San Diego Homes Prices & Inventory Supply - January 2022 to January 2023
Hi All,
I've been getting a lot of questions regarding the San Diego market in particular and where prices are going etc so I wanted to pull the most recent data to compare last year's January to this one.
All properties saw an increase of 9.5% in prices from January 22 to January 23 which is displayed on the graph below.
I also pulled inventory numbers by price point in the second graph below. The average home price in San Diego is about $840K which currently has about a .9 month supply up .3 from last year.
I'm going to be watching this month over month to see where inventory numbers go but I wanted to post about this because there have been a lot of media companies (Goldman Sachs) out there that put San Diego in their headlines as one of the markets to take a hit in prices, but I don't see it happening anytime soon unless we really see an increase in our inventory supply. A lot of these media companies are just putting headlines out there for click bait and not actually looking at the data.
Demand for San Diego housing has and will continue to be one of the most desirable and competitive markets in the US.
Core Logic lists San Diego RE prices down 8% since May (but still up YOY for January). May is traditionally higher price than January, so clearly it is less than 8% decline but the true decline may not be known until May. I suspect it will be down YOY by March and possibly down 3 to 5% YOY by May.
Regardless, the San Diego RE prices do not seem to be as impacted as some dire predictions. For my part, I advocated caution and have not purchased anything since December 2021 (I purchased $4M that month so that could keep me busy for a bit). Looking at my expected 3 to 5% YOY at May (market high May 2022), I may have been overly cautious, but I would rather be overly cautious than too aggressive. I am still proceeding with caution. The fed has not finished raising rates to slow the economy. If the feds get this perfect, hats off to them but it is not an easy thing to do. They are more likely to over correct than get it right for no other reason than over correction is perceived to have less severe consequences than under correcting.
Quote from @Steve Meyers:
Hi All,
I've been getting a lot of questions regarding the San Diego market in particular and where prices are going etc so I wanted to pull the most recent data to compare last year's January to this one.
All properties saw an increase of 9.5% in prices from January 22 to January 23 which is displayed on the graph below.
I also pulled inventory numbers by price point in the second graph below. The average home price in San Diego is about $840K which currently has about a .9 month supply up .3 from last year.
I'm going to be watching this month over month to see where inventory numbers go but I wanted to post about this because there have been a lot of media companies (Goldman Sachs) out there that put San Diego in their headlines as one of the markets to take a hit in prices, but I don't see it happening anytime soon unless we really see an increase in our inventory supply. A lot of these media companies are just putting headlines out there for click bait and not actually looking at the data.
Demand for San Diego housing has and will continue to be one of the most desirable and competitive markets in the US.
Hi Steve,
There is lots of these Goldman type articles and people coming out and saying there is going to be a CRASH or correction. We cannot see the future but we can sure READ data. What I have found is that NONE of these DOOM and GLOOM media pieces are ever backed by DATA to support. It always comes down to supply and demand, before the last crash in 2008 go look up how many homes were on the market in SD, 27K I believe and now there is less than 3K. Yes the FEDS pushed rates down, the 30 year hit 7.5% and the market STOPPED, now the 30 year fixed is high 5's and tons of offers on properties. We also did NOT build enough here or anywhere since 2009. We will keep watching but we would need a massive increase in supply or the 30 year fix to go to 7.5% again to slow things down. Demand can change quickly, but supply is the challenge and when lots of people are sitting on sub 4%, 3% fixed rates, they are NOT very motivated to do anything.
As we have now entered the March market, I wanted to provide some market stats from the previous month.
To recap the below, our active inventory is still down from what it was in January (9% for detached single family homes and 7.5% for condos/townhomes).
Last year February (2022) versus this year February, we had 54% more inventory for sale in detached single family homes and 40% more inventory for sale in condos/townhomes.
Buyer demand has remained strong with properties still receiving mutiple offers, while interest rates have slowly started to creep back up into the high 6s.
To help combat the higher rates, a lot of buyers are still taking full advantage of the 3-2-1 and 2-1 rate buydowns.
New Listings for Detached SFRs
-Compared to February 2022, we are down about 54% in our February 2023 active inventory of for sale single family detached homes.
