10:52:43","modified_gmt":"2023-08-09T16:52:43","slug":"these-10-markets-could-boom-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/these-10-markets-could-boom-in-2023","title":{"rendered":"These 10 Markets Could Boom In 2023\u2014According To The NAR"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n      <iframe loading=\"lazy\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/playlist.megaphone.fm\/?e=BIGPOC3234433795\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe>\r\n  \n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">2023 will be tougher for the housing market, but not the worst, according to the&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">National Association of Realtors (NAR)<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Annual Real Estate Forecast Summit, organized by the NAR, delivered its verdict on 2023 late last year. The&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/cdn.nar.realtor\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/2022-12-13-nar-real-estate-forecast-summit-the-year-ahead-lawrence-yun-presentation-slides-12-13-2022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">prognosis<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, put together by NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, can be summarized as a slow year for home sellers. Although no immediate catastrophe is likely to hit the housing market, all the current trends point to a year of declining sales and slower home price growth in most areas.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Having said that, Yun identifies several emerging housing markets that will likely experience price increases in 2023, much like Austin and other cities did during the pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Home Sales Will Continue to Fall<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The most significant prediction is that home sales will continue to drop in 2023. We\u2019ve been on a downward trend through&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/2022-housing-market-review\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">2022<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, which will likely continue. Existing home sales dropped 16% during 2022 and is now at the lowest levels since 2014.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/newresconst.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">New housing starts<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;are faring somewhat better, trending around its historical averages. The market for new housing starts survived its worst crisis in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crash, making a slow but steady recovery over the past decade. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1168\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fredgraph-40.png\" alt=\"housing starts 1960-2023\" class=\"wp-image-146179\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fredgraph-40.png 1168w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fredgraph-40-300x116.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fredgraph-40-1024x395.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fredgraph-40-768x296.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1168px) 100vw, 1168px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started (1960-2022) &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The slowing down of this segment of the housing market next year is representative of the overall downward trend, but, as Yun points out, \u201cnew home sales are holding up better than existing home sales because new home sales really took a dive during the foreclosure crisis and never fully recovered from that, and hence they had a low base reference to compare.\u201d&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Home Price Growth Will Flatline or Decline<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Home price growth is expected to flatline in 2023, ending the Covid price boom officially. The current prediction is an average&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/nar-economist-housing-prices-rise\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">increase of just 0.3%<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;to an average home price of nearly $455,000. What that really means is that the housing market is still growing, just slowly.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1168\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fredgraph-41.png\" alt=\"median sales price of homes sold 1963-2022\" class=\"wp-image-146182\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fredgraph-41.png 1168w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fredgraph-41-300x116.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fredgraph-41-1024x395.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fredgraph-41-768x296.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1168px) 100vw, 1168px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Median Sales Price of Homes Sold (1963-2022) &#8211; St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">According to the NAR, we\u2019ve avoided a massive crash or anything close to a crisis. The job market has proven to remain strong, some markets have held their ground on price, and inflation has begun its descent. Yun points out that \u2018\u2018today there are some layoffs in the mortgage industry and maybe the technology industry has stopped hiring people, but if you look at the net, there are still job creating conditions.\u2019\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The other lifeline that\u2019s prevented a crash is the mortgage market. It is safe to say that the tightening of borrowing rules after the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 has made the housing market more resilient. \u201cSubprime mortgages, those shady, risky, self-reporting mortgages, were widely prevalent during the last cycle. This time around, people have to meet the new regulations, so we don\u2019t have those risky mortgages\u201d, said Yun. The NAR also predicts that&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/mortgage-rate-outlook-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">mortgage rates will fall below 6%<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;sometime during Q3 2023 and remain there through the end of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Finally, the supply-demand gap will not be bridged anytime soon. This means that buyer demand will continue to prop up the market for many months to come, which will keep home prices stable in most areas unless you are in California, which is predicted to experience a significant decline in home prices of 10-15%.