{"id":181636,"date":"2025-03-14T15:06:15","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T21:06:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/?p=181636"},"modified":"2025-03-14T15:06:19","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T21:06:19","slug":"immigration-has-helped-boost-property-values-but-at-a-cost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/immigration-has-helped-boost-property-values-but-at-a-cost","title":{"rendered":"Immigration Policies Have Helped Boost Your Property Values\u2014But Not Without a Cost"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Immigration is a particularly contentious issue these days. It came in second amongst Republicans and fifth overall as the most <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">important<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> issue for voters <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/651719\/economy-important-issue-2024-presidential-vote.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">in the 2024 election<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. (Unsurprisingly, the economy came in first.)<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Immigration itself, however, is a broad term and can <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">really<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> be split into (at least) three subgroups: high-skilled immigration, low-skilled immigration, and illegal immigration.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The United States issues about <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/usafacts.org\/articles\/how-many-people-have-received-a-us-green-card\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">1 million green cards<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> (legal permanent residence) <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">per year<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> In 2022, there were 12.7 million lawful permanent residents in the United States, of which about <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2024\/09\/27\/key-findings-about-us-immigrants\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">1 million are granted citizenship each year<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> (after an arduous process). Currently, the foreign-born population in the United States <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/cis.org\/Report\/ForeignBorn-Population-Grew-51-Million-Last-Two-Years\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">stands at a record<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, both in terms of the number (51.5 million) and percent of the population (15.6%), with both of those numbers expected to increase in the years to come.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1647\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image3.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-181641\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image3.jpeg 1999w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image3-300x247.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image3-1024x844.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image3-768x633.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image3-1536x1266.jpeg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cis.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/cis.org\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Center for Immigration Studies<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Regarding illegal immigration, the population has moved substantially to the right on this issue over the past few years, with one <\/span><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">New York Times <\/span><\/em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">poll finding <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/18\/us\/politics\/trump-policies-immigration-tariffs-economy.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">that 55% of voters<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> support \u201cdeporting all immigrants who are here illegally.\u201d <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> includes <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/documenttools\/f548560f100205ef\/e656ddda-full.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">32% of Democrats<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, by the way. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Such a policy was once considered<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> extreme, but given the chaos on the southern border in 2022 and 2023, opinions shifted quite dramatically.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> is true even for legal immigration. <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/1660\/immigration.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">According to Gallup<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, in 2021, there was virtual parity between those who wanted to increase immigration and those who wanted to decrease immigration. In June 2024, 55% wanted immigration reduced, versus only 16% who wanted it increased.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Of course, such a policy would <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">have an enormous effect on<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the economy.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> The usually quoted number of 11 million illegal immigrants is almost certainly too low. Indeed, that\u2019s the same number that has <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">been given<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> since the early 2000s! A 2018 Yale study used mathematical models of various demographic data to estimate that there were <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.som.yale.edu\/insights\/yale-study-finds-twice-as-many-undocumented-immigrants-as-previous-estimates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">22.1 million immigrants<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> living in the country illegally at that time.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Between 2022 and 2023, the number of migrants illegally crossing the southern border skyrocketed. There were an unprecedented <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/02\/21\/us-news\/7-2m-illegals-entered-the-us-under-biden-admin-an-amount-greater-than-population-of-36-states\/?utm_campaign=nypost&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;jw_start=seek_to_second_number#!\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">7.2 million encounters<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> at the <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">southern<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> border, with 1.8 million known and likely millions of unknown \u201c<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">gotaways<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.\u201d Indeed, it got so bad that even liberal bastions such as New York were complaining about <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/09\/07\/eric-adams-migrants-new-york-city-00114437\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">being unable to handle the influx<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Congressional Budget Office<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/publication\/60569#_idTextAnchor012\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> concluded that<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> \u201cthe net immigration of other foreign nationals exceeds that rate by <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">a total of<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> 8.7 million people over the 2021-2026 period.