{"id":160779,"date":"2023-10-16T13:32:54","date_gmt":"2023-10-16T19:32:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/?p=160779"},"modified":"2023-12-19T06:43:05","modified_gmt":"2023-12-19T13:43:05","slug":"fall-winter-real-estate-market-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/fall-winter-real-estate-market-2023","title":{"rendered":"Here&#8217;s What the Autumn-Winter Real Estate Market Looks Like For Investors"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n      <iframe loading=\"lazy\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/playlist.megaphone.fm\/?e=BIGPOC8470658631\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe>\r\n  \n\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The typical advice investors are given is that the fall-winter season is a great time to buy real estate. The narrative goes like this:&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Families are done house hunting for the season because they don\u2019t want to disrupt the school year.<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The homes that didn\u2019t sell during peak season are likely to be discounted by increasingly nervous sellers.&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Shrewd investors can get great deals on real estate.&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Does this seasonal pattern really still apply to the current housing market?&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">If we dig a little deeper into what\u2019s really going on with the post-pandemic real estate market, we\u2019ll see that things have changed. Autumn and winter 2023 will look different for investors for a number of reasons, and this change is likely to be long-lasting.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Seasonal Buyers Are Becoming \u201cAnytime Buyers\u201d<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Traditionally, the end of summer signals a drop in demand for single-family homes as families settle in for another school year. However, this hasn\u2019t been the case since 2020, according to recent research by&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.opendoor.com\/articles\/the-rise-of-the-anytime-buyer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Opendoor<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The researchers analyzed housing data from 2017 to 2022 and found that \u201ceven though new listings decline on average 21% in the fall, demand from buyers has increased since 2020. In other words, there have still been just as many buyers looking in the fall\u2014people we\u2019re calling \u2018Anytime Buyers.\u2019\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">First, the school year, important as it is, is not the only factor in homebuyer decision-making. Job and income changes play a big part in moving decisions. The ability to&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/the-real-world-impacts-on-remote-work-and-what-it-did-for-investors\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">work remotely<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;post-pandemic has shifted buyer perspectives like no other factor. Interstate moves are now officially more common than moves within the same metro area, according to&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-migration-trends-august-2023\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">migration trend research<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;by Redfin. Moving between metro areas is a big life disruption, including changing schools, and it\u2019s one that homeowners are increasingly willing to undertake, regardless of the time of year.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/afford-invest-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Affordability<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;is another key factor. Many homebuyers are determined to secure a home in a market that remains highly competitive, with demand outstripping supply. Neither rising interest rates nor economic uncertainty has had much of an impact on this doggedness.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">One strategy buyers are adopting involves looking for homes after peak real estate season. The promise of better deals in the fall and winter is an open secret, with many more people taking advantage of this supposedly quieter and cheaper season.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">What It Means to Real Estate Investors<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">These shifts have several implications for real estate investors. As an investor, you\u2019re no longer in the somewhat privileged position of bargain-hunting during the low season. You are now in competition with other homebuyers who haven\u2019t exited the market until next year, as would have been the case before the pandemic.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">At the same time, if house flipping is your goal, there is good news. A steady influx of buyers throughout the year will be an advantage once your investment is ready to sell.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">All the current research is pointing toward a huge appetite for better housing among existing homeowners. Yes, first-time buyers are really feeling the squeeze, increasingly unable to afford starter homes. However, when it comes to buyers wanting to move up to a better, bigger home, there are no signs of a market slowdown.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">We know that people are on the move; we also know they are moving out of the large cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago and into metro areas that offer them a higher quality of living for less\u2014places like Las Vegas; Sacramento, California; and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. If you can tap into this ongoing \u201cgreat migration\u201d and offer ready-to-move-in properties at competitive prices, you can still reap the benefits of the pandemic housing boom, even if many media outlets claim it\u2019s over.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">If you\u2019re a&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/i-love-rental-properties\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">buy-to-rent investor<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, you also are in a strong position if you can tap into hot housing markets. Florida and the Midwest are currently leading in popularity as the most desirable locations for renters, according to data from&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.yardimatrix.com\/Media\/Downloads#gp_4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Yardi Matrix<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. Once again, as many young professionals are now unconstrained by geographically fixed employment, many are seeking a warmer climate, a more relaxed lifestyle, and the higher affordability of the South and the Midwest. Many regions, especially Florida, are seeing near-full rental occupancy.