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Malcolm Lawson
  • Annapolis, MD
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Get ready for some HOT deals!

Malcolm Lawson
  • Annapolis, MD
Posted May 19 2017, 04:08

Friends! I am calling it now, this Trump scandal is going to be the catalyst that sends the US into another economic recession. This is not necessarily a bad thing though, here's why.

Over the last hundred years the NASDQ has a bear market ever 3-5 years (a bear market is when the market drops more then 30% from it's peak). We have now gone 8 years without a bear market. This is partially artificial because the federal reserve had lowered prime significantly (the rate they lend money to banks) to help stimulate the economy. This is why mortgage loan interest rates hit there lowest ever of about 3.5%. They finally started raising prime incrementally about a year ago and mortgage interest rates started going back up and are not at about 4.25%. The real estate market does not always follow the stock market but over the past 10 years it certainly have.  This is the second longest bull market we have had in US history and we are well over do for a market correction. I truly believe these trump allegations and investigation (weather true or not) are going to cause investors to loose confidence in the economy and Trumps ability to execute his tax reform plans. This is going to be the tipping point.

This is not a bad thing though. Bear markets are an excellent opportunity to invest and buy stocks and real estate at a huge discount. Even Donald Trump himself is quoted in 2008 saying he hopes the economy does crash because it's a great opportunity for him to make money. Just imagine if you would had liquidated all of your stocks at the peak of the market then reinvested them in the stock or real estate in 2009 . You would have seen up to a 10X return on your investment. This is going to be a very similar situation.  I personally don't think it will be as bad as 2008 but I am expecting the the stock market to transition from a Bull to a Bear and following that the real estate market to shift from a Sellers Market to a Buyers Market.

Personally, I just sold all of my stocks in preparations for the bear market. If you don't feel comfortable doing this then I suggest you at least diversify your investments by placing them in index funds of other markets besides the US. Some I am looking at now are: Vanguard Total World Stock (VT) / Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index (VWO) / Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK). Also look into investing in bonds or bond index funds such as Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) because these typically stay pretty stable during market volatility. If you think I am full of crap and you think the US market is going to keep going up non-stop for ever and ever and never have a market correction, then at the very least buy stocks that pay out dividends that are reinvested. Dividends payout will actually increase if the stock price drops.

Also, DO NOT BUY MUTAL FUNDS! Instead buy index funds. Many mutual funds charge up to 3-4% annually in fee's and 95% of then actually under perform the market. Many of Vangaurd's index funds only charge .05% annually in fee's. Yes you read that correct, 3-4% annually in fee's vs .05% annually in fee's. Over your life time this could this difference in fee's could cause you to miss out on literally hundreds of thousands of dollars. Mutual funds are scams but that is the subject of a hole different rant.

As for your real estate investments.  If you where investing for capital gains then this may bee a good time to cash out.  If you own rental properties then just mentally prepare yourself to ride out the storm and take solace in the fact that even if the value is dropping your tenants are still paying down your mortgage every month, hopefully you are cash flowing monthly and you still get to claim depreciation on your taxes.  Also remember that markets run in cycles and the values will eventually rise again almost definitely even higher then they are now.  It always has and it always will.

I also highly recommend EVERYONE read Tony Robbins book Unshakable which talks about this exact situation and how to not only protect your self but actually make allot of money from it.  https://www.amazon.com/Unshakeable-Thrive-Survive-Financial-Correction/dp/1508232709/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1495188639&sr=8-1&keywords=tony+robbins