what is happening in boise idaho

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ok boise investors....i am going nuts trying to make a decision and need your help.....i live in northern cali and own several rentals there. ready to purchase another property, i feel cali is getting too crazy pricewise so i started researching boise idaho. It has a phenomenal growth rate and seems particularly safe. Everything in my mind points to Boise except that it would have been awesome to invest 5 years ago. I realize I am not going to get the super awesome deal. We came here and looked at houses. As of now the way the prices are it is a barely Break Even if i put 30% down when looking at rental cash flow. But I am betting more on appreciation. We are cash flowing plenty from our other properties so we have a good buffer. I would Cashflow positively if I would put 40% down which is possible. My biggest concern is the crazy amount of construction going on here. Any opinions on what housing will look like 5 years down the road when all of these extra houses are standing? What about rental demand? Would love to hear any opinions.... thanks

Hi Nadia

Those are great points you made about Boise. The market here is excellent. Yes 5 years from now there could be extra inventory. 

But according to Forbes and other local predictions that by 2050 that there is going to be a million people here in the Treasure Valley.

As always we can't predict the future. But Boise is looking  very promising.

Message me if you have any questions or need any numbers. 

Eddy

I would be careful of buying yourself cashflow, aka, placing a larger down payment, as well as betting on appreciation. During the last downturn, Boise was hit pretty hard with prices well below the cost to build. A good metric to keep in mind is the median home prices relative to median income levels. Many people are moving here from higher priced markets and driving our home prices higher. People who live and work here are finding it harder to afford rents as well as buying homes.

Finding properties in the outer areas will definitely help with cashflow, but recognize that Canyon county has higher property taxes for non-owner occupied properties. 

@Nadia Alrawi Yes, Boise has been booming for a while. Like @Cody Stone said, there are a lot of people from out of state moving here. Mostly from California and the NW areas and are driving up home prices. I would be concerned with betting on appreciation though. I think people will continue to move here and rents will be in demand because they want to get out of their areas due to costs, taxes and politics. It is hard to find deals that meet the 1% rule here though. So, if you can find a good cash flow deal, I think it is a good place, but I'd be concerned to bet on appreciation - unless you are looking to force appreciation through home improvements. 

Originally posted by @Nadia Alrawi :

thanks.. yes. I decided it's not really worth it either. We'll start looking for a different Market or different times.

Nadia, vetting a new market is tough. I've been investing in Meridian (bedroom community of Boise) for 10 years and have done well. In order to make it in today's market you'd definititely need to "buy some cashflow" (higher downpayment) targetting the right SFH that sits dead center in the sweet spot that families are looking for. I'm ready to buy another SFH and there are deals out there poping up from time to time that you have to be ready to grab. I understand your choice to look at a different market, but let me say this - I'll make a proposition that 10 years from now you'll look back and kick yourself if you pass on Boise.  No one has a crystal ball, but all the articles put Boise at the top of the heap for best city.  People are looking for lowers taxes and if you lean to the conservative side of the spectrum then Idaho's the state conservatives are gravitating to.  Cheers!

Matthew... I know those are my daily thoughts.  But it's hard to buy something now  and barely break even  just because of anticipation for the future. And there is a lot of construction going on  so I am worried about oversupply at one point.  I met your agent John and really liked him  so thank you so much for the referral. He told me you were thinking of getting another property there