That is one word I grant you. But, sadly, something fewer and fewer people seem to be doing when it comes to critical analysis of the near term prospects for the real estate market in the U.S. (And, yes, I know the real estate “market” is a patchwork of many markets dotted across the foreclosed landscape, but I am talking about the overall health of the entire industry and not just one or two isolated areas.)
There is so much wishful thinking that is not fact based, that every time I read a brief story quoting figures showing a meager “recovery” in the real estate market in one place or another, I can usually find, often within hours on the net, posts and articles proclaiming the end of the real estate slump in the U.S.
Now, think: While the government is apparently ready to announce the official end of the recession as we know it—jobs losses continue to mount and no end to that is expected anytime soon from anyone with a real brain.
Now, think: As more and more people are thrown out of work or unable to recapture a place in the job market–which is what the government is also predicting—does this REALLY sound like a climate that can nurture meaningful recovery in the real estate markets of the U.S.?
Now, think: With hundreds of thousands of mortgages set to reset over the next several months to much, much higher interest rates, does this REALLY sound like a healing process is underway?
Now, think: As the $8 thousand dollar tax incentive for first time home buyers is set to come to an abrupt end, and no sure thing it will be extended or inflated or both, does this REALLY sound as if there will be a growing stream of would-be home buyers just waiting in the wings?
Now, think: With commercial real estate mortgages on the rocks and soon expected to start showing up in, perhaps, record numbers, does this REALLY sound as if progress is being made to repair the badly broken real estate market in this country?
I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade…really I am not. But I AM trying to point out that the parade is still very premature and its planned route greatly uncertain.
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