Have you been paying attention to all of the talk about what type of recession we are in? Well, actually if you listen to some people, we are in full blown depression!
But for those of us who realize that while times are tough… more then likely we are in a recession… not a nice one… but a recession non-the-less.
The talk of late is whether we are starting to climb out of this current recession. All of the politicians and bureaucrats want us to believe that we are on our way back up and that this recession was a typical V shaped event.
Are You Buying It?
Hey… why not? The stock market is up. Home sales are up. Even home prices in some areas are on the increase. But is this real? Or an illusion driven by Government incentives and wishful thinking?
I believe it is more of the later then the former. Why? Because as I’ve written in the past several articles there is just too much still happening. Unemployment is still heading in the wrong direction. It is pretty much an accepted fact that much of the increase in home sales is due to the $8K grant program… or in some areas like California over 60% of the sales are to investors. Banks are lending less… not more.
It just doesn’t feel right!
Enter Dr. Doom!
If you have read about Dr. Doom (AKA Nouriel Roubini) the very same guy that predicted the housing collapse and the current recession much to the chagrin to everyone… you know that he is not convinced that we are out of the woods… and we may be in for long drawn out recovery which would represent that U in the title.
I put the W in there for effect… but lets hope we don’t double-dip this recession!
Now back to Dr. Doom. I like to follow what he says because as of late, like it or not, he has been right on the money. And what is he saying now?
As discussed in this article “Dr. Doom” predicts further drop in housing market,” Dr. Doom is saying we aren’t done yet. There is still more pain regarding foreclosures (we know that already) but his perspective on the commercial crap which is about to hit the fan is interesting. Read the article.
OK… what are we to do?
For every real estate investor reading this… keep doing what you have been doing. Keep a watchful eye out for signs of that drawn out U recovery and for those investors who are savvy enough… and I know I don’t need to be telling you this… commercial real estate is where the next big game is.
WOW… That was profound… wasn’t it?
But, Before I sign off I would like to provide one very BIG caution… if you are only now getting into this game and you have visions of commercial sugar plums dancing around in your head… be careful. Be very, very careful.
The commerical world is not a world for wimps or beginners. If you don’t believe me… just ask the thousands of investors who are about to default on their commerical loans because they saw easy money and had no idea how to capture or no business pursuing it.
As always your feedback is welcome.