Northside - Did it just die?

26 Replies

Hello all,

The subject line may be a bit overdramatized...but maybe not?  Just listed a finished rehab on Apjones last week. It’s not the greatest and nicest ever, but it’s solid and was decently priced. A bit on the higher end, but there were comps to support it. However, since listing it Thursday, we have gotten literally zero showing requests. Not even talking zero offers...I’m saying not even one request for a showing. And according to my agent, a lot of his colleagues are experiencing the same thing.  Just take a look around active listings, and you see a whole lot more price reductions than Pendings. 

So...to all the locals in Cincinnati (I’m out of state) - what the heck is happening?  It’s not like all the reasons that made Northside one of the hottest revitalizing areas over the past year or so has all of a sudden gone away.  If anything, from what I understand, there’s even more development taking place in that area as we speak.  Can anyone provide some more local intel?  My realtor says it’s not just a matter of mid August being traditionally slower (mine is 2br 1.5 ba so not a family demographic anyway), it’s unnaturally slow right now. 

There are a number of different factors at play here.  Interest rates make what once was a good price now look too high.  Schools are getting back in session so that slows down things somewhat.  

While I may have an east side bias, locally in my circles Northside was never really talked up.   It is a neat place but the people I talk too are more interested in Westwood, Cheviot, and similar neighborhoods further west.  

Those who wanted to buy have bought the rest probably were never looking seriously in the first place.  

Usually after any frenzy of activity things do have to slow down to allow the system to catch up.  

I was a little surprised at the volume of houses listed right now. Non-investor locals are having major price shock especially in Northside.

I think the bright blue is not working in your favor. 

+/- $15000 and there are several options within a couple blocks that have more architectural appeal.

Apjones is a bit on the edge of the desirable business area for the non-family buyers.

The weather this week is going to be very nice... there should be a lot of people out looking.

@Nathan Currier-Groh

That’s good feedback. Re: blue - suffice it to say it didn’t end up the way I originally envisioned. Had seen it online on a different type of siding, with that exact color combo of white, blue, yellow door and looked much better. Gambled a bit on the color with it being a bit of an artsy area. I don’t have another couple grand right now to re-paint it. Like I said, I know it’s not the nicest rehab, but if you walk through it is a very open plan and fairly well done. 

You and @Paul Sian share sentiments of the sticker shock aspect of Northside it seems.  We will see what happens this week...just takes the one. 

But also keep in mind, it’s not just my property and its blue that is not bringing people in. It’s an awful lot of the active listings that are experiencing the same thing. Check out how many price reductions have and are taking place every week. So like you said, maybe it’s just the sticker shock for the area as a whole.

The market in Cincinnati is weird right now.  There's still a handful of homes that get multiple offers and sell immediately and then there's a bunch of stuff that's sitting for no real reason.  What we've found in my group is that price is king right now.  You have to be priced under value and not over right now.  Under value is still getting multiple offers and over list.

yea... apjones is near Northside.... but it's a fringe street.... that combined with the color, size, lack of parking probably makes this one tough. My uncle just did a flip on Chambers.... no issues- but it was bigger, parking, yard, etc. It appears you did this through Build Realty.... what didn't they suggest for the ARV?

This seems like an ideal opportunity to BRRR, I'm guessing if you bought for around 60k you should be able to pull out a good amount of cash on a refi and still have rents of $1200-$1400 for a solid cashflow property.

Jake 

@Jake Walroth makes a really good point, if you decide you don't want to sell it for what buyers will offer you right now.

Northside is getting to feel like old news now. With property values increasing faster than wage growth, people are looking to perimeter neighborhoods to get more affordable housing CLOSE to the neighborhoods where they want to work and play. College Hill is getting some Northside love, Kennedy Heights is getting some Oakley love, and Mt Auburn and Walnut Hills are getting some OTR love. 

What @Paul Sian said about those areas may be right. Man, there are some absolutely gorgeous pockets with big historic homes in Westwood, but we usually write it off as a C-class rental neighborhood!

@Slocomb Reed not going to lie....being a proud westsider... and growing up in Westwood... it's good to see 25-35 year old friends moving into parts of Westwood. Westwood is the largest neighborhood in Cincinnati by a good margin.... so like you said... it gets written off as C-D class.... but there are tremendous pockets where people are renovating/fix ups.... as you said.... if someone dropped you on Epworth.... you wouldn't know you weren't in Hyde Park. 

Westside Brewery has been busy the few times I've been there-- with foodtrucks.... never thought the westside would see foodtrucks... there's also a few other shops that have popped up.... Nation is opening up their 2nd location in the old firehouse..... lots of good movement..affordable, quiet pockets, not disconnected from downtown/highways like most of the westside. 

Cheers 

@Sean Cole Interesting observation there.  I guess it’s the tension of wondering if you’re just going to lose out on too big a chunk of profit by listing it below market value vs. “knowing” in as much as you can that you would get some offers going well below market value.

@Slocomb Reed @Jake Walroth In response to your all's ideas to BRRR it, and in addition to Sean's suggestion of going below market value, after the insane amount of holding costs I've had to carry, it really wouldn't put back much money in my pocket...long story short, it was a bit of a mess of rehab. You guys have obviously looked up the property. Look at how long I've had to hold it. Delay after delay after delay - some admittedly city permit related, but also fair share of just no-real-good-reason delays. It took basically a year from close to list on a 1300 sq ft house. Do the math, and you can see it went way way too long. And yes, Greenleaf funded it, which means the holding costs were absolutely insane b/c their terms are absurd. Suffice it to say, between this experience and another one I did simultaneously in another city, I have paid a whole lot of dumb tax...and even more financial "tax" in the form of losses. I need to sell this property and just recoup as much cash as I can get...otherwise, sure a BRRR would be great. If this means I have to drastically reduce the price, maybe that's what I have to do. Many lessons learned.

One more note: someone mentioned that Northside is almost “old news” at this point...With the original projected timeline being at latest spring of 2018, I do believe this would’ve sold right at the peak of all the skyrocketing values.