How Not to Turn Into a Turn Key Real Estate Economist


“Confront the brutal facts, but never lose hope that in the end you will prevail” – Jim Stockdale

C.S Lewis warned us of the perils of other people’s opinion quietly creeping into our system.  How the things we say and believe seldom come from our own original thought analysis. 

I remembered this stern warning as I was driving home thinking about the pervasive negativity hanging on our economy.  Our economic confidence index is at -35, consumers are more fearful than ever.  And why wouldn’t they? The here and now screams panic from almost all angles — unemployment, pitiful commercial real estate, 5-year construction decline, our country’s rapidly sinking dept crisis.  You know the drill.

And fret not, I’m not about to hold my pom-poms, Kiyosaki book at hand, yelling enthused quotations that starts with maverick – toned, “Money is Made…” Two of my closest friends in the world bought 8 properties in 2007-2008 because their snobby little investor group flagrantly affirmed them this statement with the precursor of a sure market bottom.  Both now owe $150,000 in cash to investors.

The real estate market is a living organism, capable of extreme highs and lows.  Like our darlings, it has varying mood swings, and like their knights, could be utterly, predictably stubborn.  It is a living, beating, organism.  There are times when it defies logic — rebelling against it’s surroundings yet all of a sudden flipping into a very willing follower of history. Go figure.  You can’t.

Black swan, baby. It goes both ways.

“ other words, while most human thought (particularly since the enlightenment) has focused us on how to turn knowledge into decisions, I focus on how to turn lack of information, lack of understanding, and lack of “knowledge” into decisions –how not to be a ‘turkey’” – The Black Swan

Until last week, I used to isolate black swan events to economic disasters, stock market failures….. FEAR.  I say, why don’t we try to treat the other kid with the same contempt? Recovery is as unpredictable as failure. HOPE…  It also has a black swan.  Don’t ask me how it’s going to happen ‘coz I haven’t the foggiest idea.  Sometimes, it helps being like a child.

Billions were made in 2003the start of a wildly successful stock bull market (which was only ended by this great recession).  A mere two years from the dreaded event in New York.

I plead with you to submit to being fooled by randomness.  Eagerly waiting like a school girl with giggles and sighs.  It could happen, you know.

About Author

Fascinated with business models more than super models. Joe is a real estate blogger from Northern NV (based in Reno) stalking the Reno- Lake Tahoe Real Estate market since 2007. He is most at ease (and peaceful) when at home spending time with his beautiful wife Anna and their two kids. (And watching the 2011 2013 NBA Playoffs.)


    • I think for people who know what they’re doing (seasoned single-family investors), they could care less if the market turns around, and risk having more competition. I was just talking to a friend of mine who went to a courthouse steps auction. There were 3 solid bidders! The rest didn’t know what to do. The ceiling for opportunity is real high right now.

      There’s so many people making money right now…I’m reminded of Buffet’s investment in Goldman and Harley Davidson…cool billion dollars, easy.

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