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Ori Skloot
Pro Member
  • Investor
  • Berkeley, CA
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Local Impact?? 12-story development at Berkeley Bart Stations.

Ori Skloot
Pro Member
  • Investor
  • Berkeley, CA
Posted Jun 6 2022, 09:02

On June 3rd: "the Berkeley City Council voted unanimously for seven-story buildings — which could rise to 12 stories with a state density bonus —at the North Berkeley and Ashby BART stations. The vote also endorsed up to 2,400 homes, but with the state incentive that could turn into up to 3,600 units at the two stations."  SF Chronicle Story

This is a hugely polarized decision, but I don't want to get into the right or wrong of it.   I would like to know your opinion on what you think will happen to home values in the immediate surrounding area of North and South Berkeley Bart.

One argument could be made that home values will be adversely affected because a single-family dwelling is less appealing next to a massive high-rise building.   On the other hand, the development will have nice amenities, green space, shops, coffee shops, etc. which will be attractive to some folks.    South Berkeley Bart is already surrounded by higher buildings so maybe the development won't stick out as much and the area will be better off?

Anyone have any historical data or case studies that might give insight into what we can expect?   Or, if you have a theory on what could happen let's hear it.

Thanks,

Ori

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Greg San Martin
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Berkeley, CA
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Greg San Martin
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Berkeley, CA
Replied Jul 4 2022, 15:05

The strategy across most of Assembly District 15 is to create a supermajority of tenants, none of whom will ever vote down a city or county parcel tax or an increased tax on housing providers.  If the thousands of units at Bart were condos for sale that enabled greater access to generational wealth opportunities by the younger generations, then I'd support this.  But new ownership opportunities are the last thing you will see in cities that are dominated by electeds who want to end private ownership of rental housing.  That said, I do not think those home values will suffer much, paradoxically because of the housing shortage created by effectively prohibiting the creation of new homes for sale.  If any rentals in those areas lose significant value, the TOPA ghouls flanked by code enforcement and tenant attorneys will be happy to make a lowball offer.  The enema police will be on patrol 24/7 in that hood.