-Compared to January of this year, we are down about 9% in inventory for February 2023's number of active single family detached homes.
New Listings for Condos/Townhomes
-Compared to February 2022, we are down about 40% in our active inventory for sale for condos and townhomes
-Compared to January of this year, we are down about 7.5% in our active inventory for sale for condos and townhomes
Pending (Under Contract) for Detached SFRs
We saw 1,188 single family detached homes go under contract in February. There were a total of 1,174 new houses listed for sale in February. The number of homes under contract is higher than the total of new houses listed on the market in February because 14 of these were listed previously in January.
Pending (Under Contract) for Condos/Townhomes
We saw 697 condos/townhomes go under contract in February. There were a total of 686 new condos/townhomes listed for sale in February. The number of condos/townhomes under contract is higher than the total of new condos/townhomes listed on the market in February because 11 of these were listed previously in January.
Closed Sales for Detached SFRs
A total of 998 homes were sold in February. (Not all homes that go under contract in that month will close that same month)
Closed Sales for Condos/Townhomes
A total of 557 condos/townhomes were sold in February. (Not all condos/townhomes that go under contract in that month will close that same month)
Median Sales Price for Detached SFRs
Median sales price was $849K in January. For February, it was at $900K, with a median price increase of $51K for detached single family homes within San Diego County.
Median Sales Price for Condos/Townhomes
Median sales price was $590K in January. For February, it was at $616K, with a median increase of $26K for condos/townhomes within San Diego County.
Mortgage Rates Today Compared to February
Conventional 30 Yr - Rate increased by .20%
Conventional 15 Yr - Rate increased by .50%
Jumbo - 30 Yr - Rate increased by .20%
5/1 ARM - Rate decreased by .06%
FHA 30 Yr - Rate increased by .33%
VA 30 Yr - Rate increased by .33%
Quote from @Steve Meyers:
Hi All,
I've been getting a lot of questions regarding the San Diego market in particular and where prices are going etc so I wanted to pull the most recent data to compare last year's January to this one.
All properties saw an increase of 9.5% in prices from January 22 to January 23 which is displayed on the graph below.
I also pulled inventory numbers by price point in the second graph below. The average home price in San Diego is about $840K which currently has about a .9 month supply up .3 from last year.
I'm going to be watching this month over month to see where inventory numbers go but I wanted to post about this because there have been a lot of media companies (Goldman Sachs) out there that put San Diego in their headlines as one of the markets to take a hit in prices, but I don't see it happening anytime soon unless we really see an increase in our inventory supply. A lot of these media companies are just putting headlines out there for click bait and not actually looking at the data.
Demand for San Diego housing has and will continue to be one of the most desirable and competitive markets in the US.
I have read the Goldman articles in their entirety, as well as the USC and UCSD school of real estate articles projecting a major decrease in San Diego home values in 2023. The common thread about these articles actually has nothing to do with Supply/Demand; they don't cite the 2008 numbers and they don't make a claim toward the basic tenants of S&D that you would anticipate from any market-related projection.
What all 3 articles have in common is that they are using a "new way" of projecting market activity - they are looking at buyer activity across 3rd party applications online as a foreshadowing of future buyer demand...and it kind of makes sense to me. After all, buyers leave a HUGE digital footprint when looking to purchase a home: mortgage sopping, saved searched on Redfin, Zillow, Homesnap, etc., researching moving companies, UHauls, designers, and General Contractors.
So, I don't think we can throw the baby out with the bath water...if this data is way down, then buyer activity is likely to be a bit less this year.
However, buyer activity is 50% of the market's behavior, at best. The articles don't take into account inventory numbers, current seller positions (interest rates in the 3's and 4's) and motivation, buyer trends toward different asset classes, etc.
At best, it is interesting to see the data and start to apply it how we see fit...which would have to apply *projected* buyer behavior, like these articles are, against *projected* seller behavior...which these articles are not, IMO. The articles ar applying projected buyer behavior against the past 5-10 year average of seller data.
My $.02 - sellers aren't nearly as motivated as they have been in the last 12 years and prices will stay extremely strong in San Diego; buyer activity may even drop, as predicted by these articles, but it won't have a 20% dip in values and we may even see values continue to climb in 2023. My guess is that values trade sideways in 2023 and then continue to go up just as interest rates come down in 2024 (ELECTION YEAR - they always do)...so this year should present some good buying opportunity windows.
