Tesla - battery day!

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Tesla battery investor day 9.22.2020 !   These are my thoughts BEFORE the event later today.

This is the event that basically reveals the "how" Tesla will continue to grow their dominance in the EV industry.

1)  Million mile battery -  a battery that will last longer than any ICE (old school fossil fuel burning combustion engine) car.   

2)  New battery technology (code name Roadrunner)- higher density, cheaper manufacturing cost, newer cheaper/environmentally friendly ingredients =  translation:  lower cost of the making the car and easier manufacturing to further their mission. (larger cells, tabless,dry battery electrode, cell to pack)

3)  New manufacturing plans - Gigafactory in Berlin and Terafactory in Austin, Texas.   Improvement efficiencies, new giant casting machines to simplify and reduce cost. 

4)  Dominance in FAST (SUPERFAST) charging with supercharger network that all other EVs are not using.   Tesla has the key to long distance travel with FAST, convenient charging all across the US and the globe.    funny thing, Elon offered it to other car makers but they all refused.   Wonder why? 

5) Refresh of Model S/X with plaid powertrain that should put Tesla back on top (Porsche Taycan currently fastest EV and Lucid Air Dream that is reported to be faster).   Hopefully there is also a external and internal refresh as well.  These are margin luxury level vehicles.

6) Profitability.  Q3 and Q4 should smash all prior delivery records and bring 2020 to a FANTASTIC profit story for Tesla when all other automakers are struggling to keep billions of losses from killing their business.

7) Surprises??   Hopefully more news on Tesla roadster 2.0 and semi-truck and total surprise news too??

1:30 pm PST, 9.22.2020

Hope to hear what you guys were excited about AFTER watching the event!

Tesla battery day notes!   (First half of the shareholders meeting notes below)

Re-cap of tesla's recent accomplishments by Elon

1)  Shanghai gigafactory - DIRT to FULL VOLUME production in 15 months!  100% Tesla OWNED factory in China - ONLY ONE in CHINA.   All other factories in China by foreign companies have to be owned in part by a Chinese company.   Tesla stands alone! 

2) Cheapest Solar in the U.S. -lowest cost, highest efficiency.   Solar tile roof - no competition.

3)  4 quarters of profitability!   SP500 are you listening!!!!

4)  Future value of Tesla ....not # of cars produced.   # of cars produced X AUTONOMY!        Wallstreet are you listening!!

5) Cash Flow -  Have a factory on every major CONTINENT.    North America - Fremont, Austin coming.    Europe - Berlin.    Asia - Shanghai.    4 major continents covered!  Efficiency, speed, cost cutting best done if factory is close to the delivery location.

6)  ICE automakers are DEAD/DYING.   Pandemic = March of death for the ICE automakers.  Tesla's the ONLY automaker GROWING in 2020!


7)  ICE cars at least 3X-5X more polluting than Tesla model 3 (charged by Grid - Solar (cleanest))

8)  Tesla makes the SAFEST cars (5 star) in the World.   No competition.  

9)  Autopilot functionality  -  0.3 (tesla) vs 2.1 (ICE cars)accidents per million miles driven.

10)  FULL self driving software release to beta users in about 1 month!!   Level 4 autonomous driving!!!  (We are currently level 2)

11)  3 advantages of Tesla - 

       A.  Engineering.   Best engineer CEO Elon + smartest engineers in the world work at Tesla

       B.  Manufacturing - "The machine that makes the machine is orders of magnitude harder than making a prototype."

       C.   Software - ignored by automakers, or outsourced and not integrated into                      their cars.   Over the air software updates, autonomous driving, complete                    vertical integration

WAIT for next post for the BATTERY DAY notes next. This note was just a recap by Elon

Battery Day notes!  9.22.2020, 2:45pm - 4pm

1) Power production of coal has dropped in HALF!   But need to go FASTER!

2) Tesla delivered 1 million vehicles, 26 billion electric million miles driven

3)  Sustainable energy generation (solar), storage (batteries), and transportation (EVs)

4)  Goal ONE -  Terawatt-Hr Scale Battery Production!   20-25 Terawatt-hrs a year!!!!

Need 135 gigafactories (Nevada) to achieve this.  Need $2 Trillion investment to make this happen! 

But how to do it cheaper, FASTER?

Improve the cost per kW/hr production.  

EV Market is growing.  But Tesla is focused on PRICE.  Making EVs affordable for even more people!

5)  Cell Design.    

A - 1865 smaller battery to larger 2170 battery - 50% increase in improvement!

B - Tabless- shorter distance for electrons to travel. Nobody has this in the world.   

