How big will the nest Real Estate downturn be 10%-55%?

12 Replies

The last downturn here in SoCal was about 55%, yep people lost 55% of their value in their Real Estate holdings.

A $500k home went down to $250k or less on the average.

Now is your time to contribute your opinion, we are closer to the top than the bottom, when a correction occures will it be : 5%,10%, 20%, 30%, 40% , 50%, 60% or more?

Most importantly, how much of a downturn can you handle and for how long? 

Are you liquid enough to handle it? 

lot harder to get loans this time around....

 First off I will start by saying I do not think we are all going to be crashing anytime soon. 

Next is you're talking about California which traditionally has larger ups and downs so that market will potentially see a larger downturn.  I think overall nationwide out next downturn will be more of a minor downturn in the 10-20% range

@AL DURAN I think we will see different numbers depending on where you are in the country. During the last downturn, I was in Newport Beach, CA and the downturn was minimal compared to other areas in Orange County like Santa Ana, Fullerton, etc. The Midwest shouldn't see much of a dip dollar wise but because everything there is extremely cheap it will reflect as a higher percentage drop.

10% OF $700k , $70k

20% OF $700K , $140K

10% OF $700k , $70k

20% OF $700K , $140K

30% OF $700k , $210k

40% OF $700k , $280k

50% OF $700k , $350k

60% OF $700k , $420k

70% OF $700k , $490k

80% OF $700k , $560k

90% OF $700k , $630k

100% OF $700k , $700k

But I'm going to hold out for

110% OF $700k , $770k

I'm gonna buy with two fists when the market crashes 110%.

Every topic of this nature is started from the golden/sunny state of CA

Originally posted by @Dan Schwartz :

30% OF $700k , $210k

40% OF $700k , $280k

50% OF $700k , $350k

60% OF $700k , $420k

70% OF $700k , $490k

80% OF $700k , $560k

90% OF $700k , $630k

100% OF $700k , $700k

But I'm going to hold out for

110% OF $700k , $770k

I'm gonna buy with two fists when the market crashes 110%.

As sarcastic as this may be, for all we know we could be at 110% right now

Studied/ analyzed the market during the downturn...Purchased RE as the market improved. Comparing experiences....Lending institutions tightened lending requirements which has given the market a better foundation. Correction in my opinion?  < 20% tops!

If correction happen in year 2019, 10% drop.

If correction happen in year 2020, 15% drop.

If correction happen in year 2021, 20% drop.

If correction happen in year 2022, 25% drop.

If correction happen in year 2023, 30% drop.

If correction happen in year 2024, 35% drop.

Today price (year 2017) is the bottom of the price after coming peak.

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