If inflation peaked, what does that mean for the recession

[Bill Schrimpf]

@Dave Meyer wrote this interesting article supposing inflation has peaked, and interest rates seem to agree with him. I saw gas under $5.00/gallon in Reno, NV, today. If Dave and the interest rates are right, what does this mean for the recession? 

I think we are in a recession; countless articles discuss what a recession is, how to measure it, which KPI's actually mean something, etc. We know the old measure of 2 quarters of negative GPD, but really...

I did some moderate belt-tightening the past 6'ish months, as did most others I know. Our family still took a vacation but were more conscious about everyday expenses and paid down some debt to free up future cashflow should something terrible happen. We didn't buy that new truck and moderated investment strategies.  

So, how long and deep will the recession be if inflation peaked and the worst is behind us? Will we buy that new truck in 2023 or not take a vacation? What about your family and business?

[Andrew Syrios]

I think it's way too early to assume inflation has peaked or at the least, calmed down. We have one month to show that. In addition, with the wave of big layoffs that have just been announced (11,000 at Meta, 10,000 at Amazon, 4000 at Twitter and a bunch of other companies not to mention a lot of layoffs in the construction industry and real estate agents/mortgage brokers needing a new job) if inflation has peaked, it's probably because we are in the early stages of a real recession (versus the technical recession of Q1-Q2 earlier this year). Recessions are often how inflation slows down i.e. 1982.