{"id":183415,"date":"2025-06-20T11:10:14","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T17:10:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/?p=183415"},"modified":"2025-06-20T11:10:16","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T17:10:16","slug":"the-worrying-economic-fallout-of-the-iran-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/the-worrying-economic-fallout-of-the-iran-conflict","title":{"rendered":"The Worrying Economic Fallout of the Iran Conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Whenever war breaks out, the most important consideration by far should always be for the people who are killed or wounded in the conflict. Economic considerations are, and should always be, secondary. However, it\u2019s still important to understand what is likely to happen if the conflict between Israel and Iran continues, especially if the United States gets involved. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On June 13, despite <\/span>another round of nuclear talks <\/span>being scheduled<\/span><\/a> for the upcoming weekend, <\/span>Israel launched a surprise attack<\/span><\/a> on the Iranian regime, taking out numerous top generals, <\/span>nuclear<\/span> scientists, and numerous <\/span>important<\/span> facilities with a combination of spies and assets it had smuggled into the country in an aerial campaign. Iran <\/span>has since retaliated <\/span><\/a>and been able to break through Israel\u2019s Iron Dome on numerous occasions with its ballistic missiles. At the same time, Israel has continued to strike targets inside Iran as both sides make increasingly bellicose claims against each other.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States has, thus far, only provided defensive and intelligence support to Israel<\/span>, but President<\/span> Trump has clearly stated <\/span>he is considering strikes on Iran<\/span><\/a>, particularly the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant buried deep inside a mountain. He\u2019s also demanded \u201c<\/span>unconditional surrender<\/span><\/a>,\u201d while Benjamin Netanyahu has <\/span>hinted at the goal of regime change<\/span><\/a>. However, as of this writing, the United States has not chosen to attack Iranian targets directly.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Has the Effect Been So Far?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The <\/span>biggest<\/span> effect economically<\/span> thus far has been a <\/span>marked<\/span> increase in the price of oil.<\/span> Since June 13, oil prices have increased 10.4% from $66.90 per barrel to <\/span>$73.85 per barrel<\/span><\/a>. <\/span>This<\/span> is <\/span>almost certainly<\/span> based predominantly on fear of the future rather than actual supply shortages.<\/span> So, a<\/span> quick resolution to the war would likely bring prices back down.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"oil
Google Finance<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As of now, it\u2019s unlikely oil deliveries will be substantially affected. <\/span>But<\/span> that could change <\/span>very<\/span> dramatically if the war becomes a protracted affair, <\/span>and<\/span> especially if the United States <\/span>gets<\/span> involved.<\/span> But<\/span> before analyzing that possibility, we should <\/span>do<\/span> a <\/span>quick<\/span> review of recent history.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Brief Recap of Recent American Interventions<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If the success of American military interventions in the last 25 years <\/span>were measured<\/span> as an investment strategy, it would amount to something like putting all of your savings into FTX circa mid-2022. They go like this:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n