{"id":152134,"date":"2023-05-03T16:19:36","date_gmt":"2023-05-03T22:19:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/?p=152134"},"modified":"2024-02-27T10:07:36","modified_gmt":"2024-02-27T17:07:36","slug":"home-prices-are-rising-in-these-big-markets-is-the-correction-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/home-prices-are-rising-in-these-big-markets-is-the-correction-over","title":{"rendered":"Home Prices Rose In 93 Of The 100 Largest Housing Markets\u2014Is The Correction Ending?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n      <iframe loading=\"lazy\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/playlist.megaphone.fm\/?e=BIGPOC3904222662\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe>\r\n  \n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">After seven straight months of declining prices, the <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/CSUSHPINSA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S&amp;P\/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<\/a> increased in February, and March seems to be carrying the same upward momentum.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The latest data from&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Black Knight<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;finds that out of the 100 largest markets in the nation, 93 had price increases from February to March, up from 79 in January-February.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This, of course, is traditionally expected as the spring months tend to bring a bump in prices as homebuying demand ramps up. But the&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/05\/02\/home-prices-rise-in-march-amid-competitive-spring-market.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">rise is more than expected<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. \u201cA modest bump in homebuyer demand ran headlong into falling for-sale supply,\u201d said Andy Walden, Black Knight\u2019s vice president of enterprise research. \u201cJust five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in 92% of all major U.S. markets. Fast forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180, with prices now rising in 92% of markets from February.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It should be noted that most&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/us-housing-market\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">key year-over-year metrics<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;indicate a correction environment and show more similarities to the 2019 market than any of the pandemic years. As of March, only 28.5% of homes sold over list price, down -26% YoY. Price drops are up to 14.3% (+7.7%), new listings are down -22.5%, and median days on market have increased to 44 (+23). In short, demand is lower, and more homes are sitting on the market, but new listings are also not coming online at the same rate as before, which helps explain why national prices are only down -3.3% YoY instead of more.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Personally, I\u2019m bearish about this market. I think when you have homeowners with low fixed-interest rates constraining supply, elevated mortgage rates&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/05\/03\/mortgage-demand-drops-as-bank-failures-hit-jumbo-loan-rates.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">keeping applications<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;down, a real fear of an upcoming (or continued, depending on who you ask) recession, record-low affordability, persistent inflation, banking scares, and the fact that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/multifamily-real-estate-is-on-the-brink-of-crashing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">multifamily<\/a> and commercial real estate at serious risk of crashing\u2014it\u2019s hard to be fully optimistic about the market.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">However, some markets have shrugged off these dilemmas while others have taken a real hit. Real estate is local, and we have to deal with what\u2019s in front of us.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">What Markets Are On The Rise?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Despite the issues in the economy, just seven of the 100 largest markets in the United States saw month-over-month price declines. Leading the pack was Austin, Texas, which saw a -0.72% drop, according to Black Knight.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Among the markets seeing an uptick, Columbus, Ohio, had the highest increase (+1.08%). Below are the top 10 markets:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-regular\"><table><thead><tr><th>Housing Market<\/th><th>Percent Change MoM<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Columbus, Ohio<\/td><td>1.08%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dayton, Ohio<\/td><td>1.04%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hartford, Connecticut<\/td><td>1.04%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Worcester, Massachusetts<\/td><td>1.04%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Youngstown, Ohio<\/td><td>0.98%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cleveland, Ohio<\/td><td>0.96%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cincinnati, Ohio<\/td><td>0.91%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Akron, Ohio<\/td><td>0.91%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wichita, Kansas<\/td><td>0.90%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Toledo, Ohio<\/td><td>0.88%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Here are the bottom 10 markets:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-regular\"><table><thead><tr><th>Housing Market<\/th><th>Percent Change MoM<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Austin, Texas<\/td><td>-0.72%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Provo, Utah<\/td><td>-0.24%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Boise, Idaho<\/td><td>-0.13%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Salt Lake City, Utah<\/td><td>-0.12%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ogden, Utah<\/td><td>-0.80%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>San Antonio, Texas<\/td><td>-0.70%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Phoenix, Arizona<\/td><td>-0.40%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dallas, Texas<\/td><td>0.10%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deltona, Florida<\/td><td>0.13%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Houston, Texas<\/td><td>0.15%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The biggest takeaway is that the superstar markets of the pandemic boom, largely Boise and Austin, are the ones getting hammered the most. Austin continues its descent from its median sales price peak in May 2022 of $670,000 to $535,000, a -16% decline.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1229\" height=\"557\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-6.07.04-PM.png\" alt=\"Austin, TX, Median Sales Price (2020-2023) - Redfin\" class=\"wp-image-152139\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-6.07.04-PM.png 1229w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-6.07.04-PM-300x136.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-6.07.04-PM-1024x464.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-6.07.04-PM-768x348.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1229px) 100vw, 1229px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Austin, TX, Median Sales Price (2020-2023) &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Redfin<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Meanwhile, Miami just notched a record-high of $560,000.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1229\" height=\"554\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-6.08.22-PM.png\" alt=\"Miami, FL, Median Sales Price (2020-2023) - Redfin\" class=\"wp-image-152140\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-6.08.22-PM.png 1229w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-6.08.22-PM-300x135.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-6.08.22-PM-1024x462.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-6.08.22-PM-768x346.