Is easy money done for?
The last 15 years we have seen low rates for short and long term debt from private to public borrowing. My understanding is that this was a response to the Great Recession and that investors didn't allow rates to hit historic norms again. This caused asset prices across the board to inflate to match the accessibility of money since the debt service was so cheap. We had a last oorah over the last 2 years as rates hit all time lows and money access was at all time highs. This has affected asset prices from homes, businesses, stocks, etc and allowed public debt to skyrocket. With this in mind, what are expectations for money borrowing in the future? Some people say that easy money is over and others say we couldn't handle raising rates to pre 2000's norms because of the cost of current public/private debt. When I look at the current inverted bond yield curve I am now leaning towards the latter since investors who drive the market are saying, "we think rates will be lower in the future compared to now so we're going to bet on a lower yield over a longer period."
My point in asking this is to have a better understanding for if mortgage rates are going to eventually settle in the 4's, 5's, 6's or higher. This drastically changes my investing and consulting because I can make an educated guess about future cash flow and take advantage of the slowdown in this market while buyers sit on the sidelines watching to see what happens.
What do you think the future of money borrowing will look like?
Hi @Ashton Karp, rates have actually gone down over the past couple months.
In large part due to the fact that people are expecting a recession.
Historically, recessions cause rates to fall. Therefore, at least in the short term, rates have stabilized in the 4s and 5s on primary residences.
In the long term, it is highly dependent on where inflation heads.
Only about 3-3.5% of the current inflation is caused due to the increase in the money supply. The rest is caused by supply chain issues, lack of inventory, and other independent factors.
If the independent factors wear off, we will likely see rates stabilize in the 4s, 5s, and 6s. If not, rates will likely continue to rise.
I hope this allows you to better educate and advise your clients. Let me know if I can be of any assistance.