Every Recession Needs a Cause

2 Replies

So, in other words start looking at ways to capitalize on businesses that will be failing and defaulting on their debt due to these loans. This could affect real estate, but more so in the commercial realm. As corporations fold due to their debt obligations they will ultimately fail on their leases or mortgages. 

Not a cause, but a sign:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/22/business/yield-...

I think the market is craving a recession.  Everyone thinks one is coming and they just want it to happen already and get it over with.

My armchair economist theory:  There are so many people waiting for the next slowdown, that it won't be a severe one, because there will be so many people waiting on the sidelines to invest in a trough again.  But then we may be more vulnerable if there's a true recession as an aftershock that nobody sees coming.

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