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1229px) 100vw, 1229px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Miami, FL, Median Sales Price (2020-2023) &#8211; Redfin<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">According to data from Redfin, Miami has emerged as the country&#8217;s leading city for inbound migration, which helps explain why it&#8217;s still appreciating. But, just like Austin during the pandemic, this rapid migration may ultimately lead to a similar decline later in the future once the dust settles\u2014just food for thought for anyone investing in Miami-Dade County.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">What About The Correction?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As I mentioned, prices tend to rise during this time of year. The bigger question going forward is whether the national market is finished falling. Come winter, prices will all but certainly fall, but by how much? Have we truly reached the \u201cbottom\u201d of the market?<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Who knows. Two specific factors have spurred the housing market\u2019s correction. The first is affordability. Home prices in markets across the country hit all-time highs that locked a lot of potential homebuyers out of the market. This naturally leads to less demand as more and more buyers leave the market, putting downward pressure on prices. The second is the Federal Reserve\u2019s rate hike policy, which has produced&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/advisor\/investing\/fed-funds-rate-history\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">10 rate increases since March 2022<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;and has pushed the Federal Funds Rate to above 5%, a 16-year high.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It\u2019s been&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/the-fed-wants-a-housing-correction\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">well-established<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;that the Fed\u2019s inflation battle would harm real estate and that it was sort of the point. Prices got too high (for everything, not just housing), and the Fed felt they needed to act, albeit too late.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Now that the correction is in full swing, affordability, which has&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/center-for-housing-and-policy\/data-and-tools\/home-ownership-affordability-monitor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">improved ever so slightly<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;this year, is a positive trend that can begin to work against it. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"389\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-5.30.10-PM-1024x389.png\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta National Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) Index (2006-2023) - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta\" class=\"wp-image-152141\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-5.30.10-PM-1024x389.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-5.30.10-PM-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-5.30.10-PM-768x292.png 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-03-at-5.30.10-PM.png 1447w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta National Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) Index (2006-2023) &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Fed, on the other hand, is still hard to predict. For now, it\u2019s reasonable to assume that they will continue to jack up interest rates until they can quell inflation back down to a sustainable level.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">What\u2019s that level, you ask? Well, 2% has been the standard for a long time, but these days&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/03\/24\/business\/inflation-federal-reserve-interest-rates.html#:~:text=The%20Fed&#039;s%20Strategy%3A%20The%20Fed,get%20inflation%20down%20to%202%25.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the rumor is 3-4%<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. The Fed hasn\u2019t said anything about changing its long-held target in public, but depending on how things go for the rest of this year, things might be changing, leaving even more uncertainty on the table.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Conclusion<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Overall, it\u2019s still too early to make definitive forecasts about where things are going.&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.zillow.com\/research\/zillow-home-value-and-sales-forecast-march-2023-32364\/#:~:text=The%20national%20Zillow%20Home%20Value,over%20the%20next%2012%20months.&amp;text=Zillow%20expects%204.3%20million%20existing,growth%20of%200.5%25%20in%202023.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Zillow<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;still maintains that prices will rise by 0.6% this year. CoreLogic is even more bullish, predicting a 4.6% increase. Fannie Mae, on the other hand, is&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/media\/46846\/display\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">forecasting price declines<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;through 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As investors, staying on top of this information and taking everything you read and hear with a grain of salt is important. Do your own research, make your own decisions, and protect your money.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"hero-block_62ee867235a1c\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4    has-background has-slate-300-background-color has-text-color has-slate-800-color\">\n    <div\n        class=\"gap-10 lg:gap-20 flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n\n        <div class=\"relative z-30 lg:w-2\/3 \">\n            <main class=\"py-4\">\n                \n\n<p class=\"has-theme-slate-color has-text-color has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Close MORE deals in LESS time for LESS money <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-theme-slate-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16px\"><em>Wealth without Cash<\/em> will fully prepare you to find off-market leads, uncover sellers\u2019 motivations, negotiate with confidence, close more deals, build a team, and much more.&nbsp;This book by Pace Morby has everything you need to become a millionaire investor without utilizing your own capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=button-custom-event-block_641384b1eb1d8 class='button-custom-event'>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Wealth-without-Cash-Supercharge-Subject\/dp\/1947200887\/ref=sr_1_1?crid=9KZLGF71C0N1&#038;keywords=wealth+without+cash+pace+morby&#038;qid=1684186115&#038;sprefix=wealth+witou%2Caps%2C119&#038;sr=8-1\" x-on:click=\"window.analytics.track(&#039;Blog Block | Publishing: WWC&#039;, {\n      referrer: &#039;https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/home-prices-are-rising-in-these-big-markets-is-the-correction-over&#039;,\n    });\" class=\" btn-shape inline-block no-underline has-background has-theme-gold-background-color has-text-color has-white-color\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Get Your Copy<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n\n            <\/main>\n        <\/div>\n\n                <div class=\"lg:w-1\/3 first:mt-0 relative h-full lg:flex lg:items-center\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"object-cover w-full relative z-20 my-0  rounded-md hidden lg:block\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/WWC_Cover-Flat-1-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"\">\n        <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Housing prices have been on the decline for seven straight months, but in March, the trend shifted gears. These markets are leading the charge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":612375,"featured_media":152137,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7381,7119],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-152134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-prices","category-biggerpockets-daily"],"acf":[],"comment_count":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152134","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/612375"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=152134"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152134\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/152137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=152134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=152134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=152134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}