Current State of Affairs (Market Sentiment)
CPI came back higher than expected .... where will that put the market(s)?
Is it a good time to be a buyer or seller right now?
Well according to Fannie Mae in June the share of home owners who think its a good time to sell fell from 76% to 68% in June.
Just 20% of consumers think its a good time to buy, which is an improvment from May 2022 (Fannie Mae)
The biggest issue is theres more people who feel like the economy is on the wrong track and at risk of losing their job.
Home Buyer Cancellations reached a new height of 15% in June, to put it into perspective cancellations were at 11% last year (Redfin) so we're not in terrible territory. The main driver of this is 1. fear of prices falling in the coming year resulting in investments being 'under water' 2. prospective buyers not qulifying for mortgages due to rising interest rates 3. those who believe they can get a better deal as the market cools down.
Where does that leave us ?
In the midst of turmoil and FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) there is still oppurtunity. Being on the frontlines, everyday I see Investors actively purchasing properties even with interest rates being in high 6%, low 7% range... thats a big jump from where we were just a few months back (4-5%) but it does not mean good deal aren't out there.
The payment difference on a 30 year fixed rate, $260,000 property value, 25% down payment.
5.375% 7%
$1,091 $1,297
$206
You might miss takeout food 4 times a month but at least your living the American Dream of true property ownership, building equity, living off of cash flow, building your empire & legacy does it get any better ?
The point I am making: Dont let the news keep you from looking for oppurtunites, theres deals out there so lets tackle them together. It's nearly impossible to perfectly time the market which is why I like to work off of certainy. One thing for certain is I will be an important member of your real esate team, you will have access to me 24/7, I will always go above and beyond for your deals.
Let's talk
- Owen BRRRR Loans
When CPI comes back in higher than expected, expect the Fed to respond by continuing their interest rate hikes, or getting even more aggressive with hikes than their previous guidance would suggest.
That said, I am optimistic that inflation is peaking. It seems like gas prices are settling, and I wonder if supply chain issues are slowly getting resolved, the jobs market is starting to cool off a little bit, and I think real estate prices (but not necessarily rents) will start flattening out a bit. We'll see if I'm right. The Fed may be cautious.
It's not a good time to be a buyer right now, because interest rates are so high, that mortgages are expensive.
It's also not a good time to be a seller right now, becuase you have to put your sale proceeds somewhere... what's the point of selling a property, if there is nowhere to attractively reinvest the proceeds.
It is a GREAT time to be an OWNER of real estate, as rents are soaring, and my payment is staying the same with my fixed rate mortgages.
I think that investors have to zoom out, think long-term and continue investing in SOMETHING. And for me, that's real estate, in spite of it being a hard time to be a buyer.
One thing to note on inflation and demand - Americans have a TON of cash (both corporations and individuals). So, I think that folks won't voluntarily downgrade their lifestyles all at once. Rather, I think it will be a gradual process, which could leave inflation high, and out of the Fed's control to reduce with interest rate hikes in the near-term. They will get their way (the Fed will) eventually, though.
Also - welcome to BiggerPockets and thank you for the thought provoking first post!
I love @Scott Trench's take on it being a great time to be an owner of real estate. I can't think of a more obvious truth right now. Anyone who's owned any real estate for over 12 months now is in a wonderful equity position with a great rate.
However, as an agent here in Utah, I'm tempted to argue that now is a good time to be a buyer. Our inventory has doubled, almost tripled in the past two months and now my buyer clients suddenly feel like the tables have turned. We're successfully getting properties for $20-40k less than we could a few months ago by taking advantage of the anxiety sellers are feeling right now! One of the properties I toured last night dropped their price $50,000 after only being on market for 11 days. It feels much more healthy than the bidding wars we've been in the past three years.
It's also been popular to take at least $10,000 of the price decrease as a mortgage interest concession which is dropping our monthly payments by about the same $200/month that @Owen Igori noted. Getting the same house you could have bought two months ago for $20,000 less and a $10,000 interest concession has me more excited to assist buyers than I've been in a few years.