Hope that is helpful!
My view is you can find rationale and data for any position you take on future property increases. There are smart people predicting local market declines and other smart people indicating their is unlikely to be a significant decline.
What can statistically be shown is the prices have not fallen locally close to enough to compensate for the rate increases. This implies that the mortgage payment on financed properties will be significantly higher than at the begging of 2022. In some markets, about double the mortgage payment. This increase is far greater than the high inflation experienced in the past year. For this reason, underwriting is showing less properties to pencil out when using financing.
I have and continue to be taking a cautious approach. I continue to casually look at offerings (mostly off market), but have not purchased since Dec 2021 and have only made one offer (which ended up not being close) since that time.
Am I being too cautious? Maybe. Time will tell. Time did show I was too cautious at the beginning of Covid, but I do not have a crystal ball or a Time Machine. I am ok being cautious.
Good luck
Quote from @Dan Heuschele:
What can statistically be shown is the prices have not fallen locally close to enough to compensate for the rate increases. This implies that the mortgage payment on financed properties will be significantly higher than at the begging of 2022. In some markets, about double the mortgage payment. This increase is far greater than the high inflation experienced in the past year. For this reason, underwriting is showing less properties to pencil out when using financing.
Dan, you're the man. Purchasing power, especially for FTHB's, has been devastated by these rate increases. Coupled with asset pries rising and wages largely remaining stagnant, homes are becoming harder and harder for people to afford. So, to anyone reading this, if you and your spouse are both high income earners, you will likely find something you like. If you're coming in with 20%-100% down via cash or equity from the previous real estate run up, you will also be fine.
To everyone else... well, now you know who you're competing with.
Quote from @Joshua J Cawthorn:
Quote from @Dan Heuschele:
What can statistically be shown is the prices have not fallen locally close to enough to compensate for the rate increases. This implies that the mortgage payment on financed properties will be significantly higher than at the begging of 2022. In some markets, about double the mortgage payment. This increase is far greater than the high inflation experienced in the past year. For this reason, underwriting is showing less properties to pencil out when using financing.
Dan, you're the man. Purchasing power, especially for FTHB's, has been devastated by these rate increases. Coupled with asset pries rising and wages largely remaining stagnant, homes are becoming harder and harder for people to afford. So, to anyone reading this, if you and your spouse are both high income earners, you will likely find something you like. If you're coming in with 20%-100% down via cash or equity from the previous real estate run up, you will also be fine.
To everyone else... well, now you know who you're competing with.
If you sold a financed property and purchase similar property with same amount financed, your payment will be about double what your previous payment was.
The rate increase affects everyone who is using financing. The near doubling in monthly mortgage cost is making it difficult to find good investment properties. This is especially true because money market or CDs are providing effortless returns near 5%. For me this implies I require far in excess of 10% projected return (ideally ~20%) to consider RE purchase when factoring in effort/risk.
With Q1 of 2023 behind us and the first month of Q2 beginning it will be interesting to see if more homes start to hit the market as we enter into Spring.
To recap our active for sale inventory from February to March we saw an increase in the number of single family detached homes available for sale.
March saw 1,431 single family detached homes for sale roughly a 22% increase from the 1,174 available in February. We also saw an increase in the number of condos/townhomes available for sale up 17% in March.
Buyer demand has remained steady and the introduction of the Cal HFA shared appreciation program has generated a lot of new buyer demand as well.
If you are interested in know more stats about a certain zip code or area send me an email and I'd be happy to send you some stats on it.
New Listings for Detached Single Family Residences
-Inventory is starting to increase this year but we are still down considerably compared to March of 2022 where the number of single family detached homes for sale was 2,568 compared to 1,431 from this past March about a 44% difference in supply.
New Listings for Condos/Townhomes
-Condo/Townhomes are also still down considerably compared to March 2022's supply of 1,268 active listings for sale compared to 803 from this past month about a 37% difference in supply.
