Boston neighborhood with safest margin of error

7 Replies

Super interested to people’s thoughts. I’m someone moving to the city and looking to buy. Curious which neighborhood you think would most likely to appreciate over the next 10 yrs or least likely to go down during a correction.  

Choose among neighorhood below and provide reason:

1) backbay

2) southend

3) Charlestown

4) east Cambridge

5) Cambridge

6) JP

7) Brookline 

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@Lyn Zo   If you're looking for appreciation in Boston and the immediate surrounds, I'd say that being in the path of gentrification is your best bet.

That means Roxbury, Dorchester and especially Mattapan.  These three sections of Boston are notorious for high crime, but prices have been on the rise.  The other areas you mentioned are already through the roof.

Another option is to look at Hyde Park and Roslindale.  You can actually get a single family in the mid-$400s, where the least expensive in JP is $850 and Cambridge is $975K.

Thank you @Charlie MacPherson . Appreciate the insight. Would you say appreciation is almost the opposite of safety buffer? Ie - doing a downturn, those neighbhorhood you mentioned likely to drop whereas the backbay and southends of the world should maintain. 

where do you think offers the best balance of a safety net on value while still offering small appreciation opportunities? 

@Lyn Zo   I've never thought about it that way, but I think you could make a case that the lower crime areas have appreciated faster than the high crime areas.  I also think that it's plausible that people who still want to live in Boston are being priced out of those lower crime/higher cost areas into the "path of gentrification" areas.

I don't think any of Boston is in a downturn.  As far as I can tell, prices are rising all across Boston.  What I don't know is where low income people will go when prices force them out.

As to the best balance of low crime (rules out Roxbury, Dorchester and Mattapan) with lower pricing (suggesting more potential for appreciation), I'd look at Hyde Park, Roslindale and West Roxbury.

helpful @Charlie MacPherson . too bad 1-7 no long are good options as they're the best commute options for me.  i think i'll just need to see the other neighborhood to have a better feel for them

@Lyn Zo Where will you be coming from? Have you made it to town yet? Out of that area E. Cambridge and South End is the best for still looking for value. E. Cambridge, where I reside, has long been the ugly step child to the otherwise of Cambridge - Harvard Sq - but it has since gone through an incredible transformation. They are now building around it and gentrifying the entire neighborhood with larger buildings and more local amenities. It's access to hw and renewed Lechmere Station will play a large role in its appreciation. I think there's still value there. 

South End - particularly in the areas neighboring the Lower Roxbury neighborhood border has a lot of value and train access. While 'central' SE is quite expensive, going one more street will given you better prices and allow you to wait for appreciation of the market. 

You are definitely looking for the best areas that Boston has to offer but there is a cost of having convenience and local amenities to your home. 

Hope that gave you some insight. 

Most of the areas you mentioned will see modest, but slow appreciation.  The problem is you'll likely make as much or more from appreciation in less expensive areas.  I'd recommend looking into the Savin Hill neighborhood of Dorchester or the Jeffries Point neighborhood in East Boston.  The eastern half of Jamaica Plain is also worth checking out.  

Try to buy something that's within a 10 minute walk from an MBTA station.

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