Looking for Feedback on This Market Data

26 Replies

Hey everyone, 

I'm hoping to get some feedback from the community about this content. 

This is a really in depth market analysis. It happens to be of the Dallas metro area, but even if you're not interested in investing in Dallas, take a look! I am hoping to understand if this type of data an analysis is useful to the BP community, and your opinion is really important. 

If you do take a look at this report, please take 3 minutes and fill out this survey! It would be a huge help to us here on the BP team. 

Thank you! 

@Dave Meyer while interesting at first glance, that report is 73 pages.  that's a little bit too long, IMHO.  And frankly, while I can see a large market for this kind of info (especially here on BP) I believe it will lead to a lot of people being paralyzed by analysis.  TOO MUCH INFO, even though it's all very fascinating and whatnot.  

I have to agree with Patrick. I got 5 pages in and I was like whoa. Is that really true? 

I stopped right there and realized it would take me HOURS on end to read it and fact check it and understand your research vs everybody else's research. 

The 70+ pages are insane.

Originally posted by @Dave Meyer :

Hey everyone, 

I'm hoping to get some feedback from the community about this content. 

This is a really in depth market analysis. It happens to be of the Dallas metro area, but even if you're not interested in investing in Dallas, take a look! I am hoping to understand if this type of data an analysis is useful to the BP community, and your opinion is really important. 

If you do take a look at this report, please take 3 minutes and fill out this survey! It would be a huge help to us here on the BP team. 

Thank you! 

Have you ever noticed how short posts are on BP?

That's your market. Anything more than a few lines doesn't get read.

I did look at all 73 pages, I'm a sophisticated investor and I still didn't see the need for all of the data. That amount of analysis is for hedge funds who have to justify to large dollar clients to invest multiple millions of dollars. I don't think that group frequents BP.


Growth is marginal. Listings down a 1/3, not in any market known to man kind!

new home construction is up, can’t hire the people. My guess is still going on to may/June.

btw really bad timing to release such info.  (Coming from Indiana university grad)

Thank you all for this feedback, it's extremely helpful! Would appreciate any more if people are willing to read. I totally get the 'this is too much info' feedback, that makes sense. What is the most useful data in here to you all? 

@Dave Meyer I did also find this to be too much information, but I was curious on which data should be important to me as an investor and why. It seemed an inch deep and a mile wide. The job outlook and employer sections in particular, confused me. The job outlook data included 2020, but the top employers list on slide 37 was from 2017. Slide 28 included local gov't data but 29 did not include any gov't job data as the footnote indicated. 

I thought it was very neat, but I did not understand the definition of the risk indexes, eg what risk they are measuring and what data goes into it. I also have no idea what to do with some of the other metrics, such as the bit about housing being overpriced if interest rates are forever 5% and availability is 23% (forget specifics).. it just seems arbitrary.

i also agree about how this is great if you are pitching for millions of dollars of investment in a specific city, but i see users here over and over again trying to figure out what city to pick for remote investing.  They dont need this much data, but instead comparisons similar to what the various local realtors post when someone is trying to pick (for example) dayton, columbus or cleveland.  You see a lot of interesting graphs of things like population trends, cash flow vs appreciation,  compairson of local govt behaviors towards rentals..  would also be interesting to see things like ratios of rentals to PMs (eg can you easily find a new PM), market competition for foreclosures/auctions, ratio of income vs rent for neighborhoods etc. Not for one city but instead a tool that lets you compare multiple side by side...

just my 2 cents

This is great data but a bit overwhelming due to the sheer volume. If I were analyzing an 8+ figure deal then I'd appreciate this degree of research because I could justify investing the time required to perform this level of due diligence. If I were analyzing a SFH or small multifamily then this would take me to too long to determine if the investment is right for me.

I think it's fine.  I used to be an engineer, so lots of numbers are not a problem for me.

However, it is a lot of data, so think you should give ONE paragraph abstract for each section in the very front.  Also, might be better if you could break it down by neighborhoods and a one page summary for each using the same metrics and comparing them individually to the area average.

Problem with a lot of data is like the quote: "A guy with one watch knows what time it is.  A guy with two watches is never sure."

@Dave Meyer , as someone who used to publish very similar reports (albeit about the utility industry, not housing) I actually think this is a pretty decent report. I haven't done the survey yet, but I find they usually lack the granularity to really get a good picture of what you can do to improve.

First of all, what is the goal here? Are you releasing these reports as marketing towards your consulting services? Are you selling these to large organizations for a premium price? Going mid-level to brokers and other real estate professionals? Or, as most of the respondents seem to assume, are you selling to individual investors? If it's the latter, I'd agree that it's too long and too dense, but for any other group it seems like a report that could provide real value.

A few things that I would personally like to see:

A better explanation of your data sources and methodology. Right now your methodology page reads to me like a thinly veiled way of saying, "we pulled some random data off the internet and fed it through our opinion-based model." I'm not saying that's what you did, but that's how many people will interpret what you have there.

Access to the raw data. Back when I was doing what you're doing for a living, most of my clients were much more interested in our pivot tables and spreadsheets than our book (yes, we used to actually publish physical books of our reports). That would be true for me as well if you ever released such a report in my home market (Austin).