\u201d Thus, in all likelihood, <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">there are somewhere between 25 million and 30 million people living<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> in the United States illegally.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Deporting at least 5% and possibly almost 10% of your population would be incredibly difficult, prone to abuse, and would almost certainly throw the United States into a recession. (Although <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">it should be noted<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> that the Dominican Republic <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/01\/02\/americas\/dominican-republic-deport-haitians-intl-latam\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">did something like this<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> in 2024 without much media attention.) Of course, in contrast to the acute problems such deportations would cause the economy, such <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">large<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> levels of illegal immigration can create chronic economic <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">problems<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, which will be discussed, along with the benefits and costs of legal migration, particularly for the real estate industry.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">First, however, we should address Donald Trump\u2019s policies regarding immigration. It will likely aggravate those on both sides of the aisle to say so, but it\u2019s <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">quite<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> clear that most of what Trump\u2019s administration has done thus far is merely theatrical.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Trump\u2019s Mostly Rhetorical Immigration Crackdown<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/us-news\/dr-phil-embedded-immigration-authorities-ice-action-chicago-rcna189519\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Dr. Phil tagging along for a televised ICE raid<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> might make for an entertaining (or disturbing?) video, but it\u2019s hardly emblematic of what is <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">currently<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> happening. No, the deep state is not being rooted out, nor is a fascist government <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">being erected<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. But the 24\/7 news cycle is certainly being filled.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In fact\u2014contrary to a fake chart claiming that the daily encounters of migrants at the border <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2025\/02\/04\/mass-deportations-trumps-pr-blitz-00202390\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">were somehow negative<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u2014the Trump administration is <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/trump-set-broaden-arrests-deportation-routes-expand-immigration-crackdown-2025-02-21\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">on pace to deport fewer people<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> in 2025 than the Biden administration did in 2024. The incredible surge happened in 2022 and 2023. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In 2024, Biden tightened <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">up<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> border security, <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2025\/03\/04\/illegal-border-crossings-february-decline-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">which <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">has<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> continued<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> into 2025 under Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"779\" height=\"553\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image5.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-181643\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image5.jpeg 779w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image5-300x213.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image5-768x545.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 779px) 100vw, 779px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2025\/03\/04\/illegal-border-crossings-february-decline-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Axios<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In fact,<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> ICE has <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">apparently<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> marked almost every press release of a <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">major<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> immigration raid as \u201c<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2025\/feb\/06\/ice-us-immigration-deportations-google\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Updated: 01\/24\/2025<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">,\u201d making any Google search look, depending on your perspective, as if law and order <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">has<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> finally returned or a fascist police state has <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">been<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> erected<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, while <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">really<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> nothing out of the ordinary has <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">actually<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> taken place.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For example, I searched \u201cbig ICE arrests,\u201d and the second result was a press release from ICE <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ice.gov\/news\/releases\/ice-arrests-more-1700-during-largest-ever-nationwide-gang-surge-4-month-long\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">stating<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, \u201cICE arrests more than 1,700 during largest-ever nationwide gang surge.\u201d <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">At the bottom, it notes the story <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">was updated<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> on 01\/24\/2025, but it <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">actually<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> happened on Sept. 30, 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As for Trump\u2019s flurry of executive orders, all of them on immigration have <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/national-news\/articles\/tracking-the-legal-challenges-to-trumps-executive-orders\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">been blocked<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> by injunctions<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. The most newsworthy one\u2014ending birthright citizenship\u2014while <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.heritage.org\/immigration\/commentary\/birthright-citizenship-fundamental-misunderstanding-the-14th-amendment\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">much more defensible<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> than most pundits say (and what\u2019s <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/qz.com\/1444724\/mapping-the-worlds-countries-that-grant-birthright-citizenship\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">most common throughout the world<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">) will almost certainly be <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2024-election\/litigation-certainty-trumps-call-end-birthright-citizenship-face-mount-rcna162314\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">overturned by the Supreme Court<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">With that out of the way, let us now look at how immigration\u2014both legal and illegal\u2014affects the economy in general and real estate in particular.