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Next Austin?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The NAR points towards the following metros as the housing market hotspots of 2023:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Atlanta, Georgia<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Raleigh, North Carolina<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas-Missouri<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Greenville, South Carolina<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Charleston, South Carolina<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Huntsville, Alabama<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Jacksonville, Florida<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">San Antonio, Texas&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Knoxville, Tennessee<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The South will lead the way in 2023. According to Yun, \u201cSouthern states, generally speaking, meet the criteria of reasonable affordability, in-migration, and high-paying jobs being created.\u201d&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Real estate investors should take note of this trend if they want to capitalize on these market opportunities before they inevitably become oversaturated, as has been the case with Austin.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n    \n  <div id=\"visibility-group-block_21b168d061d78e464b4a2b8268ef79db\" class=\"visibility-group alignwide  hidden\">\n        \n\n<div id=\"hero-block_92f71c9e1cceed59a96b693a65c86d95\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4  alignwide   has-background has-slate-200-background-color has-text-color has-theme-gold-color\">\n    <div\n        class=\"gap-10 lg:gap-20 flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n\n        <div class=\"relative z-30 lg:w-1\/2 \">\n            <main class=\"py-4\">\n                \n\n<p class=\"has-slate-800-color has-text-color has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:800\">Find the Right Agent, Close the Best Deal<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-slate-900-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\">Step #1: Use Agent Finder to match with top <em><strong>investor-friendly<\/strong><\/em> real estate agents to help you find, analyze, and close your next deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=button-custom-event-block_50ebf1b66293a790fb452a2411b12b40 class='button-custom-event'>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/agent\/match\" x-on:click=\"window.analytics.track(&#039;Blog Block | B2C Marketplace Agent Finder&#039;, {\n      referrer: &#039;https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/these-10-markets-could-boom-in-2023&#039;,\n    });\" class=\" btn-shape inline-block no-underline has-background has-theme-blue-background-color has-text-color has-white-color\" target=\"_blank\">Find an Agent<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n\n            <\/main>\n        <\/div>\n\n                <div class=\"lg:w-1\/2 first:mt-0 relative h-full lg:flex lg:items-center\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"object-cover w-full relative z-20 my-0  rounded-md hidden lg:block\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Marketplace-Blog-Blocks-Agent-v3.png\" alt=\"investor friendly real estate agent\" title=\"\">\n        <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n  \n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n    \n  <div id=\"visibility-group-block_64dd31c79f00f\" class=\"visibility-group  \">\n        \n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"hero-block_64dd2875dba9d\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4    has-background has-slate-100-background-color has-text-color has-theme-slate-color\">\n    <div\n        class=\" flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n\n        <div class=\"relative z-30 w-full \">\n            <main class=\"py-4\">\n                \n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading my-0 tracking-tight font-extrabold has-theme-slate-dark-color has-text-color has-large-font-size\">Join the community<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-theme-slate-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Ready to succeed in real estate investing? Create a free BiggerPockets account to learn about investment strategies; ask questions and get answers from our community of +2 million members; connect with investor-friendly agents; and so much more. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=button-custom-event-block_64dd2888dba9e class='button-custom-event'>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/signup\" x-on:click=\"window.analytics.track(&#039;Blog Block | Acquisition | Free Membership Signup&#039;, {\n      referrer: &#039;https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/these-10-markets-could-boom-in-2023&#039;,\n    });\" class=\" btn-shape inline-block no-underline has-background has-theme-blue-background-color has-text-color has-white-color\" target=\"_blank\">Sign Up<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n\n            <\/main>\n        <\/div>\n\n            <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2023 will be tougher for the housing market, but not the worst, according to the&nbsp;National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Annual Real Estate Forecast Summit, organized by the NAR, delivered [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":613618,"featured_media":146178,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,7119],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-146177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-estate-trends","category-biggerpockets-daily"],"acf":[],"comment_count":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/613618"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=146177"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146177\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/146178"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=146177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=146177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=146177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}