Muuuuuch more explanation of your projections. Projections are always suspect, because anyone who is a fully accurate prognosticator can make so much money that releasing forecasts simply isn't worth their time. However, if you can make a detailed and convincing case, I might still be able to justify your projections for myself and my clients. I'm not a developer or larger real estate organization, but I imagine anyone who is trying to find actionable information would also need more information in order to act upon what's outlined here.

Overall a very interesting read. I wasn't able to go through it in the detail I'd like to yet, but it's great bedtime reading.

Adding one more thing now that I've completed the survey. It only allowed an exact numerical answer to how much I would pay for the report, which I found frustrating. With a few caveats this report could be quite valuable, but as it stands it's not worth that much for my personal purposes. I ended up putting in 0 because I didn't want to deal with the parameter issues, but if the raw data and, say, an hours time with the analysts was offered it would be easily worth a few thousand dollars to someone in my situation. Even as is it's probably worth a bit of money to someone like me as an interesting read that would allow me to cherry-pick top-line numbers for clients.

I think the idea is right, but I would like to see more recommendations on the data. An example might be: 
- Single-Family Permit Volume: C- we gave this rating because this means (X) so when investing here you should be mindful of (X) 

Also, data is my day job, and static reports aren't my favorite. I would like to see this in an interactive database with filters. 

Scott,  Amazing report but it reminds me of the concept that "Less is more"  Some things to consider.

Who is your audience?  This feels like it shotguns data that many investment strategies would be interested but you leave it up to the reader to comb through 70 pages to find the nuggets that are meaningful to them.

You may get more mileage tuning the presentation to targeted investment strategies (realtors, wholesalers, multi-family, landlords, rehabbers, and builders etc...).  By focusing on a sector or strategy, you can prioritize and organize the reporting so the reader doesn't have to work so hard finding what is important plus you could get this down to a size the reader could actually consume.  This give you multiple products to market/sell as well using the exact same research/data.

As it is right now, I see this as a data dump but if you create targeted reporting, it gives you the opportunity to display your consulting chops and leadership by providing razor sharp analysis for that specific sector.  Now that is value.

my 2 cents

I would Like to give me .02

“Access to the raw data. Back when I was doing what you're doing for a living”

Well this is 2021. Do you have any real world experience? Do you know what is tearing the local old navy?

I thought not. 

Ppl please stop thinking this is the new normal.. find your own normal in your cities

once again my .02

Hey awesome thanks for your hard work Man! I'm just looking at a mobile home sitting on 1 acre just outside of DFW, so my question is there a way to add value to a mobile home in the form of additions to turn it into a BRRRR or is it best to keep as a rental property?

I disagree about this being too much info.  The beauty of it is that you can to go any section you need for more info at any time.  You don't need to read the whole thing.  An excellent guide!  Great job.

@David Meyer,

You have a lengthy report, and unintentionally I have a lengthy response. The bottom line is I found this report insightful, and if you take all the information here, you can tailor your approach to this market at the very least. I would be afraid that this level of detail might cause analysis paralysis. As a consultant through this report is usually how I have seen it done. I want a better understanding of your projections and how you came to those conclusions. Overall, it’s a good report, and you did warn us of the detail.

I have done consulting for businesses and nonprofits, and this is a substantial report on the Dallas Market. I understand this is more information than most investors need; however, the depth you provide allows for a deep understanding of the Dallas market. You start with Market Cycle Risk, which I agree with your findings and the number of permits that some use as an indicator for the stage of the cycle we are currently facing. Then you go into supply and demand and use as many metrics as possible to prove your predictions. Employee growth, Burns Affordability Index and various supply indexes spell out precisely what Dallas is doing now and possibly in the future. For those that don’t want detail, they can use the first five pages, but for those investors looking at the why they can pick the pages in which you outline the reason. For example, annual job growth has suffered over the years. Still, your report anticipates growth over the next few years, with the most significant change from the financial sector, specifically in the insurance and credit industries.

Your statement also lays out the largest employment sectors and employee earnings. All critical information for understanding the consumer and what price points they are willing to rent. You even give information on the health of the largest companies in the area. All this information allows you to define your strategy. Another example is going a step further; according to your report, Wal-Mart is the top employer with 34,000 employees. Looking at your information, I also see that the 20-40k earners are the largest earning group at almost 800,000, nearly double the next highest-earning group. That’s approx 1,700 - 3,333 per month in income, making a price point for rents between 570 and 1,111, before taxes, of course.

I could go on and on with examples, but for out of state investors like me, I can overview what is happening in Dallas and what the future will bring in the area. Another big piece of information found on page 50, homeownership cost vs. single-family rental, only 180 dollar difference and predicted to go to 7 in 2 years. Might look to purchase apartments in Dallas since homeownership is almost 1,000 dollar difference, making sense since the largest employer is Wal-Mart. Avg. Apartment rent is 1,180 dollars, slightly outside or at the top tier of that 800,000 earning groups. And apartment vacancy is less than 10 percent.

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