Pending (Under Contract) for Detached Single Family Residences
We saw 1,351 single family detached homes go under contract in March. There were a total of 1,431 new houses listed for sale in March. To put that in prospective 94% of these went under contract in March.
Pending (Under Contract) for Condos/Townhomes
We saw 799 condos/townhomes go under contract in March. There were a total of 803 new condos/townhomes listed for sale in March. To put that into prospective 99.5% of these went under contract in March.
Closed Sales for Detached Single Family Residences
A total of 1,330 homes were sold in March. ***(Not all homes that go under contract in that month will close that same month)***
Closed Sales for Condos/Townhomes
A total of 759 condos/townhomes were sold in March. ***(Not all condos/townhomes that go under contract in that month will close that same month)***
Median Sales Price for Detached Single Family Residences
January Median Sales Price: $849K
February Median Sales Price: $900K
March Median Sales Price: $940,500
Median Sales Price for Condos/Townhomes
January Median Sales Price: $590K
February Median Sales Price: $616K
March Median Sales Price: $635K
Today's Mortgage Rates
#3 All Forums Contributor
- Investor
- Northern Virginia
San Diego has a a higher rate of short term commercial debt coming due, with many of these properties underwater.
The issue forthcoming is several factors:
1. Bank liquidity - it’s going to get a lot more difficult to get a mortgage - this will lead to stress on prices
2. Job loss - lead to defaults
3. Interest rates - continued higher rates will put pressure on prices
4. Rental prices are slowly going down
All of these are leading towards a softening. Real estate is a slow moving process so just because a month after something happens there is no change doesn’t mean it’s not coming. Real estate did not hit its low until several years after a recession.
#3 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Kenny Simpson:
Quote from @Steve Meyers:
Hi All,
I've been getting a lot of questions regarding the San Diego market in particular and where prices are going etc so I wanted to pull the most recent data to compare last year's January to this one.
All properties saw an increase of 9.5% in prices from January 22 to January 23 which is displayed on the graph below.
I also pulled inventory numbers by price point in the second graph below. The average home price in San Diego is about $840K which currently has about a .9 month supply up .3 from last year.
I'm going to be watching this month over month to see where inventory numbers go but I wanted to post about this because there have been a lot of media companies (Goldman Sachs) out there that put San Diego in their headlines as one of the markets to take a hit in prices, but I don't see it happening anytime soon unless we really see an increase in our inventory supply. A lot of these media companies are just putting headlines out there for click bait and not actually looking at the data.
Demand for San Diego housing has and will continue to be one of the most desirable and competitive markets in the US.
Hi Steve,
There is lots of these Goldman type articles and people coming out and saying there is going to be a CRASH or correction. We cannot see the future but we can sure READ data. What I have found is that NONE of these DOOM and GLOOM media pieces are ever backed by DATA to support. It always comes down to supply and demand, before the last crash in 2008 go look up how many homes were on the market in SD, 27K I believe and now there is less than 3K. Yes the FEDS pushed rates down, the 30 year hit 7.5% and the market STOPPED, now the 30 year fixed is high 5's and tons of offers on properties. We also did NOT build enough here or anywhere since 2009. We will keep watching but we would need a massive increase in supply or the 30 year fix to go to 7.5% again to slow things down. Demand can change quickly, but supply is the challenge and when lots of people are sitting on sub 4%, 3% fixed rates, they are NOT very motivated to do anything.
Media is contrarian indicator. If media is saying we're going to crash that's most of the time actual real time data is saying it's bottom. When media saying everything is good, then it's time to sell.
Hi All,
With Q2 of 2023 well under way, I wanted to recap what we saw in April now that market stats for last month are available.
In April we saw 1,312 single family detached homes for sale roughly an 8% decrease from the 1,431 availble inventory in March. We also saw a decrease in the number of condos/townhomes available for sale down from 803 in March to 696 in April about a 13% decrease in inventory.
Buyer demand continues to remain strong in most areas of the county and mutiple offers are still happening as well. We saw a 99.7% list price to sales price for single family detached homes in April and 100.3% list price to sales price for condos/townhomes in April. In layman's terms sellers were getting either their listing price or over the listing price last month for their property.
If you are interested in knowing stats for a certain area or zip code just respond back to this email and I would be happy to send you some market stats on it!