Makes the battery more efficient, cheaper to make, less heat, = massive breakthrough

5x energy, +16% Range, 6X power!       New cell 4680!   

C - Cell Factory -  How to make battery cells better, faster, cheaper, than anybody else!     Follow the printing and bottling factory design to SCALE towards Terawatt level production.


D - Electrode - 

(Current Tech - now old school) Wet Process- costly, huge manufacturing cost, waste.

(New Tech - Maxwell acquisition) Dry electrode process.   10X reduction in footprint, 10X cost!  Already on revision #4 - Tesla is innovating like crazy

E.  Assembly - Continuous motion production -  You can accomplish with ONE factory that others take 5-10 factories at other companies can do    (Acquisitions that helped - Groman/Hibar)

Tesla is aiming to be the BEST manufacturing company on the EARTH!!   (and Mars too)

Eventually everyone will have EVs, autonomous driving....but Tesla aims to be #1 KING Of manufacturing!!!!!

Goal - 100 Gwh production on top of the current supplier.    3 Twh by 2030  (3 terawatt!  thats more than 30x!!!!)

E - Cathode - Nickel - HIGH density and way way cheaper than Cobalt!    (invest in Nickel!) 

Iron - good for stationary storage, short range use.

Nickel/Mangangese - intermediate grade cathode.

"it's a small world journey" of the metals to produce a cathode. How to improve the process to save cost/time/efficiency. 66% reduction capex investment 76% reduction in process, ZERO waste water!

F  Mining - NEW mining for Lithium via Nevada Clay!!    Mix Salt + Clay (lithium) = Lithium - all you need for all of the USA car fleet needs.

G.  Recycle - all elements from used cells.   Tesla recycles 100% of Tesla vehicle batteries.

H.  SINGLE GIANT CASTING of the rear body-  79 parts put into 1 part.    New aluminum alloy was developed to make this work.

I.  Structure batteries that actually give strength to the car frame.  so called negative weight.   SAVES weight, efficiency, space.   You can pack even more batteries if you needed.  Makes the car so stiff to improve performance.   Polar moment of inertia - mass is in the center- feels more agile.  

J. 14% (cell), 18%(factory) , 5% (anode), 12 % (cathode), 7% (vehicle integration) = 56% total savings on $/KWH

K.  LONG term goal - 20 million vehicles a year!!!!

L.   MIND blown -  $25,000 EV car!      3 year plan!  

M.   NEW PLAID model S -    0-60 mph - at less than 2 seconds!

                                          top speed 200 MPH!

                                          1/4 mile less than 9 seconds!!

                                          Fastest production car EVER  made (until the roadster comes out)

N.   Biggest story of them.   The actual cost of owing a EV is now CHEAPER and will continue to be CHEAPER to own than gas (ICE) cars.  Not only is EVs better for the environment/climate change but it's better for your wallet! 


Tesla mic drop.............all automakers need to change their pants now.                                           



Originally posted by @Neil Narayan :

Great summary Joe .. thanks

I used to spend like 2-3 hrs every day doing real estate (as my side gig), reading about real estate, listening to podcast, watching videos about real estate while working a 60+ hr - more than full time job.

Now, i spend about the same or more learning and reading and watching tesla content since 2018.   I think I'm working towards my 10,000 hrs of expertise! 

Check out this new vid by Electrified - Dillon Loomis.    Short but powerful take on battery day.battery day summary

Originally posted by @Neil Narayan :

I'm glad i bought Tesla stock quite a few years ago :)

Keep in mind.   it's not what price you paid (cost basis) that is important if you are investing in a fast growth stock.

But how often you add to your shares.

I bought more this week.  I buy every week.  I almost buy every day for the last several months.

I'm not looking at the price tomorrow but looking 5-10 years from now.    What matters that far ahead is how many total shares you own, not what price you paid.   Ultimately that's how you accumulate wealth in stocks.

100% gain on 10 shares is not as good as 50% gain in 100 shares.  

 

Regarding "100% gain on 10 shares is not as good as 50% gain in 100 shares. "

Sorry, I have to disagree 100% there. 

Originally posted by @Chris Martin :

Regarding "100% gain on 10 shares is not as good as 50% gain in 100 shares. "

Sorry, I have to disagree 100% there. 

The key to understanding this concept is not the numbers but the psychology of investing and how people do not accumulate shares of a company over time rather they sit on their ONE time purchase at a low share price and brag about their cost basis.   Sorry bragging about your $30/share tesla purchase is worthless if you only have 1 share.   vs someone who has 1000 shares at $100/share cost basis that was accumulated over time.   Assumption is both people have the money to do it but first guy only bought 1 share while the 2nd guy who is now almost half a million dollar rich accumulated shares over time.