Whats your opinion on recent media indicating a big crash

[Jimmy Rojas]

I know youtube is not the most reliable source for real estate news, but more than one real estate youtuber is mentioning that a big crash is coming as interest rates go up people will hold up on buying homes, there is a current stall on homes being sold and prices are slowly dropping, I live in Phx,Az and know this is one of the cities that gets hit the worst when there is a crash.

Real estate video

[Scott Mac]

It's intelligent to have a safety net, of cash--as much as possible, stable extended family with a residence you can sleep at long term--if TSHTF and your's is not free and clear), a paid for vehicle that runs well, and a hobby.

[Jeremy Nault]

I personally do not think that there is a crash coming.  That being said all markets are different and some will likely be hit harder than other's in the next year or so.  In my market specially, you can feel that things have shifted however there are still home selling for over asking in the first weekend even with current interest rate.  While the market will likely continue to soften as rate continue to rise I do not for-see a crash like 2008 anytime soon. 

[Mike Hern]

Quote from @Jimmy Rojas:

I know youtube is not the most reliable source for real estate news, but more than one real estate youtuber is mentioning that a big crash is coming as interest rates go up people will hold up on buying homes, there is a current stall on homes being sold and prices are slowly dropping, I live in Phx,Az and know this is one of the cities that gets hit the worst when there is a crash.

Real estate video

I don't know the difference between a crash and a "big crash" but for the property I just bought "off market" in N. Phoenix, Redfin had a value of $775K a month ago and yesterday they had it at $750k - a drop of $25k - Since I  bought it at $640k I'm fine, but I expect it to drop another 10% in the next 12 months. 

Opendoor has about 700 properties on the MLS in the Phoenix area and I've analyzed a few, each of which they are selling for $50k to $80k less than they bought for a few months ago.

Is that indicating a "crash" or just a "correction"? I say it's a correction based on the fact that DOM is still below average and inventory hasn't reached normal levels yet. When DOM is more than 6 months, inventory is 110% or more of average and interest rates are 7% or above, things are moving to a "crash". 

That is actually odd to me because I started when interest rates were 8% and climbed from there to 14% to 18%. But people kept buying houses. Today everybody is hooked on very low rates, and that is a good thing! Interest rates are just transferring your wealth to someone else, the lower the rate, the more you save. And we are years away from appreciation being a reason to invest in real estate. 

But, other parts of the economy Will crash and if that bleeds over to real estate, properties will go down in price even more.

I'd keep an eye on banks, the stock market, the bond market, pension funds, energy, transportation and high tech.

[Brad S.]

I'd be wary of anyone who states that prices will definitely go down, because interest rates are going up. Rates are a significant part of the equation, but not the entirety. Historically, we have had times where prices continued to rise, at the same time rates were rising. So, when people focus solely on rates, they are seeing with tunnel vision. 

Rates are important, insofar as they affect affordability. Affordability is a function of payment, prices, and financing availability (salary, personal wealth, financing availability, etc). Then there is inventory, and "wildcards," like government policy, intervention, pandemics, etc. 

Personally, I don't anticipate a crash, but a correction, or slowing of upward trends, which sometimes feels like a downturn. Kinda like when an airplane starts slowing down and puts up the flaps on the descent toward landing - it sometimes feels like the plane is stopping in mid-air waiting to fall out of the sky, when it is just slowing to a reasonable speed heading for a safe landing.

Some things leading me to this are: we have historically low inventory of available homes for sale, shortage of homes in general, some of the most secure loans since the 07-08 crash - stringent lending policies, many Homeowner with the lowest fixed rate loans in history, generally higher net worth and wealth/equity ...

[Jay Hinrichs]

see this thread 1000 replies plus and in depth talk about the current markets etc. its a long read LOL

https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

[Jonathan R McLaughlin]

@Jimmy Rojas We have been on a crazy bull run for so long that people are equating a downturn with a crash and interest rates near historical norms as “sky- high”.

So yes, headwinds, be prudent but I’m not sure if stock the fallout shelter just yet

[Greg Rusianoff]

We sell a lot of properties to people who then fix and flip them. Our market has pretty much stopped. No one is putting in offers. I'm not sure about the move-in ready market, but the fix-n-flip market certainly appears to be headed for a crash. 

It makes sense. Rehabbers don't want to put money into projects right now, when they don't know what the home prices will be in a year. More rate hikes are coming. 

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Greg Rusianoff:

We sell a lot of properties to people who then fix and flip them. Our market has pretty much stopped. No one is putting in offers. I'm not sure about the move-in ready market, but the fix-n-flip market certainly appears to be headed for a crash. 

It makes sense. Rehabbers don't want to put money into projects right now, when they don't know what the home prices will be in a year. More rate hikes are coming. 

 are you a wholesaler procuring deals for investors ??  or are you an agent and talking about your listings. ? 

[Greg Rusianoff]

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg Rusianoff:

We sell a lot of properties to people who then fix and flip them. Our market has pretty much stopped. No one is putting in offers. I'm not sure about the move-in ready market, but the fix-n-flip market certainly appears to be headed for a crash. 

It makes sense. Rehabbers don't want to put money into projects right now, when they don't know what the home prices will be in a year. More rate hikes are coming. 

 are you a wholesaler procuring deals for investors ??  or are you an agent and talking about your listings. ? 

We buy properties in foreclosure and tax auctions and sell them to investors. Not an agent. 

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Greg Rusianoff:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg Rusianoff:

We sell a lot of properties to people who then fix and flip them. Our market has pretty much stopped. No one is putting in offers. I'm not sure about the move-in ready market, but the fix-n-flip market certainly appears to be headed for a crash. 

It makes sense. Rehabbers don't want to put money into projects right now, when they don't know what the home prices will be in a year. More rate hikes are coming. 

 are you a wholesaler procuring deals for investors ??  or are you an agent and talking about your listings. ? 

We buy properties in foreclosure and tax auctions and sell them to investors. Not an agent. 

 well keep me in mind for lots or land I built about 35 homes in charleston last 7 years and cant find any lots to buy now that make sense.