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">What Will Autumn and Winter Look Like For Investors?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The single most important thing investors should bear in mind about the current housing market is that a historically low housing stock dominates it. And this factor is unlikely to change during this fall-winter season.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As Jack Macdowell, chief investment officer and co-founder at Palisades Group, told&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/advisor\/mortgages\/real-estate\/housing-market-predictions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Forbes<\/span><\/em><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;in a recent interview: \u201cInventory is approximately 46% below the historical average dating back to 1999. We think that it is highly unlikely that the inventory problem will be resolved in 2023.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">So what does this forecast mean for investors going into the fall-winter season, coupled with what we know about the changing behavior of homebuyers? It means that your behavior as an investor should change, too. If you are basing your investment decisions on the traditional expectation of a decline in demand as summer ends, you need to rethink your strategy.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Tap into those hot, affordable housing markets now while they are still hot and affordable. The fate of every real estate hot spot is to eventually become saturated and unaffordable\u2014that\u2019s when you may have trouble both selling and renting out. The time to buy real estate in the booming areas is right now.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Tapping into the current demand for bigger and better family housing in affordable areas is what many savvy investors are doing. Alison Williams, a Redfin Premier agent in Sacramento, one of the current hot real estate markets, says that some of her current clients are investors \u201cwho are looking to buy a home here and rent it out for a few years before moving in themselves.\u201d&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Under the current market conditions, it\u2019s wise to become an \u201canytime buyer\u201d as long as you know your plan for each property you invest in.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n    \n  <div id=\"visibility-group-block_1784b9bfa8914298d47126091ebe4f37\" class=\"visibility-group  hidden\">\n        \n\n<div id=\"hero-block_571dafe685e5bfed4b84e46a589e9c64\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4  alignwide   has-background has-theme-gold-light-background-color has-text-color has-theme-gold-color\">\n    <div\n        class=\" flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n\n        <div class=\"relative z-30 w-full \">\n            <main class=\"py-4\">\n                \n\n<p class=\"has-theme-gold-color has-text-color has-large-font-size\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:800\">Get the Best Loan Today<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-slate-900-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:16px\">Find trusted, <em><strong>investor-friendly<\/strong><\/em> lenders who specialize in your strategy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=button-custom-event-block_b3a0edb52ad51822c63303617b30b433 class='button-custom-event'>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/business\/finder\/lenders\" x-on:click=\"window.analytics.track(&#039;Blog Block | B2C Marketplace Lender Finder&#039;, {\n      referrer: &#039;https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/fall-winter-real-estate-market-2023&#039;,\n    });\" class=\" btn-shape inline-block no-underline has-background has-theme-gold-background-color has-text-color has-white-color\" target=\"_blank\">Find a Lender<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n\n            <\/main>\n        <\/div>\n\n                <div class=\" first:mt-0 relative h-full lg:flex lg:items-center\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"object-cover w-full relative z-20 my-0  rounded-md hidden lg:block\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Marketplace-Blog-Blocks-Lender-v3.png\" alt=\"investor friendly lender, investor friendly real estate loans\" title=\"\">\n        <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n  \n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n    \n  <div id=\"visibility-group-block_64dd31c79f00f\" class=\"visibility-group  \">\n        \n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"hero-block_64dd2875dba9d\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4    has-background has-slate-100-background-color has-text-color has-theme-slate-color\">\n    <div\n        class=\" flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n\n        <div class=\"relative z-30 w-full \">\n            <main class=\"py-4\">\n                \n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading my-0 tracking-tight font-extrabold has-theme-slate-dark-color has-text-color has-large-font-size\">Join the community<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-theme-slate-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Ready to succeed in real estate investing? Create a free BiggerPockets account to learn about investment strategies; ask questions and get answers from our community of +2 million members; connect with investor-friendly agents; and so much more. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=button-custom-event-block_64dd2888dba9e class='button-custom-event'>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/signup\" x-on:click=\"window.analytics.track(&#039;Blog Block | Acquisition | Free Membership Signup&#039;, {\n      referrer: &#039;https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/fall-winter-real-estate-market-2023&#039;,\n    });\" class=\" btn-shape inline-block no-underline has-background has-theme-blue-background-color has-text-color has-white-color\" target=\"_blank\">Sign Up<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n\n            <\/main>\n        <\/div>\n\n            <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stay ahead of the market. Here&#8217;s what real estate will look like for the next few months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":613618,"featured_media":160781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,7119],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-160779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-estate-trends","category-biggerpockets-daily"],"acf":[],"comment_count":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/613618"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=160779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160779\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/160781"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=160779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=160779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=160779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}