{"id":163321,"date":"2023-12-13T12:42:10","date_gmt":"2023-12-13T19:42:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/?p=163321"},"modified":"2023-12-13T12:42:13","modified_gmt":"2023-12-13T19:42:13","slug":"powell-tries-lowering-expectations-heading-into-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/powell-tries-lowering-expectations-heading-into-2024","title":{"rendered":"The Fed Is Trying Its Best To Lower Expectations in 2024 as Pundits Call for Rate Cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The year&#8217;s final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concluded with no changes to the federal funds rate.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This is now the third consecutive meeting that the Fed has held rates steady as they continue to hope that the previous rate hikes are still working their way through the economy\u2014and will be enough to cool inflation to that coveted 2%.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Looking at the&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=\/trading\/interest-rates\/countdown-to-fomc.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">CME Group FedWatch Tool<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, which uses futures investing to determine the probability of future Fed moves, the central bank will again hold rates steady at its January meeting. But by March or May, the chance of a rate cut soars, according to the tool. Though those probabilities are always in flux, at the time of writing, there was a 40% chance the Fed would lower rates in March, and by May, it\u2019s 73%.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It appears Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to temper those expectations, though\u2014at least if you listen to his most recent speech at Spelman College. Here\u2019s what he said\u2014and what other Fed members and economists are thinking about\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/federal-reserve-to-lower-rates-six-times-says-ing-economics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">interest rates as we head into the new year<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n  <div class=\"lg:block\" x-data=\"{ ad_block_block_657a080e1ccac: popAds(1) }\">\n      <template x-for=\"ad in ad_block_block_657a080e1ccac\">\n        <a\n          :href=\"ad.linkURL\"\n          class=\"no-underline text-black\"\n          x-on:click=\"adClicked('https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/powell-tries-lowering-expectations-heading-into-2024', ad.sponsor, ad.title, ad.id, 'blockAdClicked', 'blockAd', '')\"\n          target=\"_blank\">\n          <div\n            class=\"py-4 border-b flex flex-col flex-nowrap text-sm border-t px-0 rounded-none\"\n            x-init=\"\n              analytics.track('blockAdLoaded', {\n                referrer: 'https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/powell-tries-lowering-expectations-heading-into-2024',\n                sponsor: ad.sponsor,\n                ad_title: ad.title,\n                ad_page_location: ''\n              })\n            \"\n            x-intersect:enter.once=\"adViewed('https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/powell-tries-lowering-expectations-heading-into-2024', ad.sponsor, ad.title, ad.id, 'blockAdViewed', 'blockAd', '')\">\n            <div><span class=\"text-xs text-slate-light block bg-slate-50 p-1 inline-block rounded-md\">Sponsored<\/span><\/div>\n            <div class=\"flex items-center text-sm space-x-4\">\n                <img :src=\"ad.imageURL\" :alt=\"ad.imageAlt\" class=\"h-10 w-10 object-cover rounded-full\">\n\n                <div clas=\"text-sm\">\n                    <span class=\"font-bold block\" x-text=\"ad.sponsor\"><\/span>\n                    <span class=\"text-slate\/80\" x-text=\"ad.description\"><\/span>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div>\n                <span class=\"font-bold\" x-text=\"ad.title\"><\/span>\n                <p class=\"mt-2 text-slate\/80\" x-text=\"ad.body\"><\/p>\n                <span class=\"mt-2 text-themeBlue block mt-2 underline\" x-text=\"ad.linkTitle\"><\/span>\n            <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        <\/a>\n      <\/template>\n  <\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cRestrictive\u201d Was the Watchword<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Powell mentioned \u201crestrictive\u201d policies multiple times when addressing the Spelman audience\u2014a nod to the nearly dozen rate hikes the FOMC has voted for since early 2022.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">According to Powell, those rate hikes&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/powell20231201a.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">might not be the last<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. He said at the event:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cThe FOMC is strongly committed to bringing inflation down to 2% over time, and to keeping policy restrictive until we are confident that inflation is on a path to that objective. It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.\u201d<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Powell also noted that while the economy is \u201cmoving in the right direction,\u201d future policy moves will need to be handled carefully and as the data comes in.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cLet the data reveal the appropriate path,\u201d Powell said. \u201cWe don\u2019t need to be in a rush now, having moved quickly and forcefully. We\u2019re getting what we wanted to get. We now have the ability to move carefully.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Eyeing Midyear Rate Cuts<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Though Powell seems to want thoughts of any rate cuts squashed, other Fed members and financial pros aren\u2019t so certain. At a recent event,&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/feds-waller-increasingly-confident-policy-is-right-spot-2023-11-28\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;should inflation keep declining for a few more months, \u201cWe could start lowering the policy rate.