Looking to buy in area that will double value in 1 to 2 years

128 Replies

Some of Miami's condos are like 4 times more in value than they were in 2009

IN Asuncion (Paraguay ) real estate prices are 5 times higher  than in 2010 (500%!!!)

I am just looking to buy in a Market where prices are going to double in 1 to 2 years

Where do you think that prices are going to jump?

There wont be any. 

And I'd like to be rich and beautiful, but look where I am! lol

#1) If you're looking for asset prices to double in a year or two without any work at this point in the cycle, I think you are taking a big gamble. Unlikely future increases will follow their previous tear (although damn, that was nice ;)

#2) If you're really looking to double your money (and again, comes with significant risk), most people are doing it through flipping, entitling land, or "speculating' on land value increases. Land tends to go up the most relative to other property asset classes as property prices are increasing. You may also consider options to produce they highest risk/highest return profile.

That's a TALL order! Good luck!

Vietnam is likely poised for a big run up in prices.

Check out the Donetsk People's Republic in Ukraine. .10 on the dollar. You won't find tenants for a while and and watch out for the bombs and shelling from Russia but if you hold long enough ...

You will have your answer at the same time as the rest of us - after it has happened. The only other question is: will you have been brave enough to invest in those areas, before knowing the answer?! Cheers...

Based on what I've read we are at the top of a cycle, at least where I'm at.

@Chai Sag  in my opinion, you are looking for the "easy" score.  Real estate investing (and most investments for that matter) are simple, but certainly not easy.  What you are looking for is the equivalent of stock investing where you go all in on the next "hot tip" and hope it pays off.  You have a better chance of losing everything you gamble....or getting struck by lightning.

Slow down!  You may eventually hit it out of the park with a good buy.  Maybe you will even be fortunate to stumble into the right market to buy and see big gains.  That will likely be sheer luck.

For the rest of your investing career, you would be wise to study how to make a consistent and steady return on your money and do so with the goal of never losing on a deal.  You will end up much farther ahead over your lifetime than trying to go all in on one particular area hoping for crazy appreciation.  There are many more ways to make money in real estate than just simple appreciation.  Study up on cash flow, appreciation, loan amortization, exchanging, as well as equity gains.

Personally, I started out with literally nothing.  I started investing using other people's money because I didn't have any myself.  I picked a couple of losers, but learned (and recovered) from them and have dialed in my investments to what works well for me and what I do well.  I stay within my comfort range and I am buying larger properties as my investments grow.  My net worth is approaching 7 figures.  What I invest in is not glamorous, but it makes money and I have multiple exit strategies built in where I can't lose, so I work with a safety net.

In my opinion, you need to take a better look at your investment approach before moving forward.  Your strategy appears to be more gambling than investing.

Good luck and happy investing.

There likely will be some markets that will double in the next couple years , but I agree there would be as many as when money was " easy and free" . Also prices came up a lot from the crash because they had gone down so much . By now a lot of markets have recovered . You mentioned Miami and since I've been looking closer at the market , I've seen that there are lower priced areas still . If Miami continues to grow , then it's a matter of time before these areas change . It's already happened in some of the areas . It reminds me a lot of what happened in Los Angeles with downtown LA and areas like Echo Park . Places that people used to avoid that then became hotspots .

Look to where the artists are moving in. People seem to want to live near artists even if they aren't artists themselves . The demographics of an area seems to typically go from artists , then hipsters , then "yuppies" or more "mainstream types "

You'll want to look closely at what types of businesses are opening in the area . Bars , gastropubs , yoga studios , coffee shops , galleries are all pretty good indicators. Any business pretending themselves ironically or tongue in cheek is a good sign . These are signs of the early gentrifiers planting their flag saying basically , " we approve this area, this is the new cool" . Research who owns the businesses . If a bar owner was a pioneer in other hip areas in the past and was " early" to the area they likely know what they are doing .

