The Market Is Splitting in Two Directions. Louisville Isn’t.

[Rob Bergeron]

Sat through the John Burns 2026 Housing Market Outlook, and I want to give you the clearest, no-nonsense takeaways — the same ones the biggest builders, lenders, and institutional investors are using to set their strategy for the next 24–36 months. The national picture is noisy, confusing, and split in multiple directions. But inside that noise are a few signals that matter a lot for Louisville.

Here’s what stood out:

• The national market is pushing in two directions at once.
Short-term rates have downward pressure. Long-term rates have upward pressure. Economists are divided. The Fed is divided. No one agrees on employment, inflation, or the neutral rate. When the referees can’t agree on the rules, you don’t play the guessing game — you focus on fundamentals.

• Rent markets across the country are soft.
A massive wave of multifamily completions finally hit. Thirty-seven percent of rental markets are considered weak, and 15% very weak. Louisville feels the softness in certain pockets — but not nearly to the degree of Austin, Denver, Nashville, or Miami, where oversupply is suffocating.

• New home sales are slowing everywhere.
Sixty-five percent of U.S. new-home markets are “slow.” Builders have pulled back starts. They’re also sitting on the highest number of completed-but-unsold homes in twelve years. That combination is opening rare opportunities to buy below replacement cost.

• Migration is rewriting the map.
People are leaving expensive, overbuilt metros and choosing smaller, steadier, more affordable cities. San Antonio, Colorado Springs, Killeen, Lakeland, Sacramento, Ogden — markets that look a lot more like Louisville than New York or Phoenix. Affordability is now the #1 predictor of inbound demand.

• Demographics are shifting the entire curve.

The largest growth over the next decade will be ages 40–55 and 70+. Meanwhile, traditional first-time buyer growth (ages 25–39) is almost flat.
This means:
– One-story homes and senior-friendly rentals will outperform
– Built-to-rent single-family will stay strong
– Age-in-place renovations will continue rising
– And Louisville’s healthcare-anchored economy becomes even more valuable

• 2026 isn’t a boom or a bust — it’s a reset year.

Multifamily supply normalizes. Single-family inventory tightens just enough. Rates ease a bit. Consumer strain improves. And by 2027-2030, a major wave of pent-up demand starts hitting the market.

• Louisville’s commercial core is entering a transformation.

Downtown office vacancy has climbed above 40%. Some tenants planning to leave aren’t counted yet. Remote work is not reversing. These conditions create openings for redevelopment, mixed-use repositioning, and long-term land plays that only show up once a generation.

And here’s the real headline:

Louisville is not the national market.

Our fundamentals look radically different from the metros you see flashing across the news.

We aren’t oversupplied.
We aren’t overpriced.
We aren’t leveraged to tech layoffs.
We aren’t dependent on volatile immigration inflows.
We aren’t a boom-and-bust Sun Belt city.

We’re stable, affordable, centrally located, logistics-driven, healthcare-anchored, and insulated from the wild swings everyone else is dealing with. While other markets are whiplashing from one extreme to the other, Louisville is doing what it always does — moving steadily forward.

We’re extremely fortunate to operate inside a market this healthy, this predictable, and this durable. Most metros would love to trade places right now.

If you want clarity on your portfolio, values, rentals, or opportunities inside this moment, email me the address and bed/bath count. I’ll walk you through everything so you can make decisions with confidence instead of guessing.

Inventory is dropping, sitting at 3,431.