\u201d That timing would align with\u2014as the FedWatch Tool\u2019s projections suggest \u2014 the Fed\u2019s March or May meetings in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Forecasters at Pantheon Macroeconomics predict the same. The group\u2019s December Economic Monitor shows the Fed will&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.inman.com\/2023\/12\/01\/fed-chair-powells-attempt-to-deflate-rate-cut-expectations-flops\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">lower its rate by 1.5%<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;next year, with rate cuts starting in March.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Finally, a&nbsp;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/12\/12\/fed-to-start-cutting-rates-midyear-in-2024-with-high-chance-of-soft-landing-cnbc-fed-survey-finds.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">CNBC Fed Survey of economists and financial analysts<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;points to rate cuts, though slightly later than other predictions\u2014possibly June or July.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Nationwide, told CNBC in response to the survey, \u201cThe markets have prematurely priced in high odds of rate cuts starting in Q1, but we do expect further steady disinflation will lead the Fed to begin rate cuts around midyear.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But all in all, it\u2019s the Fed that controls the lever here, not the forecasters.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n    \n  <div id=\"visibility-group-block_628c434d3544b550a984d3cca6697463\" class=\"visibility-group  hidden\">\n        \n\n<div id=\"hero-block_9990fffea30756629cdb057d1c309f0f\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4  alignwide   has-background has-theme-gold-light-background-color has-text-color has-theme-gold-color\">\n    <div\n        class=\" flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n\n        <div class=\"relative z-30 w-full \">\n            <main class=\"py-4\">\n                \n\n<p class=\"has-theme-gold-color has-text-color has-large-font-size\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:800\">Get the Best Loan Today<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-slate-900-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:16px\">Find trusted, <em><strong>investor-friendly<\/strong><\/em> lenders who specialize in your strategy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=button-custom-event-block_f801ba3188110051157f22d3d3179dc4 class='button-custom-event'>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/business\/finder\/lenders\" x-on:click=\"window.analytics.track(&#039;Blog Block | B2C Marketplace Lender Finder&#039;, {\n      referrer: &#039;https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/powell-tries-lowering-expectations-heading-into-2024&#039;,\n    });\" class=\" btn-shape inline-block no-underline has-background has-theme-gold-background-color has-text-color has-white-color\" target=\"_blank\">Find a Lender<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n\n            <\/main>\n        <\/div>\n\n                <div class=\" first:mt-0 relative h-full lg:flex lg:items-center\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"object-cover w-full relative z-20 my-0  rounded-md hidden lg:block\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Marketplace-Blog-Blocks-Lender-v3.png\" alt=\"investor friendly lender, investor friendly real estate loans\" title=\"\">\n        <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n  \n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n    \n  <div id=\"visibility-group-block_64dd31c79f00f\" class=\"visibility-group  \">\n        \n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"hero-block_64dd2875dba9d\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4    has-background has-slate-100-background-color has-text-color has-theme-slate-color\">\n    <div\n        class=\" flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n\n        <div class=\"relative z-30 w-full \">\n            <main class=\"py-4\">\n                \n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading my-0 tracking-tight font-extrabold has-theme-slate-dark-color has-text-color has-large-font-size\">Join the community<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-theme-slate-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Ready to succeed in real estate investing? Create a free BiggerPockets account to learn about investment strategies; ask questions and get answers from our community of +2 million members; connect with investor-friendly agents; and so much more. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=button-custom-event-block_64dd2888dba9e class='button-custom-event'>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/signup\" x-on:click=\"window.analytics.track(&#039;Blog Block | Acquisition | Free Membership Signup&#039;, {\n      referrer: &#039;https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/powell-tries-lowering-expectations-heading-into-2024&#039;,\n    });\" class=\" btn-shape inline-block no-underline has-background has-theme-blue-background-color has-text-color has-white-color\" target=\"_blank\">Sign Up<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n\n            <\/main>\n        <\/div>\n\n            <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After a few months of steady rates, pundits are ready to see them fall. The Fed might have other plans, though.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":613679,"featured_media":162776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7383],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-163321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics"],"acf":[],"comment_count":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/613679"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=163321"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163321\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/162776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=163321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=163321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=163321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}