New Rental Data for 70 Metro Areas

30 Replies

The National Association of Realtors just released some very useful rental data for 70 metro areas showing information like the % change of income for renters from 2009-2014, % change in number of renter households, and % change in number of owner households.

For example, in Tulsa, Oklahoma, rents increased by 11.03% from 2009 - 2014 while renter income increased by 17.05%. The number of renter households increased by 5.69% while the number of owner households decreased by 11.59% during the same time frame (a lot of people moving back in with family or sharing housing!).

Here is a link to the original article and tabular data.

Edit: I tried to post the tabular data but the forum doesn't display tables correctly. If anyone knows how to post tables to the forum and maintain the formatting, please PM me.

@Nate Garrett thanks for the data. Denver Colorado up about 25% rent increase, 20% income increase, 25% mortgage payment increase and 13% more renters with 7% fewer households. Here I think it's a shift (young people moving and renting) and a housing shortage have to double up since there aren't enough places to rent.

any info in the NY area?

@James Post yes click on the blue text in @Nate Garrett 's post for "tabular data" and go to the second page. FYI rents are up 50%. Wow.

@James Post

Yes, of course. Just click the link in my original post to the tabular data, there are several New York metros listed in the data.

Thanks for sharing.  I think we are definitely feeling this in Denver CO.  I am sometimes concerned that we're moving to a top of a bubble that won't be able to sustain these home values and price increases.  Good to see incomes increases although not in line with housing increases. 

Awesome info Nate. Thanks for sharing.

@Nate Garrett

  thank you... some interesting data.. need to be north of 15% rent increase to be above national average... the Pacific northwest which is really under the radar was a top performer.

and look at the income growth in Utah... and we know why that is... most of the Gurus marketing arms are centered there and we know how much those guru's are making off of US folks wanting to crack into Real Estate rich's.... :)

@Nate Garrett  and then gov't makes it easier to buy and next thing you know all the good tenants have bought. Then we are left with a lower level tenant and vacancies...at least that is what happened last time.

Thanks for sharing. Very interesting. 

@Nate Garrett

thanks for the info. In general I think this is validation for buying rental properties.

Thanks for sharing.  Very insightful information. 

Nate,

The data looks a little off for San Francisco area.  Rents is up 13% in the last 5 years while income is up 19%?  Sounds good on paper, but the SF renters would violently disagree, wouldn't you say @Amit M. , @Johnson H. and @J. Martin ?

The median home price for San Jose and San Francisco area makes one want to vomit.  Way too much tech and oversea money sloshing in the Bay.

Originally posted by @Minh Le :

Nate,

The data looks a little off for San Francisco area.  Rents is up 13% in the last 5 years while income is up 19%?  Sounds good on paper, but the SF renters would violently disagree, wouldn't you say @Amit M. , @Johnson H. and @J. Martin?

The median home price for San Jose and San Francisco area makes one want to vomit.  Way too much tech and oversea money sloshing in the Bay.

WRONG! It's higher than that!

Interestingly, the SF/Oakland/Fremont metro was one of few whose income growth is listed as higher than rent growth. Not sure if the 13.2% rent growth over the last 5 years includes all existing rents, including all the rent controlled units in this area..? Because rents have gone up almost that much just last year in a lot of SF and Oakland.

9.1% rent growth in the last year through Q3 '14 was quoted by Bloomberg for Oakland, so that means the prior 4 years had cumulative increases of 4.1%, or less than 1% per year compounded? I don't think so..

http://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/311/topics/160...

I'm not sure if the NAR is measuring in a different SF Bay Area than I live, rent, and breathe in..?!

As an aside, I noticed the mortgage payment and median home price for Detroit in the spreadsheet said N/A. They couldn't even calculate it! lol

HOW ABOUT THIS STRATEGY?

Look at the cities that have the largest spread between increases in rents and increases (or even better, decreases in mortgage payments.) These should be the areas with the best change in rent ratios for landlords, because gross rents  have gone up more than most of the fixed costs, relative to other geographic areas.. In other words, cash flow should have increased over the last 5 years in these areas.. This is of course just one filter, but popped into my head when looking at the spreadsheet..

Starting with those that have had declines in mortgage payments, but increases in rents..

Albuquerque rent changes were about 18% higher than mortgage payments over last 5yr..

Baltimore - 24%

Hartford - 19%

Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, Tuscon - 18%

VIRGINIA BEACH! With almost a 24% spread between increases in rents and decreases in mortgages.. A 12% increase in rents, while mortgage payments declined by about the same..  @Elizabeth Colegrove, time to buy..?

BUT WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER GOES TO NYC!

It is the only one on this list that did NOT have a decline in mortgage payments (stayed flat as interest rates fell and prices increased). But with a whopping

50% increase in rents, the flat mortgage payments made the New York City metro area the most improved cash from 2009 to 2014 on this list, by my calculation..

@Amit M., @Johnson H., @Minh Le, @Bob Bowling, @Arlen Chou and other equity guys

, is this NYC statistic one more piece of support of the increasing rents and cash flow in prime areas?.. (especially when the Fed winds are at your back ;)

J. M.

 The alarming statistic is the decrease of % change of income for renters. That to me sends up red flags of higher defaults. The best spot I can see from the chart is Dayton Ohio 10% rent increase vs a 32% wage increase . Dallas, Denver look very healthy Miami has some red flags as some others Great time to be a landlord and home seller/flipper.

It would be hard for Fox News to report that there is no recovery The stats are very encouraging with significant wage growth thru multiple areas

Originally posted by @Steven Picker :

J. M.

 It would be hard for Fox News to report that there is no recovery The stats are very encouraging with significant wage growth thru multiple areas

 No, it's easy to imagine Fox News reporting that.  What's hard to imagine is that anyone would believe such a Fox News report. ;-)

I guess Honolulu county isn't important enough. Shucks..

@Bill S.

So how do you think these changes in the market on the front range of Colorado will affect the market on the western slope?  I am currently seeing the price ceiling rise and more  expensive property is starting to move.  Could it be that people selling in the high priced front range are taking the cash west ward?

SF rent increases over the last 5 years is more like 50%. Anecdotally that matches my experiences with my rentals in 2 different SF neighborhoods. 

Good data on high appreciation/blue chip real estate. This illustrates that yesterday's cashflow doesn't equal future or even today's cashflow. And I won't even go into the equity increase in the last 3 years, which allowed me to pull cash out and buy 2 more SF investments recently. I'm happy. 

@Robert Warren I don't personally know anyone taking $ from the front range to the Western slope. Doesn't mean it isn't happening. I think some might be moving money to the mountains for personal reasons (want a mtn prop) but don't know of nor have heard of anyone doing it as an investment strategy. All the money out of the front range that I've heard of is going to the rust belt for cash flow.

Join the Largest Real Estate Investing Community

Basic membership is free, forever.

By signing up, you indicate that you agree to the BiggerPockets Terms & Conditions.