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Immigration and the Economy<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Right off the bat, immigration\u2019s <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">effects on the economy<\/span> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">are muddled<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> by the difficulty of assessing causation. For example, when free-market economist Milton Friedman was making the case for laissez-faire, he <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/miltonfriedman.hoover.org\/internal\/media\/dispatcher\/215111\/full\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">would often say<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> how people \u201cvote with their feet.\u201d In other words, people tend to move to places that are doing well economically in search of opportunities. So, countries doing well are (more likely) to seek immigrants, and migrants are more likely to want to go to such countries.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Thus, almost by definition, countries with a lot of immigration do better economically than countries without. But what is the cause? Does the economy bring immigrants, or do immigrants improve the economy? Both, perhaps?&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">More accurately, it depends\u2014both on that country\u2019s situation and regarding whom you are speaking of. As with most things, immigration has both winners and losers.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Ironically, the broad economic effects of immigration are contrary to the <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">economic<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> priorities of the parties that ostensibly want more or less immigration. Republicans tend to prioritize economic growth over equality, which liberalized immigration policies encourage. Democrats prioritize equality and poverty alleviation, which large-scale immigration undermines. (Although, of course, this has nothing to do with the desires of any individual immigrant.)&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There are certainly some exceptions. A good number of those on the libertarian right (like the Cato Institute and the Koch brothers) <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">basically<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> support open borders, and Bernie Sanders, at least used to <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">be,<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> a skeptic, calling \u201copen borders\u201d a \u201c<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=vf-k6qOfXz0&amp;t=1s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Koch brothers proposal<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But today, Senator Sanders has moved to where most liberals are. Such liberals tend to discuss the humanitarian aspects of a more open immigration system but <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">also<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> note what some libertarians emphasize: the boon to GDP immigration provides. Free market economist Michael Clemens describes a highly liberalized immigration system as \u201c<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/pubs.aeaweb.org\/doi\/pdfplus\/10.1257\/jep.25.3.83\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">trillion-dollar bills on the sidewalk<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201d:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cFor labor mobility barriers, the estimated gains are often <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">in the range of<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> 50%\u2013150% of world GDP. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In fact,<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> existing estimates suggest that even small reductions in the barriers to labor mobility bring enormous gains. In the studies of Table 1, the gains from <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">complete<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> elimination of migration barriers are only realized with epic movements of people\u2014at least half the population of <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">poor countries<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> would need to move to rich countries. But migration need not be that large <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">in order to<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> bring vast gains.\u201d<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There\u2019s no doubt that<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> people moving from low-income to high-income countries will boost the GDP of the country being immigrated to, and almost by default, the world GDP as well.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> However, there\u2019s a lot wrong with this analysis.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For one,<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> to judge a country\u2019s economic health, we should look at GDP per capita more than GDP in general.<\/span> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">If <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">both<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the population and GDP go up 5%, no one is <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">any<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> better off than before.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Second, we should <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">be looking<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> at <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/updates\/purchasing-power-parity-ppp\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">purchasing power parity<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, not just GDP. (Poor countries are cheaper to live in than rich countries).&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But more importantly, such economists tend to hold things constant, assuming immigration won\u2019t affect the underlying dynamics of an economy and society. In his paper, Clemens notes that \u201cmore than 40% of adults in the poorest quartile of countries \u2018would like to move permanently to another country.\u2019\u201d That is over 1 billion people. Would simply relocating them all massively increase GDP? <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Or would it<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, more likely,<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> cause the infrastructure to collapse and break the country <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">up<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> into civil war?<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Such destabilizations are not unprecedented. Indeed, the <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/unherd.com\/2024\/03\/the-most-important-immigration-story-of-all\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">V\u00f6lkerwanderung <\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">of Germanic peoples into the Roman Empire <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">is partially credited<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> by many historians for the collapse of the (Western) Empire in 476. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">With a more moderate influx, we would likely <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">just<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> see a stress on civil services, which we have seen <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/illegal-immigration-surge-has-cost-these-swing-state-taxpayers-billions-study-says-cffadea1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">in multiple states<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The dynamics of the countries being emigrated from should also be considered<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. The so-called \u201c<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/fandd\/1999\/06\/carringt.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">brain drain<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201d can harm <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">poor countries<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> as many of their brightest move abroad.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Immigration as a poverty relief mechanism is also woefully inadequate. Roy Beck\u2019s <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=LPjzfGChGlE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">gumball demonstration<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> makes this quite apparent, as even the 1 million immigrants brought into the United States is nowhere near enough to even slightly ameliorate the condition of the 3 billion people worldwide making less than $2 a day.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The conclusion for rich countries also seems highly questionable. For example, China has seen enormous economic growth\u2014<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wenzelamerica.com\/american-manufacturing-is-alive-and-still-doing-very-well\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">way outpacing the United States<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u2014despite having a net immigration rate of &#8211;<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.migrationpolicy.org\/country-resource\/china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">0.1%<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"545\" height=\"389\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image6.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-181644\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image6.jpeg 545w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image6-300x214.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 545px) 100vw, 545px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wenzelamerica.com\/american-manufacturing-is-alive-and-still-doing-very-well\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wenzel America<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/sites\/default\/files\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/WP-2019-09-China-final.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">same comparison<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> could be made<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> between China and <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/commission.europa.eu\/strategy-and-policy\/priorities-2019-2024\/promoting-our-european-way-life\/statistics-migration-europe_en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the European Union<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In addition, we could look at American history, where economic growth was <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">extremely<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> robust during <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/United_States_immigration_statistics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the migration boom of the mid-to-late 19th century<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, the lull between 1924 and 1965 when <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">immigration was notably restricted<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, and afterward when <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">it was once again liberalized<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The connection between immigration and economic growth is muddled, to say the least. However<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, still<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, most research concludes that increased immigration <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/research\/economics\/2024\/0702\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">increases economic output<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The downstream effects are more notable. A <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">basic<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> analysis of supply and demand would conclude that increasing the supply of something\u2014in this case, labor\u2014would decrease <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">its<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> demand and thereby put downward pressure on wages.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A common complaint from many corporate lobbies is that they \u201cneed more labor.\u201d <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This<\/span> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">is most commonly heard<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> regarding STEM professions. But labor is (mostly) like any other good. If you want more labor, you could always raise the price, i.e., wages. Likewise, it shouldn\u2019t be surprising <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">to find<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> that the <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/issues.org\/stem-workforce-shortage-data-hira\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">supposed STEM shortage is a myth<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">One could counter that immigrants also become job creators. However, such immigrants would rarely become job creators <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the moment<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> they stepped off the boat. So, for any equilibrium effect on employment between immigrant employees and employers to be reached, immigration would have to stop (or be reduced) for <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">a period of time<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. Anne Case and Angus Deaton reluctantly concluded this was plausible in their book <\/span><em><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Deaths-Despair-Future-Capitalism-Anne\/dp\/069119078X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Deaths of Despair<\/span><\/a><\/em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, which was otherwise pro-immigration.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Indeed, <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/ImmigrationFacts_Web_1008_540pm.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">most studies<\/span><\/a> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">tend to<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> find this effect, but only amongst low-skilled workers and only to a small degree, usually less than 1%.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"714\" height=\"409\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image4.