I noticed this recently in L.A , there was a new bar that opened and it was totally packed with hipsters , it turns out it's owned by a group that owns a bunch of other bars that are successful .

When you start seeing too many strollers on the side walk , the neighborhood has likely peaked. You want to wait and sell to someone that owns a stroller, then it's time to find the next hot area .

Even if you get this all right though and find the next hot neighborhood ,there's no guarantee that it will double in two years .

I feel there are two different types of neighborhoods . Those areas that people " have " to live in because it's cheap and that's what they can afford and then those areas people want to live in .

Betting on gentrification is tricky because you buying in an area that you hope people want to live in , in the future but don't realize it . The key is to find something that cash flows well while you are waiting for the appreciation . The issue though is that not totally desirable areas means not totally desirable tenants sometimes .

You want the next Downtown Los Angeles , Williamsburg , New York .

But if you think about it , if you are buying with leverage like many investors do or wish to do , then even if the actual property price doesn't double your returns will still be over 100% on the money invested , even if the property goes up a more modest amount like 30% for example.

Let us know what you find , before it doubles please!

Well I don't know about double but you can certainly make some impressive gains in the Northeast. I will use my own town as an example. I bought a new construction condo in August 2013. Appraisal came back at 240k. Purchase price was 237,900. I had an appraisal done about a month ago and it came back at 262k. When I first looked into refi'ing I just wanted to reduce my rate from 4.125 to 3.5 as I plan to hold as a long term rental when I move.

I decided to do a cash out refi. I walked away with about 22k after closing costs. I know values will increase substantially in the next 5 years. This is due to increasing prices in the DC metro area as a whole but the closest county to me, Montgomery county, the prices are moving up so fast that most people are being priced out of the market. I live in Frederick, MD by the way. The prices are increasing but they're not outrageous as Montgomery county. To put things into perspective, the EXACT same condo I live in, built by the same builder, was going for a 300K base price when I bought in 2013. Mine on the other hand was a 210K base price.

We have seen prices in our city go up 30-50% in the last year in sub 70k or so properties. I don't pay attention to houses above that level so I don't know. I don't buy based upon possible appreciation though, only cash flow. I 'think' we will see continued growth this year. Downturn is inevitable in 2-3 years I bet. 

don't listen to anyone who tells you it isn't there. It's there. Sounds like you're willing to go international. I'm pretty bullish on Vietnam. Look at all your clothing labels. Used to be made in China. Now, China is too expensive. Jus sayin.

Look into Greece, Spain, Russia, maybe Cuba. Cuba could be an upside bet if Obama finally kills the trade embargo.

in all of these countries, go into urban areas. This is where they will be experiencing their industrial revolution. Moscow is out (already expensive), but there are outer pockets that can perform well. Think Hoi An or Dalat. Also, come with big money and the willingness to bribe local officials. It's usually legal and sometimes expected.

there are areas in New Orleans where I'm tripling my money in six months, but it's through rehab, not macro appreciation.

Double your money?  Vegas or Wall Street.  Not houses....

Originally posted by @Serge S. :

Check out the Donetsk People's Republic in Ukraine. .10 on the dollar. You won't find tenants for a while and and watch out for the bombs and shelling from Russia but if you hold long enough ...

 Serge - you think we can get our buddy, @Brian Burke  , to go in with us?  You got me thinking...

Thank you so much for all responses

@Curt Davis there always are

@J. Martin Its not a big gamble it is to identify a picking up area that shows signgs of grow

@Serge S. I have friends that made 10 times their money in Ukraine in 1990's

@Brent Coombs I want to have the answer now

@Michael Phillips All markets are different ( and 1 area goes up, right away you hear that) I heard saying that in Miami in 2011

@Adam Johnson I am investing in my area ,(bought 3 SFM,around 900k)but I am looking for an area to diversify my portfolio with signs of running up in values

@Joseph M I agree with proximity to Miami, and I am asking tosee if someone is seeing these signs of run up prices that you mention, new business, strollers, yuppies

yes, I want the next Hoboken, Crown Heights,Brooklyn,Miami

@Shawn Dandridge Do you see people moving to your area?

