All Forum Posts by: Wilson Hunter

I’ve been on the buy train for cabins up until about 2 weeks ago, and my change of opinion has nothing to do with interest rates. For the first time you see some correction in the macro data for summer rental occupancy and nightly rates, and with ultra competitive buyer sentiment giving tight or no margin on current prices because they’re priced not only for historically high COVID rates but for projecting HIGHER than those rates, I have to think that means we’ll see a correlated sale price correction after 2022 summer gross is below 2021 summer. You still win longterm by buying, I’d just wait 3 months to see what’s up.

That said, I'm under contract on a beach property that has totally different market dynamics. Getting an STR is still a lot better than hoarding cash or playing too much in longterm stocks.

Edit: pretty much exactly what Ryan said! Ha…

Has anyone noticed the spiking ADR this year on Hatteras? Some of the old school prop managers decided to increase their prices anywhere from 20% to 50% this summer compared to last summer. Given that they seem to have so much power over market dynamics (low number of self managers) I wonder if we’ll see a corresponding property value increase once the summer rental revenue is on the books.

Thanks for the feedback. I saw some market data for occupancy that shows 85% for 1/2 BR 75th percentile STRs plus nearly fully booked rent rolls of several cabins currently on the MLS which made me do a double-take on the weekender reputation.

Some of these listings are getting into LTR cap rate territory...

1/1 listed at $695k hit the market today. Amazing view and location but needs updating (appliances, stain, woodpecker damage). Insane! This continues to match my expectations last year of “this won’t stop until things are consistently selling for 10x revenue multiple,” and Collin covers this in his post.

I saw a 1/1 with mediocre distant view hit the market today for mid-600s… Absolutely insane. Personally I don’t think it’s likely to revert to 2020 levels because the asset was for sure mispriced then even with the nightly rents at that time, but 2022 prices seem nuts. 2021 summer prices made a lot of sense for the market to me. I’d be concerned about stuff that has low actual real estate value like a 1970s A-frame with no view going for bonkers prices just because A-frames are trendy on Airbnb. They were good buys when they were seen as “cheap real estate” that cash flow well and priced accordingly. It’s also interesting to see wood paneling slapped onto a cheap box costs basically the same as a log cabin because investors have collapsed them into one category.

If you are vacationing in an actual vacation market then Airbnb and VRBO stays might as well be interchangeable (and many properties are listed on both). If you’re traveling for business and using these stays as an alternative to hotels, then Airbnb has a lot more janky stuff going on. But to judge a property as “an Airbnb” or “a VRBO house” misses the point of using these platforms for listing various types of short term stays, and I hope that my mountain cabin isn’t considered “an Airbnb” and compared to some drug den rental arbitrage operation in LA just because someone booked my place on the Airbnb platform when they could have chosen VRBO for the same thing.

This is a great post! Thanks for the content, Collin.

From my perspective, in addition to the mean/average data, last year you could still find some outlier deals based mostly on location or identifying a few key features/amenities that buyers hadn’t caught up to. I bought a place last summer that is proving to be a 4.5x revenue multiple. This year I haven’t seen a single opportunity like that - the closest thing I had was a manufactured cabin that fell out of contract on closing day due to title problems. It seems that even the 25 min drive cabins that people were undervaluing a bit caught up big time in the fall.

I’m currently under contract on something in Blue Ridge and will reassess my Smokies strategy after this summer.

Blue Ridge, GA vs Broken Bow, OK. These STR cabin markets seem similar to me - smaller vacation destinations for nearby drivable major metros. There's a strong emphasis on the "cabin experience" in these markets, in that city folk often come out to hang out in the cabin for a few days and not do a whole lot more. This is different than Pigeon Forge and Branson vibes which have tons of tourist attractions, and many guests use their STR cabin as a "launch pad" for doing touristy things.

So what’s the point of this post? Really I want to hear if others agree with this Broken Bow vs Blue Ridge comp and also pontificate on why prices (both cost of cabin and nightly rates) are way higher in Broken Bow right now. Is perhaps Blue Ridge super up-and-coming, or are there major market differences that will keep Broken Bow as the premium price point over Blue Ridge?

I don't know why someone would hustle to get a million bucks cash by 40 and then spend it all to produce the equivalent of a passive teacher's salary (syndications). You're leaving so much hustle/IQ equity on the table where you could do double or triple that with minimal effort. With max effort and utilizing leverage you could use the million to make a quarter to a half mil per year with awesome tax benefits.

Whenever I see posts like this I'm a bit confused because it's like a hustle entrepreneur turns into a super timid Dave Ramsey overnight. Maybe it's burnout and I'm just not at that point/age yet to understand. No offense, but it's confusing to see the entrepreneurial 180, and I'd encourage anyone who made it that far to not just throw in the towel and do something easy.