Evaluating non-profitable MHP
Hello Bigger Pockets. I am attempting to get a deal under contract for a mobile home park, however I am struggling with how to evaluate it.
Using the standard MPH evaluation formula found in the BP forums prices the property extremely low because it is not currently profitable. I asked the realtor if the seller would consider an offer significantly lower than asking and he laughed and gave me the classic "hell, I'd buy it myself if it was priced any lower!"
I know he's got it priced high and when I asked how he got that number, he just said he "knows someone will buy it for that price" I know the seller is in danger of foreclosure soon as well.
The problem is this specific MHP had horrible management coupled with a natural disaster that hit the area a few years ago causing homeowners in the area to move away. So this property is not profitable at all. However, the area will be in demand in the next year or two which is why I know it is a great investment for the right price. I just don't know what the right price is.
Quote from @Sawyer Scott:
Hello Bigger Pockets. I am attempting to get a deal under contract for a mobile home park, however I am struggling with how to evaluate it.
Using the standard MPH evaluation formula found in the BP forums prices the property extremely low because it is not currently profitable. I asked the realtor if the seller would consider an offer significantly lower than asking and he laughed and gave me the classic "hell, I'd buy it myself if it was priced any lower!"
I know he's got it priced high and when I asked how he got that number, he just said he "knows someone will buy it for that price" I know the seller is in danger of foreclosure soon as well.
The problem is this specific MHP had horrible management coupled with a natural disaster that hit the area a few years ago causing homeowners in the area to move away. So this property is not profitable at all. However, the area will be in demand in the next year or two which is why I know it is a great investment for the right price. I just don't know what the right price is.
I've got similar questions about one that I'm looking at. I'd love to see any info you're able to collect if you're interested in sharing. I've received no response to my post about this topic.
Find what you expect the terminal value to be and back into a price from there. Back of the envelope example:
50lots x $400 lot rent x 12 with 40% expense ratio at a 10 CAP = $1.44 mil. Say you have $500k in capital improvements to get there, then go ahead and offer a bit under a million for it. This at least gets you in the ballpark.
Financing is another issue if there’s no cash flow day 1.
