Sell duplex to pay off primary???

[Derek Howe]

Hello!

I've been reading "The changing world order" by Ray Dalio, and listening to some podcasts related to the subject of the declining US empire, and I'll admit it has me wondering if everything we hold true about long-term investing may be in for a shakeup in the near future

What I'm trying to decide is, should I sell a rental duplex (I have 2) and pay off my primary as a defensive measure? My plan has always been to have these properties as long-term holds, and I know selling this early (purchased in 2019 at 3.25%) and with such a low interest rate goes against conventional wisdomw, and I dont really want to, but as I learn more about where the US is in the long-term debt cycle, the more nervous I become about a catastrophic devaluation of the dollar, job loss, civil strife, etc

Can anyone offer any advice for how to model or weigh the options on something like this? I would be very appreciative!

Thanks everyone!

Derek

[Dan Guenther]

Hey @Derek Howe, 

When considering whether to sell your rental duplexes and pay off your primary residence as a defensive measure, it's important to carefully weigh the options and consider various factors. Here are a few points that I'd take into consideration:

1. Diversification: Rental properties can provide a form of diversification in your investment portfolio. Selling them and putting all your resources into a primary residence may reduce your investment diversification.
2. Long-term investment goals: Assess your long-term investment goals and how the sale of your rental properties aligns with those goals. Consider factors such as cash flow, potential appreciation, and your risk tolerance.
3. Economic and geopolitical factors: It's important to stay informed about the changing world order and understand the potential impacts on the economy. However, making investment decisions based solely on predictions or speculation can be challenging. Instead, focus on building a resilient and diversified portfolio that can withstand different economic scenarios.
4. Financial stability and risk management: Evaluate your overall financial situation, including your emergency fund, other investments, and sources of income. This can help you determine the level of risk you're comfortable with and whether paying off your primary residence makes sense as a defensive measure.

No one can accurately predict the future, and it's important to make investment decisions based on thorough analysis and your individual goals and risk tolerance. If you want to go through the numbers on each scenario just reach out and we can talk it through a bit more. 

[Theresa Harris]

Look at the big picture. We have no idea what the future holds.  The US had a crash in 2007/2008, but house prices bounced back.  If you have a good interest rate and the numbers make sense, I'd hold it.  If prices drop, then wait for them to rebound.

[Jonathan Aversano]

Paying off your mortgage at 3.25% with todays interest rates definitely does go against all conventional financial wisdom. Even if you're that pessimistic about the US, why not just refinance if you have serious equity in it, or explore a HELOC?

[Richard S.]

Quote from @Dan Guenther:

Hey @Derek Howe, 

When considering whether to sell your rental duplexes and pay off your primary residence as a defensive measure, it's important to carefully weigh the options and consider various factors. Here are a few points that I'd take into consideration:

1. Diversification: Rental properties can provide a form of diversification in your investment portfolio. Selling them and putting all your resources into a primary residence may reduce your investment diversification.
2. Long-term investment goals: Assess your long-term investment goals and how the sale of your rental properties aligns with those goals. Consider factors such as cash flow, potential appreciation, and your risk tolerance.
3. Economic and geopolitical factors: It's important to stay informed about the changing world order and understand the potential impacts on the economy. However, making investment decisions based solely on predictions or speculation can be challenging. Instead, focus on building a resilient and diversified portfolio that can withstand different economic scenarios.
4. Financial stability and risk management: Evaluate your overall financial situation, including your emergency fund, other investments, and sources of income. This can help you determine the level of risk you're comfortable with and whether paying off your primary residence makes sense as a defensive measure.

No one can accurately predict the future, and it's important to make investment decisions based on thorough analysis and your individual goals and risk tolerance. If you want to go through the numbers on each scenario just reach out and we can talk it through a bit more. 

Dan is spot on with his points. I recently read this book as well and I totally get the concerns, especially around diversification and security. My wife and I are heavily invested in both US and International markets and have recently decided that we wanted to diversify as a means of security. If you feel you are RE heavy, I agree that the property could be sold to pay off your primary, but you could also invest in property in another nation (If Yuen becomes the world reserve currency, a move could be in order), or in the market for strict diversification.

Either way, I'd be cautious about buying too heavily into theories regarding debt ceilings, currency dominance and geopolitics in general. For a good view of this subject on both sides, check out "All-In" podcast, specifically episode 130. Hope that helps!

If you do decide to diversify your holdings, please hit me up. My wife and I may be interested in the duplex in Denver.

[Ben Rhodin]

Hey @Derek Howe! Great information in here already, and Dan definitely hit the arguments for the keep/sell aspect of the question. However, in my opinion, what we are speaking of currently is not a financial or defensive question, it is a decision based solely on emotions. Which choice would make you feel more comfortable with what you believe the future holds? The duplex is hopefully currently cash-flowing, and will most likely continue to do so, even if we hit a blip in the market. Selling it and putting it into your primary, will mean that you are losing cash flow and appreciation of that asset, but you are saving money by not having a housing payment. But it's probably not a stronger return than what your duplex is getting you today. So it will come down to if you feel more stable and secure knowing you have no housing payment for yourself, and that if S**** hits the fan you'll still be able to keep a roof over your head. 

Personally, I wouldn't pursue selling that property unless you find a better deal elsewhere.