Where should I Invest now that Florida is going down hill?

[Wayne Hayward]

 I am still looking for my first flip. Florida's RE market is in a freefall. Do I want to keep looking in my local market or should I consider out of state markets? I don't see the ability to make a profit in this market. 

Please advise. 

Wayne Hayward

[Li Warren]

Start local and/or familiar is some advice I am following. I live in a very expensive market, but I am also familiar with a couple other markets.

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Wayne Hayward:

 I am still looking for my first flip. Florida's RE market is in a freefall. Do I want to keep looking in my local market or should I consider out of state markets? I don't see the ability to make a profit in this market. 

Please advise. 

Wayne Hayward

by down hill can you elaborate more on that.  are pricing dropping or is it sociodemographic down hill slide ?

[Jon A.]

@Wayne hayward I can't speak to the specifics of your market, but in general we're not in the part of the market cycle where it's a good idea to do your first flip. Unless this is money you can stand to lose.

[Henry Lazerow]

Florida is barely falling to flat, prices arent tanking. Similar to most of US. Only place with significant declines is San Francisco as its so tech heavy and even then 2.9% month over month isn’t what I call free fall. Look at the actual data and ignore the news. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Wayne Hayward:

 I am still looking for my first flip. Florida's RE market is in a freefall. Do I want to keep looking in my local market or should I consider out of state markets? I don't see the ability to make a profit in this market. 

Please advise. 

Wayne Hayward

just wait til q2 2023 to be safe and reasses the situation, problem is not location, time is the problem.

[Nathan Gesner]

Quote from @Wayne Hayward:

 I am still looking for my first flip. Florida's RE market is in a freefall. Do I want to keep looking in my local market or should I consider out of state markets? I don't see the ability to make a profit in this market. 

Please advise. 

Wayne Hayward

The market is not "tanking" but it is slowing down and/or dropping. The market peaked in June and my guess is we'll see prices drop 10% - 20% below that before we hit bottom. Experts are more optimistic and predict 10% or less. Either way, we are seeing the market reverse and need to be cautious.

A flip requires you to purchase below market, renovate, and sell at market. That's hard to predict in a declining market, even for an experienced flipper. I would give it another six months to see what happens with the market, interest rates, and the economy in general.

[Wayne Hayward]

Prices. Thank you for your prompt reply. I appreciate it.

Wayne Hayward

[Wayne Hayward]

Thank you All. Coaching well received. I am new to this and value all of your advice collectively. I am grateful to the BiggerPockets community for participating and helping newcomers like me. Together we can all achieve greatness! I wish all of you and your loved ones good health and continued success in all your endeavors. 

Wayne Hayward

[Masashi Borges-Silva]

Hi @Wayne Hayward, and welcome to the BP forum!

I understand the concern, and it isn't easy to time the market. However, I am unsure if anyone can accurately predict the price change.  I had the same ideas as you, and I learned how to find a deal that makes money despite the economy that is out of our control.  I believe the Buy and Flip strategy works well for upward market trends, but not so much in the current market as @Nathan Gesner mentioned.  

So, the question is, what are other options?  If I assume you can do other options than Buy and Flip, would you consider other options such as Short-term, mid-term, and long-term rental?  Maybe you have ideas for short-term and long-term, but mid-term rental is also catching my attention.  The mid-term rental combines short-term rental (i.e., Airbnb) and long-term rental.  The mid-term rental would target traveling nurses, doctors, and people on business trips.   podcast might help you understand how mid-term rental works.

Another way to find out, if I were you to search for answers in books.  I know the eyes are quickly rolling back, but hang on a minute! Haha, There are some excellent books, such as Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing by J. Scott.  Another book I recommend is The book on Tax Strategies for the Savvy Real Estate Investors by Amanda Han and Matt MacFarland. But trust me, I am not paid to recommend books by BP (yet), haha.

Good luck on the real estate journey, and let me know what you think about the different strategies or books!

[Eliott Elias]

This is how I am finding deals. %70*ARV(2021 comps pre covid) - repairs. I believe the market will go back down to pre covid levels and am buying according to those values. Not the case for every market

[Wayne Hayward]

Thank you all for your valued advise. I will take it all into consideration. May you all have continued success and i wish you and your loved ones the best of health and happiness.

Wayne Hayward