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-181642\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image4.jpeg 714w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image4-300x172.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 714px) 100vw, 714px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/ImmigrationFacts_Web_1008_540pm.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Brookings Institute<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">However, it\u2019s more complicated than this when you dig deeper and look at longer-term effects, particularly in industries with a large percentage of immigrant labor. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It\u2019s hard to explain various anomalies, like <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the fact that slaughterhouses pay<\/span> <a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/cis.org\/Book-Discussion-Transcript-Progressive-Argument-Reducing-US-Immigration\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">44% less<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> today than they did in 1970, looking at the studies above.<\/span> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Liberal economist Paul Krugman <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2006\/03\/27\/opinion\/north-of-the-border.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">pointed out<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> back in 2006 that it was \u201cintellectually dishonest\u201d to <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">simply<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> say immigrations \u201c\u2018do the jobs that Americans will not do.\u2019\u201d<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cThe willingness of Americans to do a job depends on how much that job pays\u2014and the reason some jobs pay too little to attract native-born Americans is competition from poorly paid immigrants.\u201d<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Harvard economist George Borjas\u2019 <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2016\/09\/trump-clinton-immigration-economy-unemployment-jobs-214216\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">research has found that<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> \u201cwage trends over the past half-century suggest that a 10% increase in the number of workers with a particular set of skills probably lowers the wage of that group by at least 3%.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"570\" height=\"486\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image1.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-181639\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image1.jpeg 570w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image1-300x256.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 570px) 100vw, 570px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>George Borjas, <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/system\/files\/working_papers\/w25836\/w25836.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Immigration and Economic Growth<\/em><\/a><em>, NBER Working Papers<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Overall, Borjas found that in 2015, immigration increased the nation\u2019s wealth by <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.judiciary.senate.gov\/imo\/media\/doc\/03-16-16%20Borjas%20Testimony.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">$2.1 trillion<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. However, 98% of that went to the immigrants themselves, leaving the rest of the <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">nation<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> with about $50 billion above what they would have otherwise had. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> sounds perfectly fine, except the problem is there was a transfer of $515 billion from native workers to their employers.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There are many reasons why productivity and wages <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.epi.org\/productivity-pay-gap\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">have decoupled<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, and wages have been relatively flat for many years <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">now<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. And immigration is by no means the <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">biggest<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> cause. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Outsourcing <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/bfi.uchicago.edu\/insight\/research-summary\/outsourcing-inequality-and-aggregate-output\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">has had a similar effect<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, and technology is <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/01\/11\/technology\/income-inequality-technology.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">probably<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">biggest<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> contributor<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, among many other factors.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> But immigration has <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">clearly<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> contributed.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Immigration and Society<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">major<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> problem with the immigration debate is that it lumps every immigrant together into one amorphous blob despite the many different attributes of the many <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">different<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> immigrants. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Indeed, <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/iir.gmu.edu\/publications\/nobelprize\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">148 Nobel Prize winners were immigrants<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> to the United States<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, as well as<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the founders or parents of the founders of <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org\/research\/new-american-fortune-500-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">46%<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> of Fortune 500 companies.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">On the other hand, all 19 9\/11 hijackers were in the country on visas of one sort or the other, and the various ethnic mafias that terrorized many cities throughout much of the 20th century came over in the wave of immigration in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Another problem is that the effects of policy (say, the mess at the border between 2022 and 2023) get blamed on people, namely, the immigrants themselves, who are usually just trying to make a better life for themselves and their families, and nothing to do with whatever nonsense was going on in Washington at the time.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Immigration does open a country up to new cultures, foods, and music, adding to the mosaic of our daily lives. Unfortunately, large-scale immigration likely <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/figure\/Forest-plot-of-study-pooled-estimates-of-the-relationship-between-ethnic-diversity-and_fig1_335924797\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">reduces social capital<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> (people\u2019s network of relationships), at least for a time. If done poorly, it can create ethnic ghettos <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">of<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> what amounts to parallel societies within the same area.