7,000,000 people now living within 50 miles of DFW airport and growing at @ 150,000 per year. Unemployment rate of 5.5% and dropping. I'm holding onto most of my stuff, and looking to selectively buy more.
Selling is hard. Especially as now there is no where to go with the proceeds... Austin is in the same boat. I am putting my faith in the old adage "prices are sticky on the way down.". I dont see any bargains surfacing in the near future, so why sell?
For some reason, the chart I uploaded isn't appearing on my post.
Here's a link to the chart:
I haven't seen softness, but I've got mostly land, commercial, and $1000/mo rentals.
Originally posted by @Jon Strishak:
Please don't take this personally, but you are both in Texas. I'd be interested to see how many other out of state investors agree. I see several other markets that present good opportunities.
Yes, I've been in DFW for a long time, but I'm putting more into Austin than Dallas.
@Account Closed Your chart shows the median price but it doesn't show the price that an investor pays. If the investor is purchasing at full retail then it probably doesn't make a lot of sense to be putting money to work in a declining market.
However, if you're buying below market then a declining market might not matter. You just lower your bid on the purchase price. DOM would bother me more than a declining price unless the price decline is double digits month over month.
I believe the declining price will impact flippers that are buying on the fringe. In Austin, you see people purchasing flips with exits that are above market because they are betting on the appreciation in future months.
The chart is high, way high. The median price is approaching 390k? Why cant I sell my home for that then?
Full disclosure: I currently own properties throughout North Dallas. My properties cash flow quite nicely, so I have not yet sold. That said, I am considering it, so I thought this would be a good conversation to have. Long-term I'm definitely bullish on DFW. It's got a lot going for it, including the high-speed bullet train financed by private money, which will be built between Dallas and Houston in next 6 years (see:
I don't think there is a question that the RE market in TX, particularly the DFW, has boomed and is somewhat near the top. Simply looking at current cap rates that assets are trading will show that they are at historic highs. Does that mean we are at the top? Nobody knows for sure and anything can happen (acts of God, law changes, government intervention, etc.), however, charts show that there is still room for growth.
It is more than difficult to find a good deal in this market, but that does not mean that a savvy investor could not find one. There are still deals to be had, and your specific strategy will determine if this market is right for you or not.
There are better markets than Texas right now, undeniably. But I only buy in my area and like Jon my properties are profitable now and for the foreseeable future. Buy low, sell high works well for stocks---i cant seem to manage it :-)-- but my small portfolio of properties are going to be paid off in 10-12 years and hopefully fund the retirement years. Besides, buy and hold is tax effiecent.
I may sell my personal residence while the market is hot...no capital gains. Prices may be going down but there is still only about a 3-4 month supply of homes in even the least desirable areas of the Austin area.
Yes, selling your personal residence might be a good idea. I have several friends who sold their million dollar homes in San Francisco and became renters when the market peaked in 2007. They they started investing in DFW and all did quite well.
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