A year ago I made predictions about the upcoming year. I didn’t try to predict the end of the world, like the Mayans, I just shared some thoughts about how the economy and stock market would fare. But, I found out, as many folks do, predictions about future events is not a easy thing to do. Now, I get a big kick out of reading and listening to folks pontificate on future events.
One of my favorites is a “financial expert” who writes bi-monthly columns for my local newspaper. He is pretty funny really. His political and economic views, which he always points out to the readers, are way out of the mainstream. Last year at this time he predicted there was an 80% chance of the major stock indexes dropping 40-60%. He gave all the reasons he believed this would happen. Actually he has been predicting this major drop since 2009 when he started writing this column. Been wrong a lot! This past fall he became a political prognosticator by predicting a Romney double digit win with a electoral landslide. At least he is consistent!
This year I thought I would post my rules of prognostication first:
- Occasionally someone will get a prediction correct. It is foolish to start believing they are going to be right again anytime soon;
- Anyone who thinks they can accurately predict future events, especially in the short run, is a fool;
- Anyone who believes some “experts” predictions about future events, especially in the short run, is a bigger fool;
- Anyone who plans their future based on an unusual event happening, especially in the short run, is the biggest fool of all; and finally
- Predictions are fun to do and consume – don’t take mine too seriously!
- A continuing political stalemate will give the media something to talk about all year;
- Taxes will go up for the wealthy who don’t have good tax attorneys;
- The world economy, despite some unforeseen negative events, will continue to improve sloooowly;
- Real Estate will continue a slow uphill climb;
- Stock indexes will end up higher at the end of the year;
- And finally, for those that take their retirement into their own hands, 2013 will be a wonderful year!
What are your predictions for the new year? Leave a comment below to let me know!
Thanks for reading and Happy New Year!
Photo: Mark Weaver