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">We saw this in the early 20th century (e.g., Little Italy, Chinatown, etc.). These ethnic groups amalgamated into a more cohesive whole during the mid-to-late 20th century, but today, we again see <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/graphics\/2018\/national\/segregation-us-cities\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">significant ethnic segregation<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> in most American municipalities.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Fortunately, in the U.S. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">at least<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, immigrants commit <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cato.org\/blog\/yes-youre-still-imagining-migrant-crime-spree-response-steven-malanga-migrant-crime\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">substantially less crime than native-born citizens<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> even includes illegal immigrants. Unfortunately, part of the reason for this is that immigrants tend to be older than the most criminally inclined cohort (<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ppic.org\/publication\/are-younger-generations-committing-less-crim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">men between the ages of 15 and 25<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">).&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The median age of a green card recipient <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/ohss.dhs.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-09\/2024_0906_plcy_lawful_permanent_residents_fy2023.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">is 35 years old<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. What we see with second-generation Americans is that their crime rate i<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">s\u2026a<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">lmost <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2013\/10\/15\/crime-rises-among-second-generation-immigrants-as-they-assimilate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">exactly<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the same as the rest of Americans<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The median age of an immigrant in the United States is <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.migrationpolicy.org\/article\/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">47 years old versus 37<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> for native-born Americans. While that\u2019s not a problem in and of itself, it does mean that our already underfunded entitlement systems will be stressed further by large-scale immigration.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Thus, while legal immigrants tend to have <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/manhattan.institute\/article\/the-lifetime-fiscal-impact-of-immigrants#:~:text=Under%20the%20absolute%20impact%20scenario,have%20a%20negative%20fiscal%20impact.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">a positive fiscal impact<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> (at least those with a college degree), given the age distribution of new green card recipients, immigration itself won\u2019t help alleviate the <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/us-budget-deficit-tops-18-trillion-fiscal-2024-third-largest-record-2024-10-18\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">large fiscal imbalances<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> we already have once more start retiring. Immigrants who come to the United States unlawfully tend to have a decidedly negative fiscal impact and exacerbate it.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Immigration and Real Estate<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">That said, immigration\u2019s effects on the real estate market can\u2014as with the economy in general\u2014<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">be seen<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> in either a positive or negative light. As <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/how-the-immigration-crisis-impacts-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Lindsay Frankel wrote on BiggerPockets<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cWhen immigrants move into a community, the demand for housing goes up. The expanded population also supports <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">an increase in<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> economic activity due to more demand for local goods and services. As a result, home values rise.\u201d<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/housingmatters.urban.org\/research-summary\/how-does-immigration-united-states-affect-countrys-housing-market\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">One study<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> she cites notes, \u201cAn increase in the number of immigrants equal to 1% of an MSA\u2019s total population <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">was linked<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> with a 0.8% increase in rents and a 0.8% increase in home prices.\u201d Furthermore, \u201c[t]his same increase in immigrants was associated with a 1.6% rise in rents and a 9.6% rise in home prices in surrounding MSAs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Is this good or bad? <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Well,<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> it\u2019s <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">good<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> for homeowners and municipalities who see their wealth and property tax receipts go up.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> On the other hand, it\u2019s bad for renters and aspiring buyers who must pay more for rent and find it more <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">difficult<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> to buy. (<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It should be noted<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> that <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/worldcrunch.com\/business-finance\/young-homeownership-world\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">homeownership amongst the young<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> is the lowest it has been in many decades, with <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/what-we-learned-about-housing-affordability-from-the-election\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">affordability<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the primary reason.)<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Like with the economy in general, immigration tends to boost economic growth but benefits capital over labor.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Home prices in the United States have <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">almost doubled in the last 10 years<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, and indeed, this is a phenomenon that has been <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/topics\/en\/article\/20241014STO24542\/rising-housing-costs-in-the-eu-the-facts-infographics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">seen throughout Europe<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1156\" height=\"1156\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image2.