{"id":156316,"date":"2023-08-07T13:24:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-07T19:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/?p=156316"},"modified":"2024-02-28T07:46:15","modified_gmt":"2024-02-28T14:46:15","slug":"housing-recession-is-over-according-to-nar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/housing-recession-is-over-according-to-nar","title":{"rendered":"“The Housing Recession is Over” Says NAR\u2014Is It?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Home prices have increased steadily <\/span>month-over-month since February<\/span><\/a>. In fact, home prices went up a whopping 4% between February and May alone, according to the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index released in July.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And while today\u2019s prices are still slightly below year-ago numbers, the continued uptrend has many wondering: Has this latest housing downturn already come to an end?<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to one major industry player, it has. Here\u2019s what they have to say\u2014and the data that might just back them up.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NAR: Recession is Over, But Recovery is Not<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) latest pending sales report shows pending home sales were up slightly in June\u2014the first increase since February of this year. This, combined with a dearth of inventory and subsequently rising prices, has the trade group\u2019s chief economist calling the recession officially over.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “The presence of multiple offers implies that housing demand is not being satisfied due to lack of supply.”<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That lack of supply Yun mentions has been a problem for years. But recent mortgage rates\u2014which are considerably higher than what the majority of homeowners have on their current mortgage \u2014have worsened the issue, keeping many existing homes off the market. <\/span>According to Redfin data<\/span><\/a>, the number of for-sale homes is down 12.5% compared to last year as of June. <\/span>Zillow data<\/span><\/a> from 2021 also shows that the U.S. market is about 4.3 million homes short of demand. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s why, despite the recession being \u201cover\u201d by Yun\u2019s assessment, we won\u2019t see a total about-face in the market anytime soon. This means there won\u2019t be skyrocketing prices like we saw in 2021, nor will rampant bidding wars likely be the case.\u00a0<\/span>According to Redfin<\/span><\/a>, about 40% of homes sold for above listing price in June\u2014down 15% compared to last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

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