@Joe Pickett Nice. You will be surprised if they keep going up

@David Hoang Cuba is very dangerous, like Venezuela,they can take out your real estate possesions,

@David Migdett looking for houses,condos

@Jonathan Key I am asking here bellow

@Ben Leybovich I am also ready to go

@Chai Sag   It's not going be that easy, come on! One thing I noticed after the crash is how TRUE it is that most people freak out when prices are falling/the media is reporting panic. I also noticed that all the smart investors went on a buying spree and made mass amounts of profits. 

If you're looking to play that game, I'd say just make sure you have a big capital stack, or access to capital that won't be scared to buy when everyone else is running away. Next time there is a down turn, go shopping! 

I did this, and still am doing it, in a midwest market. I wish I had the knowledge to take advantage of my local market (SoCal) the same way before the prices rose again. I missed the boat on this cycle here, that won't happen again!

@Ben Leybovich   Poor Ben, the hunt for that big syndication deal is driving you mad :) 

@Chai Sag  

  buy a property today at 50% of market value they are all over the place.. you get instant equity do not even have to wait a year or two....

@Mehran K.  - more like guys buying for the delta arbitrage are driving me a little mad.  Try as I may to cross over to that thinking, the only thing crossed at the end of the day are my eyeballs...

@Ben Leybovich  

  maybe you should try a different line of work... You could syndicate any number of small business ideas that will create much better cash flow and 7 to 8%...

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs :

@Ben Leybovich  

  maybe you should try a different line of work... You could syndicate any number of small business ideas that will create much better cash flow and 7 to 8%...

 Agreed! If its not there its not there.

OP wants to double his money. Don't we all. Yes some people made 10x in Ukraine in the 90s and just as much in Moscow in 98. Others killed in in Spain in 2009 and are working Greece today. I love buying major distress like the next guy. But I'm a big believer in mastering a market (or a few) and building a competitive advantage. I work Arizona and can tell you that by the time you see a deal from your desk in California it has been passed over by numerous locals for good reason. Trying to double your money from a distance without getting your hands dirty? Might as well find a local game of dice and crack open the Ole English 800 40 oz.

The amount of risk in certain international markets is borderline absurd. If you think you will find deals that locals cannot think again. And good luck navigating the legal nightmare. You can buy apartment blocks of 200 units in Crimea for well under 80% of what they were just 2 years ago. Then hold on and hope one of Putin's "friends" does not repossess. Oh ****, now I'm on some Russian database tagged as an enemy of the state. 


And don't forget - some people get shot over there...  **** - I have a concealed carry license in Ohio; forget Ukraine :( 

@Serge S.  

  Out of country is not a place I care to play I can do just fine here in the good Ole US of A

I worked on one very large Timber deal in Mexico about 15 years ago... It was in Baja there is some incredible old growth Yellow pine above 8k foot running down the spine of N Baja mountains.. It was complicated .. wrong language.. the guys pitching it really did not understand timber.. ( I was in the timber industry at the time) So I spent the bet 7k of my life I hired Mason Bruce and Gerard  ( big Timber management company) they flew one of their folks to Mexico city hired a Mexican attorney.. UP shot this of ajedo land ( Mexican Indians with tribal rights) could not figure out land ownership.. I passed

Another Portland RE guys got stars in his eyes.. and pitchs me the deal about 6 years later and I said Jordan you have not actually sent money to Mexican seller have you... ( answer yes) to the tune of 1.2 million.. well it went puff and he was screwed.. the same Mexicans have been shopping that deal for 30 years suckering people in then on to the next person looking for that shinny object... I Have bought in Canada though and felt good there.

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