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-181640\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image2.jpeg 1156w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image2-300x300.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image2-1024x1024.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image2-150x150.jpeg 150w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image2-768x768.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image2-200x200.jpeg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1156px) 100vw, 1156px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/topics\/en\/article\/20241014STO24542\/rising-housing-costs-in-the-eu-the-facts-infographics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">European Parliament<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Many European countries have taken in many immigrants in the last decade, but not all <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">of them<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> have. Hungary, for example, took in relatively few, yet was No. 1 in housing price increase at 172.5%. So, this is by no means a 1-to-1 correlation.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There are many reasons for these price increases (including <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/how-did-the-housing-market-get-so-hot\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">insufficient new construction<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">). Furthermore, something like <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jchs.harvard.edu\/blog\/role-recent-immigrant-surge-housing-costs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">34% of construction workers<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> are immigrants, which would make any large-scale deportations slow an increase in new supply that could alleviate high housing prices.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Final Thoughts<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Immigration has a lot of varying effects on an economy, good and bad. Overall, immigration has played an <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">important<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> role in American history, and immigrants have played a valuable role in our society. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">That said, <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">there are<\/span> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">serious<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> costs to large-scale migration <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">that<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> need to <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">be considered<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> when making policy.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The mess at the border in 2022 and 2023 was indefensible, and <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the border should be secured<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> and illegal immigration curtailed. As for legal immigration, we have experienced one of the <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">largest<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> movements of people in history over three consecutive generations. And now, with <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/explodingtopics.com\/blog\/ai-replacing-jobs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">artificial intelligence (AI) threatening many jobs<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> among the young and low-income (so far), we should be very concerned about an admittedly yet-to-materialize labor glut that could cause <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">all sorts of<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> economic pain and social problems.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As an owner of real estate, upward pressure on prices has <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">certainly<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> benefited me personally. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But the affordability crisis is causing widespread social harm, and addressing it in multiple ways is<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, in my judgment,<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the appropriate response.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">That being said, when it comes to immigration policy, there are many pluses and minuses to consider, and despite the heated rhetoric on both sides, <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">rarely<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> a simple answer. We should all do our best to remember that.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"hero-block_f969aaf682ac9d124195bebe977d27d4\" class=\"first:mt-0 hero-block py-4  alignfull   has-background has-slate-50-background-color has-text-color has-theme-gold-color\">\n    <div\n        class=\"gap-10 lg:gap-20 flex flex-wrap lg:flex-nowrap max-w-screen-xl mx-auto px-4 relative lg:items-center \">\n\n        <div class=\"relative z-30 lg:w-1\/2 \">\n            <main class=\"py-4\">\n                \n\n<p class=\"has-slate-800-color has-text-color has-large-font-size\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:800\">Find the Hottest Markets of 2025!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"my-3 md:my-5 lg:my-8 has-slate-900-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:18px\">Effortlessly discover your next investment hotspot with the brand new BiggerPockets Market Finder, featuring detailed metrics and insights for all U.S. markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=button-custom-event-block_fa51330e2524a3cc39249f1779005954 class='button-custom-event'>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/markets\" x-on:click=\"window.analytics.track(&#039;Blog Block | Market Finder&#039;, {\n      referrer: &#039;https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/immigration-has-helped-boost-property-values-but-at-a-cost&#039;,\n    });\" class=\" btn-shape inline-block no-underline has-background has-theme-gold-background-color has-text-color has-white-color\" target=\"_blank\">Explore Markets<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n\n            <\/main>\n        <\/div>\n\n                <div class=\"lg:w-1\/2 first:mt-0 relative h-full lg:flex lg:items-center\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"object-cover w-full relative z-20 my-0  rounded-md\" src=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Market-Finder_Site-Module-1.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\">\n        <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Immigration is a particularly contentious issue these days. It came in second amongst Republicans and fifth overall as the most important issue for voters in the 2024 election. (Unsurprisingly, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1689,"featured_media":181626,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4433,7384],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-181636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","category-politics-policy"],"acf":[],"comment_count":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/181636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1689"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=181636"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/181636\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/181626"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=181636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=181636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=181636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}