New Listings for Detached Single Family Residences
-In April we saw 1,312 new listings for single family detached homes hit the market. Down about 8% from the 1,431 we saw in March. The increase in supply we saw from February to March quickly got erased with the 8% decrease in suppy from March to April.
New Listings for Condos/Townhomes
-We also saw a decrease in the number of condos/townhomes available for sale down from 803 in March to 696 in April about a 13% decrease in inventory.
Pending (Under Contract) for Detached Single Family Residences
We saw 1,291 single family detached homes go under contract in April. There were a total of 1,312 new houses listed for sale in April. 98% of homes listed in April went under contract in that same month.
Pending (Under Contract) for Condos/Townhomes
We saw 729 condos/townhomes go under contract in April. There were a total of 696 new condos/townhomes listed for sale in April. Meaning all the condos/townhomes that were listed in April went under contract and the additional 33 condos/townhomes were carry over listings from March.
Closed Sales for Detached Single Family Residences
A total of 1,182 homes were sold in April. ***(Not all homes that go under contract in that month will close that same month)***
Closed Sales for Condos/Townhomes
A total of 694 condos/townhomes were sold in April. ***(Not all condos/townhomes that go under contract in that month will close that same month)***
Median Sales Price for Detached Single Family Residences from Jan-April
January Median Sales Price: $849,000
February Median Sales Price: $900,000
March Median Sales Price: $940,500
April Median Sales Price: $952,600 (Up $103,600 since January)
Median Sales Price for Condos/Townhomes from Jan-April
January Median Sales Price: $590,000
February Median Sales Price: $616,000
March Median Sales Price: $635,000
April Median Sales Price: $640,000 (Up $50,000 since January)
Today's Mortgage Rates
Now that we are almost officially into the summer market here in San Diego. I wanted to do a recap of what we saw in May now that market stats for last month are available.
In May we saw 1,514 single family detached homes hit the market up roughly 15% from the 1,312 number from April. We also saw a 22% increase in the supply of condos/townhomes available from 696 in April to 894 in May! This is great news for our inventory numbers as we head into summer. Hopefully inventory numbers will keep trending upward!
The fed's next meeting is June 13th-14th. The last fed meeting in March the fed raised interest rates by .25. It's unclear if we are set for another rate hike or not. Despite rates being higher the lack of supply has helped to insulate prices still. We are still a long way away from a balance of supply and demand. A lot more new construction communities are starting to become available as well.
If you are interested in knowing stats for a certain area or zip code just respond back to this email and I would be happy to send you some market stats on it!
New Listings for Detached Single Family Residences
-In May we saw 1,514 new listings for single family detached homes hit the market. Up about 15% from the 1,312 we saw in April!
New Listings for Condos/Townhomes
-We also saw an increase in the number of condos/townhomes available for sale up from the 696 in April to 894 in May a 22% increase in supply!
Pending (Under Contract) for Detached Single Family Residences
We saw 1,341 single family detached homes go under contract in May. There were a total of 1,514 new homes listed for sale in May. 88% of homes listed in May went under contract in May.
Pending (Under Contract) for Condos/Townhomes
We saw 787 condos/townhomes go under contract in May. There was a total of 894 new condos/townhomes listed for sale in May. 88% of the condos/townhomes in May went under contract in May.
Closed Sales for Detached Single Family Residences
A total of 1,370 homes were sold in May. ***(Not all homes that go under contract in that month will close that same month)***
Closed Sales for Condos/Townhomes
A total of 780 condos/townhomes were sold in May. ***(Not all condos/townhomes that go under contract in that month will close that same month)***
Median Sales Price for Detached Single Family Residences from Jan-April
January Median Sales Price: $849,000
February Median Sales Price: $900,000
March Median Sales Price: $940,500
April Median Sales Price: $952,600
May Median Sales Price: $955,000 (Up $106,000 since January)
Median Sales Price for Condos/Townhomes from Jan-April
January Median Sales Price: $590,000
February Median Sales Price: $616,000
March Median Sales Price: $635,000
April Median Sales Price: $640,000
May Median Sales Price: $640,000 (Up $50,000 since January)
Today's Mortgage Rates
